Reheated Leftovers - The Dunning-Kruger Effect

This first ran in April of last year, but judging from the refusal of the denizens of Watch Town to accept and live in reality, it seems like a good time to re-heat these leftovers. While this post was primarily focusing on the rapacious nature of the big groups and the Spring shows, it speaks even more urgently to the glaring lack of self-awareness of the shot callers of Watch Town.

So pour yourself a glass of red, we're having leftovers -

Like any crisis, COVID-19 has laid bare a lot of realities that were probably always there, but that could continue on until external events made it impossible for them to remain unacknowledged.

For those of you unfamiliar, the Dunning-Kruger effect, its name is derived from a study conducted by David Dunning and Justin Kruger back just before the turn of the century (1999). The study exposed a very interesting paradox - in several instances average performing people tended to place themselves in the upper echelons in terms of performance. Curious to relate? In many instances, high performing people tended to down-play their abilities, ranking themselves lower on the scale than their abilities justified.

For those of you who are more visual (and enjoy video over text) here is a fun look at the Dunning-Kruger effect courtesy of Trace Dominguez and After Skool -

Cognitive Bias exists everywhere, and we all struggle with it on many levels.  The recent devolution of BaselWorld into a full-blown 3-ring circus is a great example.  And I want to jump right out of the gate and make clear that BaselWorld is only one of the Ringleaders of this train wreck.  

In Tent Number 1:

Remember the bold words of one mayor of Watch Town who insisted that his brand was special, and didn't actually need a show?  And then like a carpet bagger tried to ease south to Geneva to announce (what in hindsight) was a pretty ham-fisted attempt to grab some press ink with some other like minded mayors for a "mini-show" of carefully curated brands?  (editor's note: along with the use of "my friend" and "timepiece" could we agree to ban the term "curated"?  It's complete and utter bullshit.)  

In Tent Number 2:

If Animal Farm were ever to be re-told with denizens of Watch Town as the protagonists, the advent of the FHH show would be familiar.

George Orwell Animal Farm

Here's the thing, you don't tug on Superman's cape.  It was pretty foolhardy of the BaselWorld organizers to assume that they could try to give Rolex and Patek an "Atomic Wedgie" -

Courtesy of the Simpsons

Now I cannot claim to know or understand every thought process or motivation that runs through the storied hallways of Big Green in Geneva.  I respect my place in the hierarchy ; )

But what I can say is this - while Rolex, Tudor, Patek and Chanel had every right to pick up their tents and move them south, let's not misconstrue that as a blow for the Proletariat of Watch Town.  The "letter of secession" makes it pretty clear that these four brands made their decision based on what would work for them.  Several other not-so-fancy brands may not be invited to join the party.

And ladies and gentlemen, train your eyes to the center ring here in the Big Top:
BaselWorld was clearly living in a different reality than a lot of the larger brands that were willing to continue to pay the price to be there.  And truthfully?  These are some of the real victims in this three-ring shit-show.  If you are a Richemont brand?  You are safe, Watches and Wonders has you covered.  If you are viewed "luxurious and exclusive enough"?  Not a problem, FHH will certainly deem you worthy and you can join them.  But what about some of those other big, notable, and dare I say it - POPULAR brands that actually sell a LOT of watches?  Where do they get to go?  

You get the idea.

Now I still like my personal crack-pot theory that Hayek the Younger has been sitting back in his stronghold in the Biel/Bienne hinterlands, biding his time and waiting to come back to BaselWorld. But then again, I have frequently been guilty of the Dunning-Kruger Effect ; )

BaselWorld 2 Electric Boogaloo - The Revenge

Or otherwise known as HourUniverse.  

So the first thing you need to know about HourUniverse is that it is RESOLUTE! Apparently it is resolutely various different things which the press release takes great pains to point out.  So I guess I will share my feelings with a resolutely bullshit free commentary.

After collecting fees and providing NOTHING (actually that's not fair, they did provide a constant stream of payment demands to brands both big and small) the folks behind BaselWorld 2020 are hoping that a name change and (a truly goofy press release) will help those same brands forget that these are the same "kind, patient souls" who demanded monies even when it was clear that they could not and would not provide any services as recently as this spring.  

So when I received the news that it is now - "WE TIME", I had to take a moment to wipe the coffee off of my laptop screen that had traveled swiftly and unexpectedly from my mouth, up through and out of my nose and onto my MacBook Air.

So Mr. and Ms. Brand Owner - forget about all that money you got stuck for, because it's WE TIME! 

Shamelessly borrowed from the worldwide infoweb

But in the interest of letting you judge for yourself, here is the announcement just as it skittered into the Tempus Fugit inbox -

HOURUNIVERSE :
A NEW PLATFORM THAT DEFINES THE FUTURE

A global digital platform active all year round
And a show designed as a grand festival of networking and experience

A new type of platform is being created. A total unification of the digital with the physical, unprecedented on the scale of the watchmaking, jewellery and gemstones industries.

A digital networking, business, information and content platform, active 365 days a year.

From February 2021, beyond borders and travel restrictions, digital, global, active throughout the year, HourUniverse will begin to assemble the watchmaking, jewellery and gemstone community, in the broadest sense of the word, by offering a new form of interaction. 

By defining one's professional profile, presenting one's activity, unveiling one's innovations, creating new opportunities, widening one's field of action and identifying the best partners, a whole ecosystem will be able to come together on the platform. Thanks to a wide range of services and functionalities, this new digital universe will be a business and networking platform, as well as a space for information, content and conferences with livestreaming; a platform also designed to serve brands, permitting them to push their content such as product launches, press conferences, keynotes and seminars - live and/or interactive, commercial or PR - in their own corporate environment if they wish, with selective access.

Ultimately, for all players: several levels of access, activation and use. HourUniverse is an innovative, comprehensive, intelligent tool for connecting to the market, and will evolve along with feedback from the community. This is where the future is being shaped: the transformation of a trade fair into a digital, global space, active throughout the year..

Five days of Live Show, in a totally new atmosphere.

From 8 to 12 April 2021, in line with Geneva's watchmaking events, the concept will come into its own with the community being able to meet physically in Basel, concentrated in Hall 1. 

An urban tech atmosphere, connected, trendy, graphics, black walls, LED screens, modern industrial decoration, resolutely contemporary aesthetics and design, all of which creates a new atmosphere, while maintaining top quality, for the watch, jewellery and gems industries.

Open spaces, pop-up stores, pavilions, multiple experience zones, initiation workshops, themed exhibitions, collectors' corners and sales area, a forum with a programme of conferences and debates streamed live available to brands and exhibitors, start-ups and suppliers of new technologies, to reflect on the major challenges and demands of the industry... the show is conceived as a grand festival of networking and experiences. 

A resolutely open and participatory spirit prevails. Every day there are theme breakfasts, Happy Hours, ‘Get together’ moments, aftershow parties, not to forget an opening and a closing party designed to encourage informal exchanges and networking. 

Beforehand, to facilitate the organisation of the stays, the registrations, to allow both visitors and participants to optimally organise their agendas and business, the bridges being built will also be obvious with the digital platform that will serve as the keystone to the whole. 

Just as on the digital platform, the range of exhibitors in Basel will also go far beyond watch, Jewellery and gems brands. The ecosystem will be open to new players in the industry, whether in distribution, products, marketing or points of sale, with the presence of established companies as well as startups. Connected products and CPO (certified pre-owned) platforms will also have their place in the watch sector, as will manufacturers of e.g. synthetic stones in the gems sector. Players and services, including those related to the blockchain and the tech world in the broadest sense, are also welcome at the show. 

Finally, with this new approach, the entire on-site reception structure has been redesigned. For participants, the pricing policy has been drastically adjusted to allow them a particularly competitive Return on Investment, ‘investments à la carte’, adapted to their business, size, scope, expectations and needs. Similarly, the accommodation offered for exhibitors and visitors alike will be at guaranteed ultra-competitive prices without precedent.
 
Ultimately, the ambition is to build a global, varied and interconnected universe; to provide today's tools at the service of the entire watchmaking, jewellery and gems community, in the broadest sense of the term.