Talk Like A Watch Pro - The Big Comeback!

Okay, it's been a minute, but after putting on The HYPE a few months back, I am happy (and you are no-doubt relieved) to know that Watch Town still has the ability to generate its very own unique lexicon.

I will be providing a refresher, but first? Some new bon mots that will have you talking and feeling just like the big boys and girls in Watch Town -

"Deep South"

The direction retail prices go when your production exceeds your sales actuals by 500% or so. We all get these emails - "Last chance for huge savings!" A multitude of reasons are offered, but long story short? Someone over-spent their allowance and mom and dad aren't happy about it. As that other great commentator on the watch business (Michael Douglas as Gordon Gekko) would remind us - 

"The key to the game is capital reserves. If you don't have enough, you can't piss in the tall weeds with the big dogs."

"Nickeled for a dime" i.e. someone sold you a nickel for a dime

It's an expensive proposition to participate in a watch show, particularly in NYC. Approximately $8,000 USD will get you enough space to place a tray full of watches on a "modest" sized table while half of humanity lazily strolls past your booth. This, of course, is great news for alternative shows...

"New investment"

Someone's buying, someone else is selling. No more, no less.

"Nobody likes to hear that their baby is ugly"
Translation?  When you are asked - "What do you think of our novelties?"  You are really being asked - "Could you please offer an affirmation that this watch is great?"

"I'mGonna'stan"
A fictional country that is more a place of the imagination than an actual reality. I'mGonna'stan is a magical place where everything will happen soon, like tomorrow, and tomorrow never arrives.  

"Pick Your Poison"
Translation - you're screwed either way, and I don't really care.

"My friend"
Translation - You fucking asshole.

"You're just like the Tin-Man"
Translation - You've got no heart.  Usually reserved for sales managers just before they are "freed up to pursue new professional opportunities".

"We don't cover brands like that"
Translation - Pay me, and then maybe we'll cover you.

"Our writers are very busy, but a sure way to promote your brand is through a sponsored post!"

See above.

"We're a small, independent brand and can't afford advertising"
Translation - My best friend's spouse works for another media outlet and we already pay them. We're not going to pay you now, or ever, but you should still make time to cover us because, you never know ; )

"We don't make any decisions regarding marketing, sales or advertising during (insert BaselWorld, SIHH, JCK, etc.), but shoot me an email in a few weeks and we can follow-up then."
Translation - Of course we make decisions at BaselWorld, SIHH, JCK, etc., we just have no desire to listen to, consider or entertain any proposal that you might be offering.  But! Here's a nice paper tote bag and an outlandishly heavy catalog (filled with poor spelling and grammatical errors)!  Thanks for stopping by!

A Watches And Wondering Repeat - You Show Up Late To a Presentation? You Get a Night in the Box!

With yet another action-packed edition of Watches and Wonders nearly in the can, and the whinging and whining of Mr. Dufor regarding "pirates" still hanging in the Lake Geneva winds like a stale fart, I thought I might re-heat this one. It seems no matter who is running the high and mighty Swiss shows, they continue to make the same mistakes, never really bothering to learn from the past. So Ladies and Gentlemen, I present you with this reprise -

"You Show Up Late To a Presentation? You Get a Night in the Box!"

So it was not without some mirth that I was acquainted with the rules that have been set forth by the SIHH by a few different people who are attending.  This was shared over various conversations, so I need to be clear that I am only going by what I was told by some of my fellow members of the Fourth and Fifth Estate who have attended in the past and will attend this year as well.  Apparently, each attendee is provided with a briefing document that spells out the "behavioral" expectations of those members of the press who are attending.  I have been informed it is known as the "Code of Conduct".  And from the way they described it, it did not sound too dissimilar from a dormitory's rules list for a parochial / military boarding academy.  I mean, these are grown men and women traveling from the four corners of the globe to attend YOUR (Richemont's) fair at no small personal expense, and you essentially provide them a briefing document because you need to make sure that their behavior and attendance meets YOUR standards??? 

Anyway, it immediately brought to mind one of my favorite movies about journalistic pursuits in the luxury industry - Cool Hand Luke.  I will be paraphrasing here, so take this with the necessary amount of salt.

Shamelessly borrowed from the World-Wide Infoweb

Captain: What we've got here is... failure to communicate. Some men you just can't reach. 

Translation, you are all grown men and women who have traveled thousands of miles at no small expense, but we can't trust you to act like adults.  So were going to create a set of rules that you better follow, or you'll be spending the next Watches and Wonders with that asshole at the Blog Formerly Known As Tempus Fugit!

Shamelessly Borrowed from the world-wide infoweb

Shamelessly borrowed from the world-wide infoweb

Carr:  First bell's at five minutes of eight when you will get in your bunk. Last bell is at eight. Any man not in his bunk at eight spends the night in the box.
 
Translation, you better be on time for any event you are scheduled for.  And don't try that "I didn't have a watch" excuse!

Shamelessly borrowed from the world-wide infoweb

Carr:  These here spoons you keep with you. Any man loses his spoon spends a night in the box.

Translation, you have agreed to attend ruinously expensive dinners and cocktail parties.  It would be REALLY BAD MANNERS if you don't show up...ON TIME!  Miss or be late at your peril...


Carr:  Them clothes got laundry numbers on them. You remember your number and always wear the ones that has your number. Any man forgets his number spends a night in the box.

   
Translation, suit, tie, formal business wear.  Interesting to relate, one member of the Fifth Estate was banned a few years back for not complying with the dress code.  Calls were made, hands were wrung, tears were shed, and he is back in the fold.  Let's hope that Men's Wearhouse has something in his size (extra lumpy).

Shamelessly borrowed from the world-wide infoweb

Carr: No one'll sit in the bunks with dirty pants on. Any man with dirty pants on sitting on the bunks spends a night in the box.
 
Translation, Richemont and the SIHH is paying for a few nights accommodation for some of you (WHAT THE F*&K?), and not for breakfast and taxes. And for the rest of you, there might still be room at the YMCA, or you can sleep on a park bench.

So thank you for spending your time and your money to cover our brands - make sure you follow the rules, and enjoy your stay!

Shamelessly borrowed from the world-wide infoweb

When The Glass Is Not Even Half-Full, But Broken

It's time for the semi-annual cut the shit episode here at Henki Time. Having spent the better part of the last week in the real capital of Swiss watch making (that would be Biel/Bienne, Le Locle, La Chaux-de-Fonds and the surrounding areas), let's just say that the hot air being pumped out of Geneva, Zurich and other "fancier" places is just that.

There are many tell-tale signs, but the most obvious are the rumors (now growing louder and more frequent) about layoffs in the Jura and surrounding area. This will, of course, have zero impact on the shot-callers and big dogs, but most likely the watch makers and roll players who did as instructed. While the big dogs drop off their suits for a quick cleaning before the Kabuki theatre that is Watches and Wondering  the realities of poor decision making and poorer oversight continue to haunt the industry as a whole. But not to worry, the press releases will certainly only reflect triumph!

But what Gregory Pons of Business Montres refers to as "Musical Chairs" is no game to take lightly. There are a lot of people depending on each other to make everything work out. More than a few suppliers are delivering even later than usual. This then impacts supply deliveries, watch assemblies and ultimately sales. But it is highly unlikely that any big bosses are going anywhere. No, where the real pain is being felt is most likely going to be the actual people who make the actual watches that you might, gentle reader, actually buy ; ) 

Think I'm full of it? Well, let's examine what was once referred to as "trickle-down" economics. The idea was that the bounty enjoyed at the top will overflow and trickle down. Let's start with the carrion crows of Watch Town - the Fourth and Fifth Estates. For many of my brothers and sisters out their hustling for whatever might not be gobbled up by the bigger outlets, times are looking pretty tough. And even the mighty are feeling the pinch of uncertainty. After just a month or so on the masthead of a certain media outlet, the Chief Operating Officer who appeared in January is no longer there. As is often the case at this certain media outlet, it is impossible to really know the comings and goings as they are rarely clearly articulated. But it is clear that the Masthead has shrunk considerably in the recent years, as has the amount of coverage.

Now it is also interesting to consider that press invites for the show formerly known as the SIHH (Watches and Wonders) are still handed out to exactly the same cast of characters from the same outlets with - you guessed it, the same impact. Now I know that this is going to sound crazy, but isn't the idea of marketing to spread the word about your product BEYOND its already existing customer / enthusiast base?

But that certain media outelt and the other big dogs need not worry, the same contortions will still be performed by the same brands to ensure that media outlets that cover them once or twice a year will have multiple invitations (which in turn ensures that other outlets will be excluded). Say what you want about BaselWorld, it was a democratic meritocracy. Anyone who was willing to get themselves there would be able to get appointments with brands. But as someone who has been referred to as notable, but not welcome at SIHH / Watches And Wonders, I continue to be astonished by the merry-go-round that is media relations in Watch Town.

And in truth, the approach to media relations is no different than Watch Town's approach to most everything else. 

So what? What's the point? In fairness, I am not saying anything here that I haven't been saying for years. And maybe that is exactly the point! I think that probably, deep down? Watch Town's residents don't really want anything to change. 

Despite impassioned mini speeches no doubt fueled by multiple servings of ardent social lubricants, the same mistakes will continue to be made, because ultimately? Change is probably a bit too scary.

I took a moment this past Thursday to reflect on the nearly 14 years I've spent covering the comings and goings of Watch Town at Caffe Specttacolo in front of the Biel/Bienne station waiting for my train back to Zurich airport. And I must say that I thought about it all and laughed a bit, raising more than one eyebrow from my fellow cafe guests.  Because it occurred to me, that despite its flaws and frustrations, I do love this world that is Watch Town ; )

Special Watch Town Linguistics Repeat - Talk Like A Watch Insider - Part the Second

This first ran nearly 3 years ago, and I thought it might be interesting to reheat it -

Talk Like A Watch Insider - Part the Second

I have, in previous posts, shared some of the rich idiomatic language unique to the watch business. But I also realize that like any language, it can vary by region or specialization.

And today I thought it might be useful to share with you some of what a colleague has referred to as Henki-Speak.

You might want to turn the lights down and have young, impressionable children leave the room as some of the language is going to get a little blue...

1. The Big Dipper - generally refers to one or two outlets who respond to most press releases with a rate card. The response is invariable couched in regret that the "Team" is just so busy that they don't have time to cover your watch, but one sure-fire way to get coverage would be to "take advantage of" their special "sponsored" or "partner" content. This is a pretty way to discuss payola that leaves enough grey area that some brands will still allow the influential outlet to "dip their hands" into their wallet. Hence - The Big Dipper.

2. To Go Deep South - When a retailer immediately offers 30% off a watch before you can even start to negotiate.

3. To Go All War and Peace - When someone writing about watches insists on taking 5,000 or so words to write about something that really only needed 250. Based on the somewhat verbose prose of one Mr. Tolstoy. As it applies to digital watch journalism, less is sometimes more.

4. Pralines and dick - Typically referring to a big swinging dick in the industry who perpetually treats pretty much everyone like shit, yet somehow still hangs onto his crown. Not to be sexist, but almost exclusively males. Originates with Wayne's World. "If he were an ice cream flavor, he'd be pralines and dick."

5. A Wimpy - When a retailer, brand, or client continues to delay paying while at the same time requesting more products and or services. Based on the character J. Wellington Wimpy from Popeye, who probably could have taught modern day hustlers a lesson or two on street survival. Famous for the proposition - "I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today."

Shamelessly borrowed from the World-Wide Info-Web

6. To Go All Mojo Nixon - For those unfamiliar, Mojo Nixon and Skid Roper were popular for a hot minute back in the 80s, famous for sensitive ballads like "Where the Hell's My Money?", a song about playing a sold out concert and having the club owner try to avoid paying. This is a situation near and dear for many of us who, on occasion, have made the mistake of not insisting on a cash retainer before delivering any work. Which can lead us to react this way to a Wimpy -

Courtesy of Meme on Me

7. Janky - Originates in the Steel City (that's Pittsburgh to you). Essentially meaning of inferior quality, construction, or worth.

8. The Transfer Window Opens - Essentially someone either lost their job, or got a new one. A slight parody of the Transfer Window in European Football (or soccer). Not unlike the trade deadline in American (US) sports like baseball, it is the only time during the season where a team can trade or "transfer" a player that they are no longer so enamored with. Although there is no official transfer deadline in Watch Town, the addition and / or subtraction of executives tends to follow a shared time frame.

9. Buy the Widow a Drink - buying yourself and your colleagues a round of champagne due to your / their success. Based on Barbe-Nicole Clicquot Ponsardin, the famous widow who grew Veuve Clicquot into something truly dynamic. I use this phrase typically when I have succeeded when it seemed highly likely that I would not.

10. My friend - I still maintain this means just the opposite when directed at you by a brand representative. To quote Anthony Bourdain -
"But if you use the word pal - or worse, the phrase my friend - in my kitchen, it'll make people paranoid. My friend famously means "asshole" in the worst and most sincere sense of the word."

What I've Learned - The Big Comeback

As I mentioned yesterday, I have been working Watch Town adjacent for the better part of 20 years now. And as is tradition with this outlet, from time to time I like to reflect on just what I've learned on this little journey.

1. There will always be someone smarter, faster, and better than you.

This is true on every side of the business - manufacturing, marketing, sales, and the Fourth and Fifth Estates. Recently mighty retail empires have contracted to the point of near collapse, and the former aspiring have taken the field. And once mighty journalists representing once mightier print and digital outlets are now starting to dust off their CVs. Some have found their way to brands where new positions in marketing departments have been created just for them! Let's hope they last. 

And now we get ready for the big payback!

2. Thought the SIHH was snotty? Watches and Wonders served up an even colder cup of coffee to several loyal, consistent attendees from the press corps in the parlor game better known as "High School Was The Best Time of My Life, and Now I Get To Relive it!". Needless to say, it is clear that certain media outlets will never be seeing the inside of the Palexpo because certain newly minted brand representatives are carrying the sorts of grudges that would give Prom Queen First Runners Up a hernia.

3. A Sale is a sale not when the watches arrive at the retail outlet, but when they leave said outlet on the wrist of a paying customer. It is great to see the enthusiasm of the brand and of the retail partner. And in a perfect world, all of those watches would leave through the front door at close to full retail. In the real world, high volume typically equals thinner margins. It's great that the export numbers are up, in the end it means very little in terms of actual sales.

4. "My friend" still means "You &*$king asshole!"

And I will close this as I often do with a thought about the impermanence and malleability of those who live and work in Watch Town, as first shared by George C. Scott as General George Patton -

"For over a thousand years, Roman conquerors returning from the wars enjoyed the honor of a triumph - a tumultuous parade. In the procession came trumpeters and musicians and strange animals from the conquered territories, together with carts laden with treasure and captured armaments. The conqueror rode in a triumphal chariot, the dazed prisoners walking in chains before him. Sometimes his children, robed in white, stood with him in the chariot, or rode the trace horses. A slave stood behind the conqueror, holding a golden crown, and whispering in his ear a warning: that all glory is fleeting."

When the Circus (doesn't) Come to Town...

Word reached the North Shore offices (albeit delayed by lack of a press release) that the "Greatest Watch Show That Ever Was..."

Will now never be.

Courtesy of Netflix

The "Fair Formerly Known As Swiss Creative Lab" that had a stranglehold on first the Ramada, then the Hyperon of Basel came a cropper as collateral damage in the wake of BaselWorld's demise. But all was not lost watch fans! A plan was hatched to offer an outdoor event in August in Neuchatel. It would combine watches, pens, jewelry, art (live, performance, and otherwise), and God knows what else. It was to be known as IMAGINATON.

If I am very honest, the first proposed iteration resembled a plate of spaghetti tossed against the wall with the hope of benefiting from what "stuck". Unfortunately, exterior circumstances forced the organizers to cancel the fair and postpone for the next year. And the following year it was postponed again. Finally, 2023 was going to be THE YEAR! The stars had seemed to align, and the organizers were excited to share that IMAGINATION would take place the same week as Watches and Wonders. And that, gentle reader, is exactly why The IMAGINATION fair experienced a third consecutive "failure to launch". 

A simple truth that is one no longer worth fighting - in the war of attrition that was the fight for hearts and minds at the spring Swiss watch fairs, BaselWorld quit the field leaving Watches and Wonders to stake their claim as the dominant show. Last year another pretender emerged - Time To Watches. If there was ever a watch fair with a worse name than IMAGINATION, this was probably it. When asked why a name that appeared so shambolic to native English speakers was chosen, the reply was that when you translated Time To Watches from English to German, it actually sounded cool. Which of course begs the question - why name it in English in the first place? This is why Wes Anderson should never be allowed to organize a watch fair. And without putting too fine a point on it, last year's Time To Watches show was a bit of a turd. Several "pro days" (press and retailers only), one or two days open to the public, and the press only really showing up for the last day, and writing, well, Jack-shit. And Jack had already left town...

At least one of the "big dogs" who availed themselves of the temporary kennel that was the inaugural Time to Watches has already sniffed out greener back yards and moved over to Watches and Wonders where they can pee in the tall weeds with the other "big dogs". So it will be curious to see who avails themselves of the watch show that sounds cool when translated to German. But they might need a better hook than that, and a famous (albeit inconveniently located) university with sub-optimal facilities for hosting a watch fair, or pretty much any trade fair.

For 2023, the definition of Haute Horology has magically expanded to include brands that never would have been deemed so in the good old days of the SIHH. But fear not! The snotty, exclusive, "don't even think of asking for a press invitation" spirit of the SIHH is alive and well with Watches and Wonders. Several media outlets who have been going to the event for YEARS and exhaustively covering the participating brands eagerly opened their Watches and Wonders emails only to find that they had been spurned and would not be receiving an invitation to cross the burning sands to the oasis of all things Haute and Naught. Essentially - "Thanks for your tireless coverage of us, now go get stuffed". Which was a cold cup of coffee even by SIHH/Watches and Wonders standards.

So get ready, we'll all be watching and wondering in a little over a month's time!

Until then, enjoy your watches.

Watches and Wondering - Waiting for Godot

With the dearth of new releases out there, and the notable silence from the fair's organizers, it is seeming less and less likely that 2022 (at least March/April) will see the return of large scale, in-person watch fairs in Geneva.

Credit: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0276613/

On the one hand, it appears that the latest COVID surge has peaked in several countries. But reaching the peak does not put us back to a safe infection level... at least not yet. Geneva is one of the strictest cantons in Switzerland in terms of health and safety policy, and for all of the foreign buyers and press that hope to come to attend a show there are quite a few hoops that they will have to jump through - I say this having travelled in September and November. And that's just to get into Switzerland. I will also make clear that I agree with Switzerland's stance. Which I guess means that Novak Djocovic won't be making any personal appearances at the Hublot booth in the near future.

China and Hong Kong represent the largest block of customers for Richemont and most likely LVMH and Kering. For those folks, getting to Switzerland is one thing. Coming back home? Well, that's quite the other. Lengthy quarantine requirements have marked a significant drop in travel both from and to this region. So with all of that being said, I don't expect that a lot of these folks will be opting to attend. And let's not even get started with the US, where (for better or worse) public health and safety has become more of a political issue than, well, a health and safety issue. Unless the Swiss government opts to drop the vaccination requirements for entry at the Zurich, Basel, and Geneva airports, a large swath of folks from North America will be staying home. 

That leaves the Middle East, Africa, South America and parts of Europe. This is not to say that these are not important markets or customers, but it is to say that they do not, unfortunately, represent the same percentage of turnover for the brands.

And lastly, there are the organizers of the show itself. Watches and Wonders, along with its predecessor the SIHH, went to great lengths to create an atmosphere of not only exclusivity, but exclusion in the past. And while it might be "the only game in town", I give Watches and Wonders about as much consideration as I do NOMOS
Glashütte, which is to say I don't consider it at all.

2022 - It's On Like Donkey-Kong!

It would seem that we are on the cusp of a wee-bit of a modern day Renaissance! While COVID19 is not fully in the rear-view mirror (more like the rabid dog running alongside the car trying to bite the side mirror off), it does look as if we are finally at the end of a long tunnel and about to cautiously step into the light.

And for many of us, that means an opportunity to travel again, and for the watch shows to come back. Watches and Wonders has made it official, they will be back in the saddle in 2022 in person in Geneva.

And the Fair Formerly Known as BaselWorld will try to finally debut their new name and livery in 2022 - Hour Universe (just in case you forgot, it is apparently still "We Time", whatever the Hell that is supposed to mean).  There was meant to be a live stream announcement today, conveniently scheduled for 10:00 AM Basel Time (4:00 AM NYC, 1:00 AM Los Angeles, but luckily for the Chinese market - 4:00 PM Beijing time).  Needless to say, I had planned to catch it up on YouTube but then got this announcement yesterday -

We regret that due to unforeseen circumstances we see ourselves forced to postpone the livestream press conference that was scheduled for Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 10.00 am.
We sincerely apologize for an inconvenience this may have caused but promise to give you notice ahead of the new date

Well, grammar and punctuation notwithstanding, I can only assume that if and when the folks at MCH recover their Zoom password they will reschedule and we'll find out the date for BaselWorld 2 Electric Boogaloo - The Revenge of Lausanne! Remember all that money you got screwed out of last year watch brands? Well, they changed their name - (TWICE!) so hopefully you've forgotten all about it!

And for those of you who can't wait that long, just imagine! The thriving metropolis of Neuchâtel is hosting the event that (let's be honest), almost none of us have been waiting for. But let's see if avarice triumphs over common sense. Apparently shuttle service from Geneva will be available if you just can't be asked to hop on the train or rent a car.

Watches and Wondering...

So, another watch show in the books, and MY FIRST EVER Watches and Wonders / SIHH show under my belt and I think I can honestly say, so what?

I think it's important to go back a few steps to get a better handle on just exactly what Watches and Wonders started life as, what it has attempted to move to, and why it's clear that this year's iteration was really not quite ready for primetime.

Watches and Wonders morphed out of the SIHH. The SIHH was a thinly veiled pr piece for Richemont and a few select "chums" such as AP and one or two other "elite" brands. It was a closed shop as to who would receive an invitation to attend as press and it was run with a precise schedule that demanded not only your attendance, but unflagging participation in every event, presser, etc. Failure to fully comply would mean expulsion (or worse).

And then along came COVID-19, and with it - opportunity!  BaselWorld for all of its egalitarian appeal has been mismanaged for some time. Brands were frustrated, retailers hated going, and many of my colleagues in the Fourth and Fifth Estates would attend somewhat erratically.  And there was the small opening that the folks in Geneva had been waiting for! One by one, the dominoes began to topple.  Rolex, Patek, LVMH, and the rest of the big dogs took it on the heel and toe and headed south.

And then, the big virtual event that we had all been waiting for...

Fell flat.

Communication from the organizers amounted to a fairly anemic press release each morning. A "watch media personality" hosted a so-called "morning show". Not unlike a lot of Zoom meetings we have to show up for in our normal workday, it was more of an inconvenience than a pleasure to sit through presentations that ranged from very polished to something that a junior high school AV Club might have knocked together during 5th period study hall.

Press releases from the brands were sporadic and in some instances non-existent. Press coverage primarily focused on Rolex, Tudor, a wee bit on some Richemont brands (admittedly not too much) and finally Patek on the final day.

My friend who has seen more watch shows than most of us has a saying that I have applied in my working life -

"You can't email a handshake".

Now granted, in this day and age we have a pandemic that is prohibiting travel and close contact. So maybe remove handshake and replace it with elbow-bump, but the point is simple - a show needs gravitas and excitement.  And frankly? It needs better organization. Simply put, for the amount of money brands spent to participate in this year's event, they would be forgiven for feeling a bit shortchanged on this one.  Now the sales argument could have been this - "Participate in our virtual show this year, and we promise to include you next year when we are back "in person".

Another intriguing feature was the emergence of privateers in a so-called open show. "News" (excuse me while I die laughing) outlets doubling as PR / Marketing agencies cutting deals with brands to create content for them and in some instances releasing it on their own platforms in advance of a release coming from the brand's own PR staff to the rest of the press corps. Call me old-fashioned, but just as there is a reason why foxes aren't typically employed by Tyson or Perdue to manage the chicken coops, it's maybe not the best idea to sell out on the idea of a fair and open press/communications strategy out of convenience, expedience or simple laziness. Now the typical refrain I hear on social media is - "Hey, I'm trying to make a living."  

And that's as may be, but to quote that other great commentator on the watch business, Robert Townsend in Hollywood Shuffle -

As Reality Settles In - Watches and Wonders is Not Such a Hard Pass

Well, things must be getting chancy! Believe it or don't, the "Conciergerie" from Watches and Wonders has personally invited me to participate in their exciting new virtual show! You may remember Tempus Fugit's previous invitations and visits to the show formerly known as the SIHH... 

as in, you got it - NEVER! Five years of begging, pleading, offering to clean the toilets if ONLY I could get an invitation.  The response was, five years running - "Go piss up a rope!"  

When I finally did get a grudgingly worded invite back in 2017 - encouraging me to kindly consult the local bus station to make sure it was okay to sleep in the waiting area, I was so over the whole experience that I asked the kind people at Richemont as well as "The Man With 2 First Names" to kindly give my invitation to someone who actually cared, as that person was most certainly not me.

So here's the tricky part - every year in the past I would get invitations from the participating brands, sometimes nearly every one of them, only to be told by Richemont and The Man With 2 First Names, sorry, you are not welcome. And to be abundantly clear, I was not the only one. But by the fifth time around, having spent the entire year exhaustively chasing down every potential story for every brand in the Richemont stable, it really dawned on me that it was a profound waste of my time and energy.

While I certainly wish the fair formerly dominated by Richemont the best of success, I think I'll wait for the download on YouTube. 

Reheated Leftovers - The Dunning-Kruger Effect

This first ran in April of last year, but judging from the refusal of the denizens of Watch Town to accept and live in reality, it seems like a good time to re-heat these leftovers. While this post was primarily focusing on the rapacious nature of the big groups and the Spring shows, it speaks even more urgently to the glaring lack of self-awareness of the shot callers of Watch Town.

So pour yourself a glass of red, we're having leftovers -

Like any crisis, COVID-19 has laid bare a lot of realities that were probably always there, but that could continue on until external events made it impossible for them to remain unacknowledged.

For those of you unfamiliar, the Dunning-Kruger effect, its name is derived from a study conducted by David Dunning and Justin Kruger back just before the turn of the century (1999). The study exposed a very interesting paradox - in several instances average performing people tended to place themselves in the upper echelons in terms of performance. Curious to relate? In many instances, high performing people tended to down-play their abilities, ranking themselves lower on the scale than their abilities justified.

For those of you who are more visual (and enjoy video over text) here is a fun look at the Dunning-Kruger effect courtesy of Trace Dominguez and After Skool -

Cognitive Bias exists everywhere, and we all struggle with it on many levels.  The recent devolution of BaselWorld into a full-blown 3-ring circus is a great example.  And I want to jump right out of the gate and make clear that BaselWorld is only one of the Ringleaders of this train wreck.  

In Tent Number 1:

Remember the bold words of one mayor of Watch Town who insisted that his brand was special, and didn't actually need a show?  And then like a carpet bagger tried to ease south to Geneva to announce (what in hindsight) was a pretty ham-fisted attempt to grab some press ink with some other like minded mayors for a "mini-show" of carefully curated brands?  (editor's note: along with the use of "my friend" and "timepiece" could we agree to ban the term "curated"?  It's complete and utter bullshit.)  

In Tent Number 2:

If Animal Farm were ever to be re-told with denizens of Watch Town as the protagonists, the advent of the FHH show would be familiar.

George Orwell Animal Farm

Here's the thing, you don't tug on Superman's cape.  It was pretty foolhardy of the BaselWorld organizers to assume that they could try to give Rolex and Patek an "Atomic Wedgie" -

Courtesy of the Simpsons

Now I cannot claim to know or understand every thought process or motivation that runs through the storied hallways of Big Green in Geneva.  I respect my place in the hierarchy ; )

But what I can say is this - while Rolex, Tudor, Patek and Chanel had every right to pick up their tents and move them south, let's not misconstrue that as a blow for the Proletariat of Watch Town.  The "letter of secession" makes it pretty clear that these four brands made their decision based on what would work for them.  Several other not-so-fancy brands may not be invited to join the party.

And ladies and gentlemen, train your eyes to the center ring here in the Big Top:
BaselWorld was clearly living in a different reality than a lot of the larger brands that were willing to continue to pay the price to be there.  And truthfully?  These are some of the real victims in this three-ring shit-show.  If you are a Richemont brand?  You are safe, Watches and Wonders has you covered.  If you are viewed "luxurious and exclusive enough"?  Not a problem, FHH will certainly deem you worthy and you can join them.  But what about some of those other big, notable, and dare I say it - POPULAR brands that actually sell a LOT of watches?  Where do they get to go?  

You get the idea.

Now I still like my personal crack-pot theory that Hayek the Younger has been sitting back in his stronghold in the Biel/Bienne hinterlands, biding his time and waiting to come back to BaselWorld. But then again, I have frequently been guilty of the Dunning-Kruger Effect ; )

Louis Moinet and Rebellion Head South

News reached the North Shore offices of Tempus Fugit that in the ongoing struggle between two egomaniacal show organizations, two more brands have slipped through the rapacious grasp of "The Fair Formerly Known As BaselWorld". Louis Moinet and Rebellion have both decamped to the SIHH.  And yes sports fans, what that really means is that in 2022, you will likely see both brands head south to Geneva.

What began as a rivalry and morphed into a battle of attrition has now devolved into a rather humiliating smackdown. In fairness, Louis Moinet and Rebellion do not a fair make, but add this to the raft of brands that fled prior to lock down - Rolex, Patek and others, and you really begin to understand that there is probably more at work here than simply a desire to speak French as opposed to German.  

Make no mistake, watch fairs will come back after COVID. One historian/economist has mused that post COVID-19 will likely be similar to post Spanish Flu pandemic which ushered in the Roaring 20s. Yes, there was also the end of the Great War, but those two things together had radically changed the world for several years. Peace and a cootie-free environment drove economic growth, and also a strong desire to re-connect to the world at large. But contrary to what the suits in Basel would have you believe, this is still at least 9 months away. That is still very positive news, but the successful control of COVID is not something that can simply be willed into happening. And claiming that "every safety precaution will be taken" does not fill me (and clearly not many others) with confidence. 

But with that being said, if the folks in Basel could wait a beat, take this year to try and actually connect with the brands on a level beyond simply getting their money, they have a real opportunity to create a much better show. And as someone who has been to several of these, let me state clearly - a fashion show, expensive sports cars, and over-priced in-hall restaurants with ridiculous waiting times to be served are not innovative ideas. But here are a few crazy ones that might work, should anyone in Basel be listening:

1.  Provide brands with a fair price.  Period.

2.  Accept the reality that you are no longer viewed as necessary. Quit the strongman tactics. FOMO is no longer a realistic negotiating tool.  

3.  Regain your customer's trust.

4.  Make the show length realistic. In truth, the fair should not go beyond the Monday. Traffic dwindles down to next to nothing. Have the show from Wednesday (press day) through Monday.  Given the much smaller number of brands, journalists and retailers, this will be better for EVERYONE.

5.  Start treating the brands, journalists and retail partners as if you actually care whether or not they attend your event.

6.  Go small now so that you can grow back into being big.

"You can't get a little bit pregnant, son." What Lou Mannheim Could Teach The Watch Fair Organizers

So...

The same folks who said that a portion of a brand's pre-paid fees for BaselWorld would shift to next year's fair, then changed that idea to a partial refund, then canceled next year's fair altogether, then hinted they would move to Lausanne with a new name (which also didn't come to fruition)... 

Then - SURPRISE!  They announced a new and improved "BaselWorld - the Revenge" fair under yet ANOTHER name, back in Basel!  Yes, still the same people, although now operating yet another banner.

And it appears to their way of thinking that the folks behind SIHH/ Watches and Wonders are a bunch of weenies. They see no reason that this fair won't happen. I mean, c'mon, it's WE TIME baby!

While it might indeed be "We Time" it is YOUR HEALTH, so you might want to put your faith in someone with some actual knowledge of public health and safety... 

I refer you to this reporting from Europa Star -

https://www.europastar.com/time-business/1004092384-houruniverse-we-re-on-track-for-2021.html

Ego is a curious thing, and it is more dangerous when coupled with a refusal to consider that maybe, just maybe, you will have to put your plans on hold for an additional 6 months for the sake of the public good.

I will leave you with the words of that other great commentator on the watch industry - Lou Mannheim as played by Hal Holbrook -

Wall Street, 1987 Directed by Oliver Stone. Charlie Sheen as Bud Fix (L) and Hal Holbrook as Lou Mannheim (R)

"The main thing about money, Bud, is that it makes you do things you don't want to do."

I strongly recommend travel insurance for next year. And remember - "You can't get a little bit pregnant, son."

The Laureato 42

From Girard-Perregaux -

Courtesy of Girard-Perregaux

I appreciate that there is a tribe out there that believes quite flatly that if you're not wearing a Royal Oak or a Nautilus, you are a pretender.

So while it is true that the Royal Oak came first, and was designed by Gerald Genta, I think in many ways the story of the Girard-Perregaux Laureato has a bit more of an intriguing past. If my understanding is correct, the original was in fact - quartz, as GP was one of the few Swiss brands to actually take the new technology seriously. It was also not the result of a famous designer but rather, the work of a (as far as anyone knows) anonymous Milan (that's Italy, not Ohio) based architect.  

Unfortunately, not unlike Girard-Perregaux itself, the Laureato has gone through more than a few twists and turns, some more unfortunate than others.  But it does seem that finally, just maybe, GP has settled on a design vocabulary for this collection, one that they will follow for more than just the next "season" or until the next CEO moves in. Here's hoping!

The pertinents for this one are as follows -

CASE
Material: Steel
Diameter: 42,00 mm
Height: 10.88 mm
Case-back: Sapphire crystal
Dial: Blue with "Clou de Paris" pattern
Water resistance: 10 ATM

MOVEMENT
CALIBRE
Number: GP01800-0013
Type: Self-winding mechanical movement
Diameter: 30.00 mm (13 1/4''')
Height: 3.97 mm
Frequency: 28,800 Vib/h – (4 Hz)
Number of components: 191
Jewels: 28
Oscillating weight: Steel
Finishes: Côtes de Genève, circular graining and bevelling
Power reserve: Min. 54 hours
FUNCTIONS
Hours, minutes, centre seconds, date.

BRACELET
Size: 27.00 / 18.00 mm
Material: Steel
Buckle: Triple folding
Buckle material: Steel

Stage One, Denial - Or Deja Vu All Over Again

Anyone who has made it through Psych 101 will be familiar with the Five Stages of Grief. Today we're going to focus on Stage One - Denial. It is ironic, because in the last 12 months Watch Town has already gone through the Five Stages from Denial to Acceptance and all of the sudden, with the panic laden announcements of several watch shows over the past fortnight, it just goes to show that FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and the refusal to objectively look at reality can make for a dangerous combination.

For those unfamiliar, or who spent more time staring up at the undersides of barroom tables, here is a quick refresher on the Five Stages of Grief and how some of the former mighty watch shows have attempted to navigate them -

DENIAL -

For those of us who work with brands in brand management, we got to see this first hand this past March and April. Even when all of the signs were as clear as, well, this one -

Shamelessly borrowed from the worldwide infoweb

sales agents from the shows kept pestering brands to sign contracts and make deposits - even up to the day before the shows were cancelled. 

ANGER - 

Well, this one was mutual as hotels, airlines, and show organizers invoked the "Act of God" clause which loosely translates to - "Fuck you, pay me!"

And it was met with an equally emphatic reply from the brands:

"Hey, show organizer - Fuck me? Do you read lips? Fuck YOU!"

BARGAINING -

This was where airlines would let you re-schedule your flight (not refund), hotels decided that they would hold brand and retail owners feet to the fire and make them pay for rooms that they would never be able to use, and the shows tried various ham-fisted approaches to make it seem as if - "Hey, we really do care about you!  We're all in this together!  That's why we're not giving you shit, and Jack just left town, so we think it's only fair that you share our pain with us and even though we are not giving you anything, you should help mitigate our loss." Which loosely translates to - we are going to minimize our losses by maximizing yours.  Long story short?  Not too many takers.

DEPRESSION -

Really speaks for itself. This is where several venders and the shows wallowed in self-pity from the self-inflicted wounds they were now acutely feeling.

ACCEPTANCE -

Shows cancelled not just for this year, but next year also. 

So the dust began to settle, some big brands realized that, in fact, they would need to go heavy into shifting to the new reality and go heavy into direct to consumer models.  A few mid-level brands still don't really seem to understand this, so if there's a model you're looking for but the brand doesn't seem to understand the new reality we're living in?  Just sit tight, you'll be able to pick it up in the grey market soon enough ; )

But Watch Town is a funny place, where a lot of decisions are made without any real reflection.  A few of these shows decided, after they said that there would be no show (and making it easier to receive and not return fees), that actually, they would have shows next year, with a new name, and in some cases - a new location! And it would be bigger, better and (to quote that other great commentator on the watch business, Kool Moe Dee) deffer than ANY watch show before or after!

So how ya' like me now?

And had everyone been living in reality, watching the news, realizing that COVID-19 is not on any political or economic side, and is not going away anytime soon it is HIGHLY unlikely that most people are going to want to go near an airplane or a crowded, heavily populated, enclosed space with potential virus carriers from the four corners of the globe.

But as always, we will wait and we will see.