Short-Time Work in Watch Town

As things start to get "realer" in Watch Town, the collective belts are needing to be tightened. On the upside? Unlike years past where brands made hundreds of watchmakers redundant but still kept their pet PR projects like yacht sponsorships and million CHF media excursions untouched, this time around the majority of suppliers and brands are taking advantage of short-time work. Essentially, the state in the guise of the Office for Economy and Employment will cover up to 80% of the cost (i.e. lost earnings), with the employer responsible for the remaining 20%. 

The usual suspects are being blamed - poorly performing markets in China and Hong Kong. But as someone with their ear to the ground here in the lower 48, allow me to inform the guys and gals in Watch Town that, in fact, it is a slowdown being felt pretty much everywhere. Here in the US there is anxious anticipation as to what the election in November will bring. Despite high inflation, overall the economy is strong with very low levels of unemployment. That is a reality. But just as people who lived through the Great Depression remain frugal even in good times, many would-be watch buyers remain cautious having made it through the worst of the pandemic, Hodinkee had to learn that lesson the hard way. 

I am guessing that purchase of Universal Genève is probably not looking so great right now. The argument could be made that it wasn't Breitling so much as their deep-pocketed investors, but keep in mind it is those same deep-pocketed investors Breitling will need to man the pumps should they start to take on water.

The downturn, more honestly, is down to a growing fear of the unknown... that is what is shaping the not-so-sexy sales figures here in the US, and I suspect elsewhere. What remains to be seen is how long Watch Town will be stuck in this funk. Because the other side of this reality is that although the goose may not be getting fat, Christmas is still coming. This means between now and Halloween, brand managers and sales reps will be wearing out shoe leather to try and get those holiday season orders in. And here's the rub - if all of the components, etc., are delayed because of short-time work...

Well, let's just say it might be a blue, blue Christmas. But you never know, there might be a Festivus Miracle in store for Watch Town.