The Emperor is Butt Naked

All the talk this AM seems to be about the re/launch of Universal Genève. And let's just say, it's not all good...

Shamelessly borrowed from the worldwide infoweb

On the one hand, industry insiders (i.e. people who are never going to take out their own credit card to purchase a UG) are all patting their chum Mr. Kern on the back telling him how shrewd and clever he is.

And then we have, well, let's just say more than a few loyal fans who have been waiting for the new UG not unlike a 6 year old waiting for Christmas, who are now collectively recoiling at the price tag. For my part? In all honesty, Universal Genève never really turned my crank. It's perfectly nice, but nothing I've laid awake at night yearning for. So I don't have a dog in this particular fight.

For more than a few dollars more...

let's see what a shit ton of money will get you.

 

The Polerouter can be yours for a meare CHF 14,000 -

Courtesy of Universal Genève 

Let's put that into perspective... 

Actually, I can't. It is simply a stupid amount of money for what it actually is.

How about a chronograph?

Courtesy of Universal Genève 

A steal at CHF 15,500! 

As is the case with all things in Watch Town, we will have to wait and see. But when you take into consideration the ridiculously large sum that was paid to buy the brand out of mothballs, you might understand the desire to see at least some ROI. With that said, for those of us in the lower 48, you can do a lot with $19,622.81 (current conversion per XE as of 6:13 AM, Friday April 10). But then again, your kids don't need to go to college, you can take public transportation, and do you really need both kidneys?

Baumes Away!

Word reached the North Shore offices of Henki Time that speculation was no longer necessary. Richemont has pulled the trigger and an agreement has been reached with the Damiani Group for them to take control of Baume & Mercier, and off of the Richemont books.

Without going too much into the heroes and zeros, I'd like to really address a bigger issue that a few other outlets have hinted at, but nobody has really been willing to address - the lack of understanding of identity that many brands suffer from. And those brands in particular? They tend to reside in larger (and sometimes smaller) groups.

Now if we stick strictly with Baume & Mercier, in truth? It's a brand that with even just a little bit more attention from the Richemont leadership, and a bit more understanding about where they lived within Watch Town writ large? Well they could have made a LOT more money and not be an asset needing to be sold. But a big part of that has to do with what I constantly share with the brands I consult for - you must know who you are, you must be comfortable in your own skin, and you MUST PUNCH YOUR WEIGHT.

Let's look at some other examples. I realize all of the other pundits are talking about Zenith. But in truth that is a bit to obvious. We'll come back to it. Let's talk about my old frenimy - Mido. Mido is a brand that can't seem to decide who they are. Are they retro - with the heritage Commanders and Ocean Stars. But then again - countless numbers of SKUs. And here in the US, opening and closing US offices, and going back and forth with concepts. In truth? The majority of what Mido cranks out could really have any brand's name on it. There is very little to distinguish it. Now, in fairness, I have to assume that from their shared administration offices in Le Locle that they make enough money that for better or worse, Hayek the Younger, and Hayek the Even Younger are willing to swing along.

Staying with the Swatch group, let's consider a brand that has an identity that gives it some flexibility, but also has the ability to know itself - Longines. Longines is, if we're honest, what Baume & Mercier should have always focused on being. A step or two above Tissot, but absolutely priced in real world economics. In the real world, a $1,000 - $2,000 watch purchase is going to be a once in a lifetime purchase for most people. And if I'm being honest? That is really what attracted me to watches in the first place. It wasn't about the brand, or how many I could / would get to have. It was about a nice thing that was with you every day. Something that was truly fine, that you had always wanted.

But I digress...

Let's go back to Le Locle - and Zenith. Zenith is a brand that I admire a great deal, and a brand that seems to be cursed to poor stewardship. It has been traded somewhat like a baseball card that each person who acquires it hopes will somehow pivot and make them millionaires. The reality is not nearly so rosy. 

Zenith has had the misfortune to land in the hands of a succession of wannabe operators who it turns out were just marking time until the next warm body came along. And with the stewardship of Arnault, Arnault the Younger, and Arnault the Even Younger nothing seems likely to change the trajectory of Zenith. The piece none of us pundits really know is whether or not Zenith is profitable, breaking even, or losing money. My sense is that Zenith has become a sunk cost trap for LVMH. And as with so many people who are successful with many things, it is hard to see, acknowledge, and accept failure when it finally rears it's not-so-attractive head. And Zenith and LVMH's inability to effectively address it is Watch Town's Dunning Kruger Effect writ large.

Now unlike the Watch Bros who apparently know more than anyone else, I am not going to presume that I would know how to fix Zenith. To quote that great movie about the watch business - The Sound of Music: "How do you solve a problem like Zenith?"

So what have we learned from all this? Sadly - probably not a damned thing ; )

Watch Town has a painfully short memory. We forget that once upon a time, apart from a handful of successes, the watch business was a grind. The idea of a Rockstar Watch Maker or CEO was ludicrous. We forget that watch making in Switzerland started out as a way for farmers to make money during the winter when they couldn't farm. And I am a bit of a traditionalist, but perhaps a bit of humility coupled with fiscal responsibility wouldn't be too far misplaced?

Richemont's sale of Baume & Mercier is perhaps the wisest decision they have made for some time. Selling a brand to another suitor who will hopefully take it further than you did is not really a failure, it shows the sort of wisdom that is in short supply in Watch Town. But maybe this will be the first shift towards common sense that will hopefully start a trend which will help some of these red-headed step-child brands not only survive, but one day thrive.

But as with anything in Watch Town, we will wait, and we will see.

What I've Learned - the Year End Edition

2025 is rapidly drawing to a close and the only thing that seems clear is that short-term memory loss (at best) or willing disregard for reality (more likely) seem to be pre-requisites for long term success in Watch Town.

The people running watch town are now (by and large) not returning their prices to 
prior levels and typifying the assessment of basic human nature another great commentator on the watch business (Napoleon Bonaparte) provided in a Ted Talk back in the day - "Men are moved by two levers only: fear and self interest."

I still never cease to be amazed by the short- term memory of Watch Town's shot callers, they quickly went from squealing like a pig on Liberation day, to sticking their whole faces in the trough once they were assured that the only people really feeling the pinch would be their retail partners, customers, and the staff that some companies opted to lay off.

And, sadly enough, the same disregard for recent history is afflicting some of the very retail partners who got the fuzzy end of the lollipop not so long ago. Righteous indignation had been the order of the day back in April. For many of these guys and girls it must have felt like a betrayal. They had put their faith in a false prophet who, as it turns out, did not necessarily have their best interest at heart.  

So we will all take a short break, slowly get excited, and reconvene in about three and a half months so we can pretend like 2025 never happened.

The Reality of the Situation - A Christmas Miracle in Watch Town?

Shamelessly borrowed from the World-Wide Infoweb

As we move closer to the holiday season, a few undeniable truths are becoming more and more apparent. First and foremost? Sales in Watch Town suck. There's really no nice way to put it. Lots of exports going out, but as anyone who's been in the game a minute or two will tell you, exports do not equal sales. So as 100s of SKUs are piling up in various warehouses around the world, the problem of too much stock on hand is going hand in hand with supply chain issues. It's an interesting situation that started with the first domino falling - over production. Ironically, this is not a new thing. It seems that the CEOs of Watch Town still prefer their own bath water to to pretty much any other beverage.

Once it became clear that the supply was far exceeding the already weak demand, the same folks who couldn't have their teams build enough soon-to-be grey market watches then slashed or completely canceled their supply orders. Which, in turn, led the suppliers to make many of their workers redundant. This, in turn, put the squeeze on smaller brands that were living in Reality (a more modest, yet stable municipality that is Watch Town adjacent). This, in turn, meant that although they were selling, they could not fulfill the orders that they were receiving. 

And so here we are - counting down for the holidays, and the Grinch is firmly ensconced under the Christmas Tree.

But maybe, just maybe there's a Festivus Miracle waiting!

Just kidding, that's about as likely as an Arnault offspring being replaced by someone who actually has experience...

Happy Holidays!

Reality Check In - Who Really Pays The Tariff?

Campaign Promise Irony!

And no, that's not a special edition from Swatch to goose sales this November ; )

As the dust settles, and geopolitical uncertainty seems likely to be a "state of being" for the next four years, I thought it might be interesting to consider what the impacts might be if the promise of tariffs is realized and how it will impact things like, I don't know, the cost of watches?

Now curious to relate, watch town North America is populated by a lot of fans of the returning President-Elect. 

And fair enough, it is a free country. 

But what is even more curious is that many folks in the lower 48 cited inflation as their motivation for voting as they did, and that it was downright un-American to pay an additional .10 for a dozen eggs. 

And, fair enough, it is a free country.

The incoming President-elect has promised 60% tariffs on items coming into the US from China, and 10% from everywhere else. His rationale being that this won't hurt Americans as it is the Chinese (and other governments) who pay the tariffs. Now in fairness, I am not a trained economist, and I did't graduate from Penn's Wharton School. But as I have spent a fair amount of time working in Watch Town and Watch Town adjacent areas, I feel fairly confident in imparting the following reality - tariffs are not paid by the exporting countries. In fact, they are not paid by countries at all. How can I be so sure? Well, I have this odd habit of reading and researching rather than parroting what I hear on social media. Not to mention I have worked for companies that sell (and ship) to US customers from Switzerland, Japan, and Germany, and suffice it to say that those countries are not paying the import duties and taxes. You, Red, White, and Blue customer are. A few companies will lower their prices and eat the expense, but that is not a universal practice. 

So, as a public service, I thought I'd share some of my learnings with you. An interesing piece  on import tariffs that even I, a graduate from a large land-grant university can understand. You can read it in its entirety here -

https://taxfoundation.org/blog/who-really-pays-tariffs/

Authored by Alex Durante, Alex Muresianu for taxfoundation.org:

"When the Trump administration imposed tariffs on various imports in 2018, the stated purpose was to boost US industries and punish foreign exporters. But rather than hurting foreign exporters, the economic evidence shows it is American firms and consumers hardest hit by the Trump tariffs. The tariffs resulted in higher prices for a wide variety of goods that US consumers and businesses purchase. The Biden administration has continued and even increased many of the Trump tariffs—drawing some attention as inflation rises. And while tariffs do raise prices for American consumers, their impact on economy-wide inflation is relatively small.

When the US imposes tariffs on imports, US businesses directly pay import taxes to the US government on their purchases from abroad. The economic burden of the tariffs, however, could fall on others besides the US business directly paying the tax, including foreign businesses selling goods to US businesses (if foreigners lower their prices to absorb some of the tariffs), or US consumers ultimately purchasing the goods (if US businesses raise their prices to pass on the tariffs).

Historically, economists have generally found that foreign firms have absorbed some of the burden of tariffs by lowering their prices, meaning domestic firms and consumers haven’t borne the entirety of higher tariffs in the past. In contrast to past studies, however, new studies have found the Trump-Biden tariffs have been passed almost entirely through to US firms or final consumers.

Economists Pablo Fajgelbaum, Pinelopi Goldberg, Patrick Kennedy, and Amit Khandelwal examined the tariffs on washing machines, solar panels, aluminum, steel, and goods from the European Union and China imposed in 2018 and 2019. They found that US firms and final consumers bore the entire burden of tariffs and estimated a net loss to the US economy of $16 billion annually, including more than $114 billion in losses to firms and consumers, offset by small gains to protected producers and revenue gains to the government."

Now, funnily enough, the guys (almost exclusively men) working in Watch Town US are very excited about the new administration coming in.

And, fair enough, it is a free country.

But I do have to wonder how enthusiastic they will be when their sales numbers start to stall out. Now it is curious to relate, that several of these guys (again, almost exclusively men) are absolutely convinced that nobody will balk at paying an EXTRA 10% for their watches, pens, and other non-essential luxury goods. I heard many of these fellows crowing post election day as to their certainty of this point.

And, fair enough, it is a free country.

But, and here's the rub - if we had a record number of people cite the economy and the price of eggs, milk, and gas as a reason to vote the way that they did, do you really think that they won't feel it when the extra 10% gets larded into the price of their watches, pens, and other nonessential luxury goods? Moreover, when Swiss brands are noted not for their sudden discounting, but rather, very predictable price increases, do you really think that they are going to adjust things just to suit the the US?

And, fair enough, it is a free country.

And one last thing - if you labor under any illusions as to China's involvement in the Swiss watch industry, I need only direct you to, well, Switzerland. Ultimately, in politics, love, and family? We tend to believe what we want to believe. We tend not to let realities get in the way of our hopes, dreams, and political promises.

And, fair enough, it is a free country.

What I've Learned - It's Deja-Vu All Over Again!

As we get towards the end of the year, I thought I would re-heat some leftovers from a few years ago. It is safe to say that we are well on the other side of the pandemic (at least the most recent one), and despite inflation, other economic indicators are stabilizing. Here in the lower 48 we do have a small, local election about to take place which you might have heard about, but beyond that everything is peace and prosperity!

So on the real side, I  share with you once again something I first put out four years ago. It seems as accurate now as it was then -

The Tiger Who Came to Tea, or What Judith Kerr Could Teach Watch Town

Now in fairness, I had never heard of Judith Kerr or her famous children's book The Tiger Who Came to Tea - 

Courtesy of Judith Kerr/The Tiger Who Came to Tea

Long story short, a very friendly, talking tiger knocks on the door at tea time, asks if he can join the little girl (Sophie) and her mom for tea, and proceeds to eat everything in the house that isn't nailed down. Because, you know, he's a tiger. Very polite, but also very hungry. He finishes eating and drinking everything in the house, and then leaves. Mom is a wee bit concerned because dad is coming home soon and there's nothing to eat.  Not to worry, dad takes everyone out to a cafe for dinner, and the next day mom and Sophie go shopping and re-stock the kitchen.  And just in case?  They buy an extra large can of tiger food just in case the tiger returns for tea, which he never does.

I was actually introduced to this story through Monocle Magazine.  And if you have not already, and you can afford it, get a subscription.  In the most recent issue - no 134, June 2020, Alain de Botton the founder of The School of Life - 
https://www.theschooloflife.com/london/, penned "Taming The Beast".  In it, he speaks to the fears and anxiety that plague us all from the cradle to the grave, using the classic children's tale to illustrate that in many cases, if we can understand our fears, we can better manage them.  A great article and I highly recommend it.

Now me (being me) read the same story about Sophie and the tea-time tiger, and had a slightly different take-away. Because I actually saw things this way -

It would be easy to view the tiger as "catastrophe", and therefore we could equate it with the Hong Kong protests, COVID-19, or civil unrest in the US.  In other words, randomness that when unleashed damages otherwise well functioning organizations. Well, in some instances yes, but in many?  Not so much.  

In my estimation, the tiger represents shitty management.  The tiger epitomizes all of the poor decision making that gets made, which then has a knock-on effect. Sophie and her mom represent the failure of organizations to recognize it and reign it in, or cut it out. On the one hand you can say that at least the tiger didn't eat them, but that was never really the threat.  It was really more a case of upsetting someone (or in this case, a tiger) and asking them to leave.  You know, like saying no to a costly America's Cup promotion, choosing not to make more watches than you can sell, opt not to engage directly with the grey market... well, you get the idea. 

It has been said that adversity will often separate the champs from the chumps, it will reveal true talent and ability, and lay bare deficiencies.  But Watch Town, let's be honest with each other for once, we've been heading towards this reality for the last 2 - 3 years. The Hong Kong protests, COVID-19 and civil unrest in the US only served to accelerate the process.

So rather than going out to buy more tiger food, maybe it might be a moment to look to the brands that have continued to move forward these past few years. Almost all of them have a strong digital presence, communicate with their customers and customers-to-be regularly, and have found ways to adapt in the time of pandemic.  They have direct sales channels, and they are nimble enough to adapt quickly.  

And the other thing that most of these lottery winners know? Things are not ever going to go back exactly to the way they were.  They do not rhapsodize about how things used to be and what they think they will be in the future when things return to "normal".  Normal is in the rear view mirror.  They understand that the future is now. They don't have time for hyperbole. 

So I'll leave it with a quote from that other great commentator on watches, Nino Brown as portrayed by Wesley Snipes in the movie New Jack City -

“Money talks and bullshit runs a marathon.”

As We Head Into Winter...

Let's be honest with ourselves, the portents aren't good out there. Pre-owned prices continue to drop, and suppliers are practically begging brands for orders of pretty much any kind. The vultures are starting to circle more than a few brands, and it will a game of survival for even some of the big dogs.

If I've read the stock reports correctly, Mighty Swatch Group shares spent most of last year hovering between 12 and 13. Let's just say things have changed, as they appear to have closed at 9.11 yesterday.

So let's see what happens as we head towards the holidays. Christmas may indeed be coming, but the goose might need to tighten its belt a bit.

Short-Time Work in Watch Town

As things start to get "realer" in Watch Town, the collective belts are needing to be tightened. On the upside? Unlike years past where brands made hundreds of watchmakers redundant but still kept their pet PR projects like yacht sponsorships and million CHF media excursions untouched, this time around the majority of suppliers and brands are taking advantage of short-time work. Essentially, the state in the guise of the Office for Economy and Employment will cover up to 80% of the cost (i.e. lost earnings), with the employer responsible for the remaining 20%. 

The usual suspects are being blamed - poorly performing markets in China and Hong Kong. But as someone with their ear to the ground here in the lower 48, allow me to inform the guys and gals in Watch Town that, in fact, it is a slowdown being felt pretty much everywhere. Here in the US there is anxious anticipation as to what the election in November will bring. Despite high inflation, overall the economy is strong with very low levels of unemployment. That is a reality. But just as people who lived through the Great Depression remain frugal even in good times, many would-be watch buyers remain cautious having made it through the worst of the pandemic, Hodinkee had to learn that lesson the hard way. 

I am guessing that purchase of Universal Genève is probably not looking so great right now. The argument could be made that it wasn't Breitling so much as their deep-pocketed investors, but keep in mind it is those same deep-pocketed investors Breitling will need to man the pumps should they start to take on water.

The downturn, more honestly, is down to a growing fear of the unknown... that is what is shaping the not-so-sexy sales figures here in the US, and I suspect elsewhere. What remains to be seen is how long Watch Town will be stuck in this funk. Because the other side of this reality is that although the goose may not be getting fat, Christmas is still coming. This means between now and Halloween, brand managers and sales reps will be wearing out shoe leather to try and get those holiday season orders in. And here's the rub - if all of the components, etc., are delayed because of short-time work...

Well, let's just say it might be a blue, blue Christmas. But you never know, there might be a Festivus Miracle in store for Watch Town. 

Summer Repeat - Yogi Berra on Brand Management

Repeat - Yogi Berra on Brand Management

I originally came out with this just over three years ago.  At that time I was in Malmo, Sweden for the launch of Kronaby.  After a fairly successful launch, followed by a strong BaselWorld 17, and  a BaselWorld 18 that was off the chain (the booth was jam-packed and I saw someone in front of the booth with with a can of grease and a crowbar trying to get more people in), shortly prior to BaselWorld 2019, word leaked out that Kronaby was, in fact, toast.  Now it's funny looking back, because at the time I was somehow thinking that maybe the folks at Kronaby (and let's say that's the four shot-callers and a few key employees that, in hindsight, never should have been anywhere near a watch brand), might be approaching things differently.  Shortly after launch, it began to become clear that, in fact, that was not the case.  Just prior to their first full-on BaselWorld (I'm talking about a week prior) the brain trust in the marketing department thought it made sense to cancel a large chunk of media appointments that had already been booked.  The result, a lot of press took that particular fuck-you at face value and not only didn't bother to re-schedule, but wrote Kronaby out of their collective consciousness.  Ironically, that BaselWorld found all four of the shot-callers hanging out in front of their booth, not unlike used car salesmen prowling the lot, looking for a possible mark.  Curious to relate, the next year was quite good, with people literally spilling out of the booth!  So what happened?  Well, a few things and some that parallel another fairly spectacular fall from grace, Klokers.  And if and when I am asked to deliver a Ted Talk I will endeavor to boil it down to ten minutes or so ; )

But for now, it seems like a good time to re-heat this one!

Yogi Berra on Brand Management

A late night (in Malmo) Face Time call came in waking me from a peaceful slumber.  Clearly I need to figure out some sort of "out of office" message for that when I am out of the country ; )

Worrying that it could be Wendy and there might be something important, I picked up.  At first, relief as it was not Wendy but a fairly senior fellow who works for a company in Switzerland that produces, markets and sells watches.  We had not spoken in 11 months and he was unaware that I had moved to Salem, MA and was no longer in California (and clearly he did not know I was in Sweden).  This turned into the semi-annual call where X (no names, so don't ask!) was on his latest talent hunt.  It generally starts out with some pleasantries:

X:  "How's Mary?"
Me: "Who is Mary?"
X:  "Your wife!"
Me:  "Well, that's news to me as I've been calling her Wendy since 1992."

So let's just say that X's memory is not razor-sharp, and therefore it is safe to say, he's not so good on every detail ; )

X:  "We're looking for a brand manager for  (no names).  Any suggestions?"
Me:  "What happened to (no names)?  You were so sure they were perfect."
X:  "Well, it turns out that (no names) was not a good manager."

And then X split open like an over-stuffed piñata.  And out it flowed.  X shared all of the problems and I listened.  And to quote that other great commentator on the luxury industry, Yogi Berra:

It's like deja-vu, all over again.
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/y/yogi_berra.html

"It's like de-javu, all over again."

You see, X and I have a very similar conversation approximately every 18 months.  It is not always exactly the same date, but generally tends to fall between the close of the year and JCK.
And every 18 months I tend to ask the same thing:
"Why do you keep hiring the same type of person and expect different results?"
Long time readers will know that Moneyball is my default reference, and I even gave a copy to X as a gift a year or so back.  I don't think he ever read it and it's pages were probably used to start a fire in his swanky ski chalet.  So I thought I would dumb it down in the hopes that he might get it this time.  So without further delay, here's some hiring advice from Yogi Berra himself -

"We made too many wrong mistakes"
As an English teacher, I realize that this sentence makes no sense.  But look a little deeper and you will find a kernel of wisdom.  Essentially it reminds me of the anxiety and fear of looking foolish that compels recruiters, hiring managers and even CEOs to go with the same type of candidate again and again.  Simply put, the belief when hiring a brand manager in North America (I honestly can't speak to the other countries) is that they (usually he) must be a sales person.  Now, in and of itself this is good because, you know, you need to sell watches.  But there are several other elements that oftentimes get overlooked:
Management/coaching/mentoring.  Sales is, by its very nature, a fairly solitary pursuit.  While sales people get managed, it is very seldom that they have been called upon to manage the diverse group of personalities that typically make up a brand's office.
PR/Marketing/Media.  Again, frequently a lack of understanding of ROI vs. money actually spent.  If brand managers had a better understanding of this, then certain magazines and "influencers" would probably stop attending BaselWorld as the gravy train would clearly be shut down.  In addition, certain brands would not be the watch world equivalent of "Christmas/Easters" (i.e. people who only go to church two days a year).  Some of us call them Basel/Vegas.  You will only hear from these folks just prior to these two events.
Customer Service. Again, dealing with angry customers is an alien experience for a lot of these folks.

There are some people who, if they don't already know, you can't tell 'em.
Simply put, X, and plenty of other shot-callers in the industry just can't bring themselves to believe that there might be a different way to approach things.  As a friend of mine who works behind the scenes as a very in-demand consultant in Switzerland put it -
"these guys at Richemont, Swatch, and a lot of the others?  They're like trains running on the tracks.  They only move one way, and that's because the 'station master' (i.e. senior management) is following the same schedule they always have.  Which works great in normal times, but quite differently in a heavy snow storm".  And that snow storm started a few years ago and is still screwing up traffic ; )  Perhaps it is time to invest in an alternative "vehicle"?
Now X will probably go out and hire another big group loyalist who is expecting a base salary of 6 figures, business class travel, and a very deep marketing budget.

X:  "But they worked for Cartier for 20 years!"
Me: "So they are still with Cartier?"
X:  "No, but they were there from 92 - 2012."
Me: "So, essentially you are telling me that they have not worked for 4 - 5 years?"

At the risk of sounding mean, there is usually a reason why these people are available.

Nobody goes there anymore.  It's too crowded.
At the risk of sounding crass, X has a boner for big name, fancy retail partners.  The logic being that If you are in "so and so's" store in Las Vegas, LA or New York you will have made it big.  Sounds good, but the realities are something very, very different.  Those stores will most likely be MEMO. (Our old friend of the watch retailer meaning the brand provides the watches and waits for them to sell, and then maybe the retail partner will pay for them.  Then again, maybe not.)  So essentially the brand is acting as the bank, as well as the "supplier".  And if you think that is the only expense, consider the travel to visit the retail partner to do the safe count, the money that will be demanded for co-op advertising, the POS collateral materials that the retailer needs.  In other words, a shit-ton of money that the brand will be putting out there without any confirmed sale in sight.  And once the brand is in the store, they are fighting for case space, because frankly there are just too many brands.

So my strong advice for X after a few hours of sleep is this -
If you come to a fork in the road, take it. 
This is a perfect opportunity to consider a different approach.  There are plenty of talented people (some of them are even female) who despite not being solo artist salesmen might have exactly the talents and more importantly, the temperament to steer the Good Ship Watch Brand through the stormy seas of North America.

Or, you can go ahead do the same thing again, hoping for a different outcome -
Even Napoleon had his Watergate.

Summer Leftovers - The Trolley Problem

 A Summer Repeat - The Trolley Problem

This originally ran (I think) in 2019 or so in the "Blog Formerly known as Tempus Fugit. With the recent reality check over at the Good Ship Hodinkee, the not-so-sunny news about Bremont's apparent lack of success with their succession plans -  https://www.watchpro.com/bremonts-british-manufacturing-mission-increases-losses-to-14-million/ 

And Watch Town begrudgingly dragging their collective backsides to work following the Summer Watch Maker's Holiday, it seemed like a good time to reheat this one. 

So once again, The Trolley Problem - 

So I had an interesting phone call with a brand owner this morning.  He first thanked me (I think sincerely) for the recent post about the pervasiveness of payola in the watch media.  He then asked (I also think sincerely) "Do you enjoy making enemies?"

Well, I don't expect my phone to ring with a job offer from one of the big-dog watch media outlets anytime soon, so in for a penny - in for a pound.  Here gentle reader, is a repeat on one of my favorites -

The Trolley Problem

The Trolley Problem - As it applies to watch journalism.

Courtesy of Wikipedia

It would seem that the words watch and journalist are becoming more and more incompatible in the same sentence.  Brands work feverishly to sanitize who will receive their release and then monitor closely to watch the "Barium Meal" that is the press release that they sent out to see which "news" outlets will clap and bark like seals, and which ones will experience gastro-intestinal distress. For the watch journos out there who are members of the "clean plate" club and can swallow it all down and reveal the picture of Mickey Mouse etched across the top of their dish? They get a gold star, guaranteed access, paid travel and gifts of various description and best of all?  Advertising revenue!  For those that spend the time after disseminating a particularly foul smelling press missive with a visit from "Cardinal Chunder"?  

Courtesy of the BBC

Well, let's just say they will not find themselves on this year's Christmas list.

But let's get back to the topic at hand - the Trolley Problem.  The trolley problem is (at this point) an age old conundrum conceived to help inform and instruct on moral and/or ethical behavior.  If Wikipedia is anything to go by, it might have first been utilized by Frank Chapman Sharp at the University of Wisconsin to help instruct on moral or ethical thought.  Essentially, imagine that there is a runaway trolley (or streetcar, or tram if you are more familiar, or even a train).  Further down the line there are five people, very much alive, but immobilized and unable to move, and are directly in the path of the trolley, streetcar, tram, or what the hell, even a train... well you get the idea. BUT WAIT! Hallelujah! There is a switch lever, and you are standing right by it! Hooray! You can save the day!  

But wait -

If you choose to divert the trolley, tram, street car, train (you get the idea) to this other line, it will then head down the track and run right over your infant son who you left in his stroller on what you believed to be a disused stretch of track while you went to grab a six pack at the off-license.  Yes, this is why your partner does not trust you alone with the kids ; )

So now you have a real dilemma - do you act, and by acting sacrifice your son for the greater good of the 5 strangers?  Or do you do nothing?  I mean, it's not like you put those five people there on the tracks in the first place, you just wanted to get some cold ones.

In the "normal" world, and I use the word normal cautiously because we are living in very abnormal times, but in the normal world, if you report on fact, or offer opinion (not slander, defamation, or falsehoods) but fair and balanced opinion, you should not be afraid to do so.  But we are not living in normal times.  And curious to relate?  The watch and luxury business has been trying to run a somewhat authoritarian press bureau for some time.  Step out of line, you are left in the cold.  And in all fairness, there are a fair number of people out there trying to make a living, and not necessarily willing to throw that switch lever and watch their child (or in this case, their media outlet) get mowed down.

Recently with the triumph in court of Vortic, there was a real opportunity for several owners of large press outlets to do the right thing and actually speak up. These are outlets with deep staffs, and a fairly secure revenue stream (at least by comparison to others), with truly large readerships. They all chose to remain silent publicly.  And this is a shame. Because in trying to stay on the "good list", they collectively took a shit on a very deserving, very sincere brand that has struggled nobly forward for many years, and frankly? Deserved a hell of a lot better than what they got. And what I find so frustrating in all of this is that I KNOW these media outlet owners. They were once in the very same spot as the brand owner. They were not always so "mighty", and I have shared more than one dreadful lunch at BaselWorld with several of them over plates of over-aged open faced liverwurst sandwiches and tap water trying to conceive of an alliance of our then much smaller blogs and outlets to come together so that we all might make some money.  
Editors note - the alliance never really fully materialized.  2 of the outlets became big time, one of the bloggers now runs a magazine, I chose to remain a solo act.

And on one level I get it - we all have to eat, we all have bills to pay, and fortunately for me, I am not dependent upon Tempus Fugit, and therefore not dependent on brands writing me checks.

But on the other hand, whether we all admit it or not, nobody needs watches. 

More particularly?

Nobody really needs watch magazines or blogs. We like them, we enjoy them. But the outlets should also all be willing to offer honest opinions without fear of losing advertising revenue.

Because ultimately? The watch press should be much more than simply an extension of a brand's pr and marketing office. Because when the line is as blurred as it currently is? It is no longer actual reporting. It is just candy floss.

The Transfer Window is WIDE OPEN

At Richemont -

Now, it is safe to say that this is not exactly "stop the press" news at this point as it dropped over a week ago. But I found it curious with the flurry of comings and goings of all of the changes happening with both independents and the shuffling at Richemont. Two of the independent changes are not huge news because, at the risk of sounding uncharitable, who is running Scwharz Etienne or Favre Leuba is not really going to be as seismic industry wide as who the shot callers are at Cartier and Jaeger-LeCoultre. And despite the crowing of a certain subscription based newsletter author, the word around the campfire in Watch Town was that the eminent departure (whether by separation or reassignment) of the CEO of Jaeger-LeCoultre has been in the offing for quite some time. 

In fairness to Richemont, they tend to shuffle the deck pretty regularly, and unlike a certain French based luxury group that rhymes with LVMH, leadership decisions are not based on the participation trophy awarded in the familial Olympics that ensure the Arnault offspring will be occupying the C-Suite regardless of experience or ability. 

So, we will wish all of the participants bon chance in this latest game of Richemont Musical Chairs! Who will fill in the rest of the slots? We will wait, and we will see. Just listen carefully to the pace of the tune, you don't want to be caught out when it suddenly stops.

It's About To Get Really, Really, Really...Bad

"Disease and deprivation stalk our land like... two giant stalking things."

Rowan Atkinson as The Black Adder

Needless to say, the shit's about to get real - yet again.

While my more well heeled erstwhile colleagues in Watch Town's Fourth and Fifth Estates are sipping fancy cocktails in Geneva and figuring out how to pack the more desirable of the branded swag into their suitcases, yours truly has been reviewing the "Butcher's Bill". Long story short? If the word around the campfire is accurate, summer camps for Swiss kids are going to see a sharp decline in enrollment as moms and dads who work in Watch Town are about to have a fair amount of unexpected free time on their hands.

Cats and Kittens, to quote that other great commentator on the Watch Business, one Huggy Bear -

"On the road of life, one has to pay tolls"

And it would seem that the boys and girls calling the shots in Watch Town continue to have that one fatal flaw - they keep forgetting the not so distant past. And I can only assume that is why they so blindly repeat it.

Buckle up, Buttercup, it's about to get bumpy.

When The Glass Is Not Even Half-Full, But Broken

It's time for the semi-annual cut the shit episode here at Henki Time. Having spent the better part of the last week in the real capital of Swiss watch making (that would be Biel/Bienne, Le Locle, La Chaux-de-Fonds and the surrounding areas), let's just say that the hot air being pumped out of Geneva, Zurich and other "fancier" places is just that.

There are many tell-tale signs, but the most obvious are the rumors (now growing louder and more frequent) about layoffs in the Jura and surrounding area. This will, of course, have zero impact on the shot-callers and big dogs, but most likely the watch makers and roll players who did as instructed. While the big dogs drop off their suits for a quick cleaning before the Kabuki theatre that is Watches and Wondering  the realities of poor decision making and poorer oversight continue to haunt the industry as a whole. But not to worry, the press releases will certainly only reflect triumph!

But what Gregory Pons of Business Montres refers to as "Musical Chairs" is no game to take lightly. There are a lot of people depending on each other to make everything work out. More than a few suppliers are delivering even later than usual. This then impacts supply deliveries, watch assemblies and ultimately sales. But it is highly unlikely that any big bosses are going anywhere. No, where the real pain is being felt is most likely going to be the actual people who make the actual watches that you might, gentle reader, actually buy ; ) 

Think I'm full of it? Well, let's examine what was once referred to as "trickle-down" economics. The idea was that the bounty enjoyed at the top will overflow and trickle down. Let's start with the carrion crows of Watch Town - the Fourth and Fifth Estates. For many of my brothers and sisters out their hustling for whatever might not be gobbled up by the bigger outlets, times are looking pretty tough. And even the mighty are feeling the pinch of uncertainty. After just a month or so on the masthead of a certain media outlet, the Chief Operating Officer who appeared in January is no longer there. As is often the case at this certain media outlet, it is impossible to really know the comings and goings as they are rarely clearly articulated. But it is clear that the Masthead has shrunk considerably in the recent years, as has the amount of coverage.

Now it is also interesting to consider that press invites for the show formerly known as the SIHH (Watches and Wonders) are still handed out to exactly the same cast of characters from the same outlets with - you guessed it, the same impact. Now I know that this is going to sound crazy, but isn't the idea of marketing to spread the word about your product BEYOND its already existing customer / enthusiast base?

But that certain media outelt and the other big dogs need not worry, the same contortions will still be performed by the same brands to ensure that media outlets that cover them once or twice a year will have multiple invitations (which in turn ensures that other outlets will be excluded). Say what you want about BaselWorld, it was a democratic meritocracy. Anyone who was willing to get themselves there would be able to get appointments with brands. But as someone who has been referred to as notable, but not welcome at SIHH / Watches And Wonders, I continue to be astonished by the merry-go-round that is media relations in Watch Town.

And in truth, the approach to media relations is no different than Watch Town's approach to most everything else. 

So what? What's the point? In fairness, I am not saying anything here that I haven't been saying for years. And maybe that is exactly the point! I think that probably, deep down? Watch Town's residents don't really want anything to change. 

Despite impassioned mini speeches no doubt fueled by multiple servings of ardent social lubricants, the same mistakes will continue to be made, because ultimately? Change is probably a bit too scary.

I took a moment this past Thursday to reflect on the nearly 14 years I've spent covering the comings and goings of Watch Town at Caffe Specttacolo in front of the Biel/Bienne station waiting for my train back to Zurich airport. And I must say that I thought about it all and laughed a bit, raising more than one eyebrow from my fellow cafe guests.  Because it occurred to me, that despite its flaws and frustrations, I do love this world that is Watch Town ; )

Family Business

The word came down from LVMH HQ that Frédéric Arnault was now in charge of all things watches within the group. And with all due respect to Hodinkee (and if the comment section is anything to go by, I am not alone in my feelings), Mr. Anault's mercurial rise within the ranks of LVMH's watch division seems unlikely to happen anywhere else in Watch Town. The tone of the coverage from the 'dink was bordering on sycophantic. And not for nothing, it is understood that LVMH has invested in Hodinkee.

Family Business

It is not lost on anyone in the watch business that many of the most successful brands are businesses that have been started and run by individual families. Over time, several family owned brands made the decision to bring in outside talent to manage their brands. The recent departure of Mr. B at Audemars Piguet is a good example of this. AP could have engaged in the DNA Olympics, but opted for competent management that didn't happen to fall off the same family tree. 

It can also be said that there are family owned (and controlled) brands that have (by and large) remained in the family and gone from strength to strength - the name Stern still rings out loud and clear in Watch Town. But it is also important to understand that Thierry Stern grew up in the business, and spent years (not months) learning it. 

The Boss's Kid

I am no stranger to enjoying the largesse of perceived (and possibly real) nepotism. My father was a country club manager and as a teenager a job was arranged for me in the locker room of the Elyria Country Club where I spent my weekends and summers polishing members shoes and cleaning their golf clubs. I wasn't paid any more or less than my colleagues, but my hours were wildly elastic and absolutely to the benefit of my ability to go play in soccer games that my faither was coaching. I was not quite made the CEO of a watch brand, but I suspect the impact of nepotism (both perceived and real) has on the people you work with is a pretty universal and cross cultural one. You will always be judged with more than a soupçon of doubt.

Now it is safe to say that Mr. Arnault did not grow up in the watch business. And that is not necessarily a disqualifying factor. Several leaders in Watch Town came through different channels. But invariably, these folks had other experience in other industries. Mr. Arnault's CV prior to joining Tag Heuer was a little thin. His age at that time was in question by many. For me, in hindsight, I would not point a finger at age, but rather a lack of experience. We fast forward now some several years later, and Mr. Arnault certainly has some experience under his belt (both business and life). But to say that he single handedly made Tag Heuer a success is myopic (sorry Hodinkee). A lot of time and effort from a LOT of people before Mr. Arnault arrived paved the way for the path that Tag was and continues to be on. But as I have learned over more than 20 years in Watch Town, it is more often than not the family heir that receives the laurels as the last person standing.

Reality Check 

Regardless of what watch fans, the business world, or we members of the Fourth and Fifth Estate think and claim to be expert on, there is one simple, plain reality - LVMH is an extremely large, and by all accounts extremely successful juggernaut in the luxury business world. And with all due respect to all sides, it is a business that is essentially owned by the Arnault family. And to put it even more bluntly - Hublot, Tag Heuer, and Zenith were not exactly robust brands on their own. They needed (and still need) the group to support them, there is really no denying it. 

And One Last Bowl of Truth Soup

It is easy to be earnest and nostalgic about brands. It is even easier to shout that "I could do it better!" Watch fans are not entirely unlike fans of professional sports teams - we are a somewhat obsessive, overly opinionated lot that are convinced that if we were given the keys to the castle and a seat behind the big mahogany desk we would somehow know better and be hugely successful. And that just isn't true.

I think Mr. Arnault deserves the opportunity to prove himself now that he has landed in the hot seat. But to the historical revisionists out there, let's not forget that Tag's success is currently more down to the efforts put in prior. It doesn't mean Tag won't continue to prosper, but let's be real about assigning credit when we're handing out the roses ; )

What I've Learned - the "We're nearly out of COVID19" Edition

With Watches and Wonders come and gone, and with most of us still watching for and wondering about something actually coming out of what in hindsight seems to be the watch show equivalent of the trophy every millennial kid in America got just for showing up to soccer practice, I thought it might be a moment to, in the words of the Poet Laureate of Dallas/Miami -

"Stop, collaborate and listen!".

Well, we all stopped, those of us in the Fourth and Fifth Estate were ready to listen.  But in the end?  There was precious little collaboration between the brands, their communications teams, the fair and the press corp as a whole. Or as they have been known to say in Watch Town - 

"If it wasn't reported on in Hodinkee, it didn't really happen".

I kid, sort of...

So while I am not really convinced that Watch Town on the whole has learned a damn thing coming out of COVID19 and Watches and Wonder 2021, I came away with some new nuggets of personal awareness, and reaffirmation of some previously held views:

1.  Magic Beans - Unless you're planning on growing a mutant plant, committing daylight robbery, and then "giantacide" during your getaway, magic beans are best left in children's stories.  Or put another way, apart from Rolex, Patek, Tudor and maybe a teensie bit from the Richemont pack, for everyone else who participated in Watches and Wonders, the payoff was Jack-Shit, and Jack left town.  Watches and Wonders promised a lot, delivered on not too much at all - but just as someone is always willing to sell you a nickel for a dime, there will be someone to buy your "magic beans".

2.  Press releases work better when they are actually, I don't know, released.  Curious to relate, registration as a member of the press for Watches and Wonders triggered almost ZERO communication from the brands themselves, and only a daily email from the Watches and Wonders "communications team" informing me about what an amazing job they were doing, and how totally awesome Watches and Wonders was. In the end I simply camped out at brands various social media outlets and got the news there.

3.  Certain media outlets, not unlike prostitutes tend not to provide "service" without "payment". Unfortunately several brand pr and communication managers spent all of their allowance last year, and with the cost of Watches and Wonders didn't have sufficient monies to grease the wheels that connect "honest, unbiased reporting" with business.  

4. Friendship in Watch Town, as in pretty much every other business (if we are being honest with ourselves) is about as certain as the next paycheck.

5.  "My friend" still means "you f'ng asshole." 

Henki is EVERYWHERE!

Okay, I have already received, surprisingly, A LOT of concerned messages asking why I was closing down Tempus Fugit, and I want to quickly point out that Tempus Fugit is still very much alive and well.

As mentioned, the only real thing that has changed is that I will no longer be doing reviews.  I will still write about watches, the industry, etc.  I will simply no longer do reviews (a week on the wrist, etc.) as I do not feel that they are anything more than marketing activities (both for the brand, and the reviewer).

Courtesy of Amazon

One of my favorite all-time books is Carter Beats The Devil. In one instance, Charles Carter (a once famous magician) is plotting his comeback, but wants it to be a surprise. So rather than a traditional poster announcing the show, he has a poster created that says at the top:

"Carter the Great"

In the main part of the poster an image of Charles Carter in stage costume, and then at the very bottom:

"EVERYWHERE!"

Again, I truly appreciate the kind messages, and sorry Watch Town - I'm not done yet ; )

             Henki

                            EVERYWHERE!