Fall Repeat - The Dunning - Kruger Effect

Like any crisis, COVID-19 has laid bare a lot of realities that were probably always there, but that could continue on until external events made it impossible for them to remain unacknowledged.

For those of you unfamiliar, the Dunning-Kruger effect, its name is derived from a study conducted by David Dunning and Justin Kruger back just before the turn of the century (1999). The study exposed a very interesting paradox - in several instances average performing people tended to place themselves in the upper echelons in terms of performance. Curious to relate? In many instances, high performing people tended to down-play their abilities, ranking themselves lower on the scale than their abilities justified.

For those of you who are more visual (and enjoy video over text) here is a fun look at the Dunning-Kruger effect courtesy of Trace Dominguez and After Skool -

Cognitive Bias exists everywhere, and we all struggle with it on many levels.  The recent devolution of BaselWorld into a full-blown 3-ring circus is a great example.  And I want to jump right out of the gate and make clear that BaselWorld is only one of the Ringleaders of this train wreck.  

In Tent Number 1:

Remember the bold words of one mayor of Watch Town who insisted that his brand was special, and didn't actually need a show?  And then like a carpet bagger tried to ease south to Geneva to announce (what in hindsight) was a pretty ham-fisted attempt to grab some press ink with some other like minded mayors for a "mini-show" of carefully curated brands?  (editor's note: along with the use of "my friend" and "timepiece" could we agree to ban the term "curated"?  It's complete and utter bullshit.)  

In Tent Number 2:

If Animal Farm were ever to be re-told with denizens of Watch Town as the protagonists, the advent of the FHH show would be familiar.

George Orwell Animal Farm

Here's the thing, you don't tug on Superman's cape.  It was pretty foolhardy of the BaselWorld organizers to assume that they could try to give Rolex and Patek an "Atomic Wedgie" -

Courtesy of the Simpsons

Now I cannot claim to know or understand every thought process or motivation that runs through the storied hallways of Big Green in Geneva.  I respect my place in the hierarchy ; )

But what I can say is this - while Rolex, Tudor, Patek and Chanel had every right to pick up their tents and move them south, let's not misconstrue that as a blow for the Proletariat of Watch Town.  The "letter of secession" makes it pretty clear that these four brands made their decision based on what would work for them.  Several other not-so-fancy brands may not be invited to join the party.

And ladies and gentlemen, train your eyes to the center ring here in the Big Top!:
BaselWorld was clearly living in a different reality than a lot of the larger brands that were willing to continue to pay the price to be there.  And truthfully?  These are some of the real victims in this three-ring shit-show.  If you are a Richemont brand?  You are safe, Watches and Wonders has you covered.  If you are viewed "luxurious and exclusive enough"?  Not a problem, FHH will certainly deem you worthy and you can join them.  But what about some of those other big, notable, and dare I say it - POPULAR brands that actually sell a LOT of watches?  Where do they get to go?  

You get the idea.

Now I still like my personal crack-pot theory that Hayek the Younger has been sitting back in his stronghold in the Biel/Bienne hinterlands, biding his time and waiting to come back to BaselWorld. But then again, I have frequently been guilty of the Dunning-Kruger Bias ; )

Fall Repeat - I Could Do It Better Myself! The Brand CEO

Or, a cautionary tale on the realities of the watch business.

In a former life, I was not in the watch business on any level whatsoever.  I bought the three US based watch magazines with the same fervor of an 8 year old buying baseball cards. Okay, that example might be out of date, but take your young child's current enthusiasm and insert it here ; )

When you admire a business or industry from afar, it is quite easy to see things through rose-colored glasses.  A good friend of mine dreamed of working for a European based professional cycling team.  He wanted to be the guy who was there at the finish line to assist the next Bernard Hinault off his bike at a stage finish of the Tour de France.  After three years of living in shitty hotels around the world, multiple cases of bronchitis, a failed marriage (former wife left him for a barista. To paraphrase her parting words: "at least he had a steady job and was home on weekends") and getting a good scare after getting jabbed by an IV bag's bloody, used needle, he realized that $50,000 a year was not worth it.  Reflecting back, he did have the ability to curse in French, Portuguese, Italian, Spanish, Dutch and one other language that he still can't identify, some scratched-up water bottles, and a signed jersey from a race winner in some minor,  Eastern European stage race that is no longer in existence.  His former wife earned an MBA and that former Barista now works for a well-respected NGO in micro finance, and has given a well-received TED Talk. The point being? Sometimes dreams are just that...

But let's get back to watches.  Despite the fact that I have no hesitation to call bullshit on certain situations, I suffer no delusions as to the difficulty of trying to run, or even work for a brand.  Today, let's start at the top and think about that rockstar - the CEO.

As has been mentioned before, the late 90s and early Oughts brought with them the era of the watch brand CEO as rock star. We all know that Biver was Blancpain, Omega then Hublot. We know that Frederique Constant were led by the Stas family, and that Thierry Stern is the latest (and perhaps last) Stern family member that will helm the ship as the gold medal winner in the genetic Olympics.  Now in most other industries, a CEO is, well, just not that sexy.  For whatever reason (and we all theorize about it) watch CEOs suddenly became not only relevant, but exciting!  And for better or worse, that has been steadily changing over the past few years.  And with it we have seen some pretty dramatic falls from some pretty lofty heights.

As armchair experts, we assume that as a CEO you live a pretty easy, idyllic life -

You roll into the office at around 10:00 AM, traipse through the production facility wishing all of the watchmakers well, grab the paper and plop your feet up on your desk as an espresso magically appears at your side.  You might then speak briefly with a sales manager hearing the wonderful results, then you saunter down to the executive dining room for lunch.  After lunch you're off to the airport where a private jet whisks you off to Italy for a photo-op with your favorite footballer who trades you a signed jersey for a (retail) $20,000 watch. You have a lovely early dinner with said star, team president and other hangers-on.  Then back to the private jet that whisks you home, where your stunning (not-so-age appropriate) partner is waiting for you wearing little more than a smile.  

This is, of course, all bullshit.

So I thought I would share with you a montage of of the Swiss and Japanese CEO's I have worked with and give you a sense of what their day was like:

4:15 - rudely awakened by a random call from an overseas sales manager who despite working for a company that manufactures, markets and sells wrist watches, has still not grasped the concept of international time zones.  But what can you do?  He's the nephew of one of your Board members.

6:00 - after stealing back 15 - 20 minutes of sleep, you have to get up, put on your track suit and take the dog out before you have another unfortunate incident that will require strong cleaning products to remedy if you don't get the puppy on the leash and out into the garden in the next 45, 44, 43 seconds!

6:20 - you made the mistake of bringing your cell phone with you on the walk which is now taking longer than usual as you have a call from the head of assembly, informing you that there was a leak in the lavatory that has now seeped down into the workshop.  You are now really regretting not selling the beautiful old workshop (great for photo opportunities and media "moments" but your watchmakers hate it) when you were approached by that smooth talking, but slightly dodgy real-estate agent who was shopping on the behalf of a very wealthy client hailing from a former Soviet Republic/Stan, who could not be named, but who you suspect belongs to a "fraternal" organization made up of other mysterious fellows that is not the Elks or the Masons.  

7:15 - chasing the kids to hurry up and get ready!  Your partner has already left for work, and today's your day to get the children to their three different schools which are, you guessed it, in three different villages.

8:20 - all three now safely deposited at their institutions of learning, you work the phone (via your hands-free set-up) as you drive on to the office.  No work has taken place in the workshop.  The plumber is, apparently, on vacation in Majorca, and you are now reaching out to a regional assembler to see if they can help you out in the short term by handling the assembly of a week's worth of production.

8:55 - you sprint past the main entry way where you clap eyes on the journalist who is there for an interview (set to start in five, no make that four minutes).  Brief pleasantries are exchanged, and you make your way to one of the conference rooms.  This is the same room that was used for the company yoga class last night, and is still a wee-bit "aromatic" this morning.  

9:05 - after apologizing for the absence of a coffee (nobody remembered to order more Nespressso pods), you begin the dog and pony show with the journalist who you realize is just slightly older than your eldest child, and might be finally old enough to vote in their first election this year.  Halfway through the interview/inquisition you are then treated to the sales pitch from said journalist who presents you with a rate card for today's interview.  If you want it to run beyond their instagram feed, it will cost X.  You make a mental note to cancel the lunch reservation and wrap this up as quickly as possible.  A "goodie bag" is assembled and passed over, and you move onto the next hurdle.

10:45 - Regional Assembler owner calls to inform you that they are "SLAMMED" with orders from (Regional Assembler begins to drop big, expensive names), but maybe you could meet at the most expensive restaurant near his shop to discuss the possibilities over lunch?

11:05 - after reviewing the plumbing situation, you call your brother-in-law who you remember did a 6 month apprenticeship back in the 80s, and might be able to help out.

11:50 - you remember that tomorrow is the board meeting. You put together a shopping list for food and beverages, and NESPRESSO PODS, Dammit!

12:30 - you arrive at the most expensive restaurant near the assembler's shop to find the assembler and someone who is very clearly not his wife sharing the remains of a not inexpensive bottle of champagne.  You do the mental math and realize that you probably never should have called him in the first place.  Your guests order half the menu, you order a cup of soup and still water, trying to figure out how to explain this to your accounting department.  In the end, apologies all around, but we're just too busy to help you.  "But we should do this again some time!"

2:43 - back at the workshop, your brother in law is on the scene, has somehow managed to field strip the leaky joint, run out to the local home improvement store, purchased the requisite replacement gaskets, re-assembled the connection, flushed the pipes and...
Good as new!  He even grabs a mop to help the cleaning crew clean up the mess!  You make a mental note, contact the purchasing office and - with your own money - buy him a new watch with your company discount.  Thank you's are exchanged and you make plans for him and his family to come over at the weekend.  All is right with the world... for now.

4:45 - after about a ZILLION calls from overseas agents, you then have your meeting with the marketing department who are very, very keen to make a regional F3 racer a brand ambassador.  You google the name and realize that said F3 racer is the godson of your head of marketing.  You keep your poker face, and suggest a follow-up meeting about it next week.

8:30 - You have nearly finished preparing your presentation for the board meeting tomorrow night, your partner calls to ask you if you could please pick up your middle child who missed the bus after her karate class.  So you gather up a few files, grab your shopping list for tomorrow, grab your laptop and head to your car, your daughter, and finally - home.

Yes, it's not all glamour ; )

Fall Repeat - The Sales / Brand Manager

This first saw the light of day in "The Blog Formerly Known As Tempus Fugit" back before the COVID 19 Pandemic reared its ugly head. With the latest shenanigans of the current Presidential administration continuing to baffle one and all, I don't see any resolution coming any time soon to the current not-so-great state of Watch Town. But at least this time around people aren't dying by the truckload due to misinformation.

I Could Do It Better Myself - The Sales/Brand Manager

5:30 AM - The alarm goes off, and tempting though it may be to hit the snooze, you pull yourself out of bed, jump on your Peleton and commit yourself to another 30 minutes of fitness.

6:50 AM - Showered, you make yourself presentable, grab a coffee and fire up your laptop for the weekly video conference with HQ.

8:15 AM - your daughter calls to remind you that as it is your weekend, she will be waiting for you outside of school following STEM club at 4:00 PM.  You make a note in your phone and set the alarm for 3:45 to remind yourself.

9:05 AM - safely settled at your desk, you scroll through the "Butcher's Bill" to try and figure out why you got blindsided a few hours ago when HQ informed you that:

1.  You need to close Retail Partner A.  No real detail given.

2.  You need to continue to extend credit to retail partner Z, even though they have not paid their invoices for the past 5 months, hit you with $26,333 of "co-op" advertising expenses, and requiring you to arrange a "junket" for the owner, the owner's current (not his wife) girlfriend, their assistant manager and 2 of their "loyal" customers to visit the HQ, factory, and maybe, you know if there's time, ski a little...

While reviewing all of the internal and external communication, you happen to glance up at a map of Los Angeles and it all becomes clear.  Retail Partner Z is opening up a new "fuck you" store literally across the hall from Retail Partner A, and demanding (literally) that your boss in Switzerland cut off Retail Partner A.  You then remember one of the pictures on the wall at HQ in New York with your boss, the girlfriend (not wife) of your boss, Retail Partner Z and half of the Los Angeles Lakers, courtside at the Staple's Center.

And of course, it just so happens that you are based in (or at least near) Los Angeles...

10:00 AM - Retail Partner A's store has opened.  You meet the owner and the two of you head out of the mall to a nearby restaurant so that you can speak in private.  Retail Partner A was the first store you ever opened an account for your first brand, some 20 years ago.  To his credit, Retail Partner A says he totally understands, he has seen this coming.  You personally really like Retail Partner A.  He and his wife have always sent your daughter both birthday and Christmas presents.  They insist on picking up the check even when they are your guests, they are old-school, shook Sinatra's hand type of retailers.  You excuse yourself for a few minutes, go out to the street and call your boss.  You explain that as a sign of good will, you need authorization to buy back the product.  Considering that most of it is still untouched (as it was just delivered 3 weeks ago), in the wrapping, you can simply walk it across the hallway to Retail Partner Z when they open.  Your boss is in agreement so long as 90% of the pieces are re-sellable.  You do the mental math (you looked at the safe count while you were speaking with Retailer A, and there are 13 pieces that have some wear, which tips it to 15% of the inventory.

You go back in, tell them exactly what your boss told you, but suggest that they take 6 of the slightly worn pieces that are the most likely to sell, and blow them out at 40% off, ensuring that the store can make 10% profit off of them, and be in compliance for the buy-back.

You suggest an early lunch (it is now 11:45) and once again, Retail Partner A grabs the check and will not let you pay.

12:50 PM - You walk Retail Partner A back to their store, and take a moment to make some calls before your next appointment - 175 feet across the mall's "hallway" to visit the soon to be opened 5th location of Retail Partner Z.

Retail Partner Z makes you wait a good 20 minutes in the construction area.  Once done, Retail Partner Z excuses himself, and Junior (second born son) takes over the meeting.  In a very short timeframe (less than a year) Junior has managed to piss off every brand rep he has come in contact with, and driven out more than half of the sales staff at their flagship store in Beverly Hills.  You have resigned yourself to simply nodding and smiling.  But Junior wants to flex his muscles and decides to get pissy with you anyway.  He demands to know why Retail Partner A still is carrying your brand.  You explain that they (Retail Partner Z) will have the exclusive rights the day that they open - which is still 45 days out.

2:00 PM - Junior says - "Hey, I'm hungry.  Buy me lunch and we can talk about our order".  So off you go to lunch #2.  Junior, although he drove to work, decides that a few bourbons would be a good idea on a hot Los Angeles afternoon.  You pay the check (a little over $200 with tip), and Junior says that next time you need to go somewhere nicer - "You guys need to stop being so cheap!".

You walk Junior back to his car, send your best regards to his dad, and hope like hell he does not get stopped by the cops.  3:00 PM is a bit early in the day, but he insisted.

You walk back through the mall to pick up the book your daughter asked you to order on Amazon, and as you're walking to the garage, you hear someone calling to you.  You turn to see your fried Julia, who is the district manager for Unobtainium, one of the hottest watch brands that is finally going into independent retail.  She has just finished meeting with Retail Partner A, and is happy with the outcome.  She thanks you for the referral, and comments on how much people must love them as flowers and two gourmet baskets arrived along with 2 bottles of champagne during her pitch.  You make plans to see each other at the Las Vegas shows in June, and hop in your car.  You make a mental note that you will not be able to submit the gift baskets and flowers on your expense account as they are not part of your approved expenses.

3:45 - The alarm on your iPhone goes off, just as you are rounding the corner to pick up your daughter.  Yes, you are early, but you savor the moment, listen to the last 10 minutes of your podcast, and think about the weekend.

Reheated Leftovers - I Could Do It Better Myself - The Sales/Brand Manager

This first came out several years ago, but still rings true ; )

I Could Do It Better Myself - The Sales/Brand Manager

5:30 AM - The alarm goes off, and tempting though it may be to hit the snooze, you pull yourself out of bed, jump on your Peleton and commit yourself to another 30 minutes of fitness.

6:50 AM - Showered, you make yourself presentable, grab a coffee and fire up your laptop for the weekly video conference with HQ.

8:15 AM - your daughter calls to remind you that as it is your weekend, she will be waiting for you outside of school following STEM club at 4:00 PM.  You make a note in your phone and set the alarm for 3:45 to remind yourself.

9:05 AM - safely settled at your desk, you scroll through the "Butcher's Bill" to try and figure out why you got blindsided a few hours ago when HQ informed you that:

1.  You need to close Retail Partner A.  No real detail given.

2.  You need to continue to extend credit to retail partner Z, even though they have not paid their invoices for the past 5 months, hit you with $26,333 of "co-op" advertising expenses, and requiring a "junket" for the owner, the owner's current (not his wife) girlfriend, their assistant manager and 2 of their "loyal" customers to visit the HQ, factory, and maybe, you know if there's time, ski a little...

While reviewing all of the internal and external communication, you happen to glance up at a map of Los Angeles and it all becomes clear.  Retail Partner Z is opening up a new "f - you" store literally across the hall from Retail Partner A, and demanding (literally) that your boss in Switzerland cut off Retail Partner A.  You then remember one of the pictures on the wall at HQ in New York with your boss, the girlfriend (not wife) of your boss, Retail Partner Z and half of the Los Angeles Lakers, courtside at the Staple's Center.

And of course, it just so happens that you are based in (or at least near) Los Angeles...

10:00 AM - Retail Partner A's store has opened.  You meet the owner and the two of you head out of the mall to a nearby restaurant so that you can speak in private.  Retail Partner A was the first store you ever opened an account for your first brand, some 20 years ago.  To his credit, Retail Partner A says he totally understands, he has seen this coming.  You personally really like Retail Partner A.  He and his wife have always sent your daughter both birthday and Christmas presents.  They insist on picking up the check even when they are your guests, they are old-school, shook Sinatra's hand type of retailers.  You excuse yourself for a few minutes, go out to the street and call your boss.  You explain that as a sign of good will, you need authorization to buy back the product.  Considering that most of it is still untouched (as it was just delivered 3 weeks ago), in the wrapping, you can simply walk it across the hallway to Retail Partner Z when they open.  Your boss is in agreement so long as 90% of the pieces are re-sellable.  You do the mental math (you looked at the safe count while you were speaking with Retailer A, and there are 13 pieces that have some wear, which tips it to 15% of the inventory.

You go back in, tell them exactly what your boss told you, but suggest that they take 6 of the slightly worn pieces that are the most likely to sell, and blow them out at 40% off, ensuring that the store can make 10% profit off of them, and be in compliance for the buy-back.

You suggest an early lunch (it is now 11:45) and once again, Retail Partner A grabs the check and will not let you pay.

12:50 PM - You walk Retail Partner A back to their store, and take a moment to make some calls before your next appointment - 175 feet across the mall's "hallway" to visit the soon to be opened 5th location of Retail Partner Z.

Retail Partner Z makes you wait a good 20 minutes in the construction area.  Once done, Retail Partner Z excuses himself, and Junior (second born son) takes over the meeting.  In a very short timeframe (less than a year) Junior has managed to piss off every brand rep he has come in contact with, and driven out more than half of the sales staff at their flagship store in Beverly Hills.  You have resigned yourself to simply nodding and smiling.  But Junior wants to flex his muscles and decides to get pissy with you anyway.  He demands to know why Retail Partner A still is carrying your brand.  You explain that they (Retail Partner Z) will have the exclusive rights the day that they open - which is still 45 days out.

2:00 PM - Junior says - "Hey, I'm hungry.  Buy me lunch and we can talk about our order".  So off you go to lunch #2.  Junior, although he drove to work, decides that a few bourbons would be a good idea on a hot Los Angeles afternoon.  You pay the check (a little over $200 with tip), and Junior says that next time you need to go somewhere nicer - "You guys need to stop being so cheap!".

You walk Junior back to his car, send your best regards to his dad, and hope like hell he does not get stopped by the cops.  3:00 PM is a bit early in the day, but he insisted.

You walk back through the mall to pick up the book your daughter asked you to order on Amazon, and as you're walking to the garage, you hear someone calling to you.  You turn to see your fried Julia, who is the district manager for Unobtainium, one of the hottest watch brands that is finally going into independent retail.  She has just finished meeting with Retail Partner A, and is happy with the outcome.  She thanks you for the referral, and comments on how much people must love them as flowers and two gourmet baskets arrived along with 2 bottles of champagne during her pitch.  You make plans to see each other at the Las Vegas shows in June, and hop in your car.  You make a mental note that you will not be able to submit the gift baskets and flowers on your expense account as they are not part of your approved expenses.

3:45 - The alarm on your iPhone goes off, just as you are rounding the corner to pick up your daughter.  Yes, you are early, but you savor the moment, listen to the last 10 minutes of your podcast, and think about the weekend. 

It's Been A Minute...

Ladies and gentleman, it is my sincere pleasure to introduce you the Henki Time - The Bulldog Edition

www.henkitime.com

As former regular readers will know, I handed the keys to Tempus Fugit to a new owner nearly a year ago. And while that may or may not have been the right decision for me, I respect the new owner/ owners efforts and wish them well.

With that said, I found that I was (more often than not) reading a lot of the same thing in virtually every outlet. And I had enough kind messages from both brands and readers that I thought it might be time to fly a new flag, and thus I welcome you to Henki Time - the Bulldog Edition.

What the hell is a bulldog edition?

For those of you unfamiliar, a bulldog edition harkens back to the old days of the newspaper business. A "bulldog edition" was an early (or even earliest) edition of the newspaper on a given morning. Large scale events would necessitate that newspaper publishers create whole entire editions to accommodate breaking news. Yes young people, there was a time before cable news and the internet...

So what are we covering? New releases, interviews, industry news. And we will be diving a bit beyond just watches, so we encourage you to check in from time to time.

So, don't call it a comeback ; )

I look forward to continuing the conversation!

Henki

North Shore, MA, USA

January 19, 2023 

Shame - It's Actually Possible We Don't Have Any...

So I wanted to follow-up on my post of this morning.  And it seems we have some initial answers. And they are pretty disappointing.

Earlier today, an outlet far more popular than this one had the intestinal fortitude to speak some truth to power and put himself out there -

https://watchilove.com/open-letter-to-the-watch-industry

Dan-Andrei Kluska writes for a much bigger audience, and is sought after by much fancier brands than yours truly ; ). 

It says something about the situation that we find ourselves in, that someone is willing to put himself out there in an effort to help OTHERS, because in truth, there is nothing necessarily "in it" for him. He has my complete and total respect.

As I type this, the invasion continues. Tens of thousands of women, children and their pets desperately trying to get to safety. Think about that, their first concern is their children, the second their pets. I don't get the impression that they are packaging up their watch collections to ensure that they have all of the original boxes ad papers. 

It's a shit-show, and there isn't much that many of us can do, but there are some small things we as journalists, you as fans, and perhaps most importantly, the brands themselves can do. I am writing this with the assumption that on a basic, fundamental level, we can all agree that mindlessly killing innocent people and destroying their homes is maybe not a positive thing.

And before we duck and cover under that familiar "we don't get political" stance, I think that we can agree that the indiscriminate bombing of a helpless civilian population is not political. It is barbaric. Which brings us to the next question, do you really think that a tagline like this is going to work to stimulate Christmas/ Holiday sales:

"When you're working hard to destroy and displace an entire civilian population, every second counts!"

Maybe it's time for all you wonderful watch brands to sack up and take a stand? BP, and Shell have pulled out. Think about that for a minute. When some of the worst corporate citizens on the face of the earth feel that their image will be too tarnished by continuing to do business in Russia, that should tell you something. Adidas has dropped the Russian Football Federation. Adidas has been willing to look the other way for years regarding doping, dubious bidding practices to secure World Cups and Olympic Games as well as the most corrupt organization in all of sport, FIFA. When even Adidas drops you, well that is when you've hit bottom. Ford motor company and Volvo are leaving and the beat goes on. Perhaps the one brand's announcement that should let SWATCH, LVMH, Richemont, Rolex, Patek and everyone else realize that they are potentially catering a pariah party is Harley Davidson.  And this is a BIG deal, as sales to Russia represent a good slice of European sales which combine for over 30% of the global total. When the preferred supplier to outlaw bikers around the world decides that you're "too gangster" even for them?!?  Does this not say something loud and clear? 

And in truth, it's not even about a full-on boycott. What about using your social media accounts to simply say, I don't know, "No More War"?  The Lego company has donated A LOT of money to aid refugees and just announced it. And I think this is the thing that I find so frustrating in this entire situation - helping the helpless of Ukraine does not automatically mean you are blaming the Russian people. Which in truth, is not the point of any boycott or protest. The Russian people are just that, people. From all indications, it seems clear that they do not want this war either. Boycotting Russia does not mean boycotting Russians. And if cutting off watch sales for (hopefully) a few months can help curtail the war and stop this madness? 

Then let it.

Stick A Fork In It

It seems that last call has come around for Baselworld. Long story short, what was once THE WATCH FAIR has  said: "no mas", at least for the foreseeable future.

Remember that warm and fuzzy message that Baselworld was, to quote that other great commentator on the watch business - Kool Moe Dee:

Comin' back, like "Return of the Jedi" ?

Well, apparently not so much. It would seem that the much vaunted 24/7/365 Baselworld Spirit is now nothing more than the wistful memories of a romantic encounter years before. 

Early this morning, news limped into the North Shore HQ of Tempus Fugit that Baselworld 2 - Electric Boogaloo was going to be on hiatus for yet another year, and that Managing Director Michel Loris-Melikoff would be dusting off his resume and pursuing other professional challenges.

Here is the press release, in its entirety:

Press Release: Baselworld relaunch needs more time

Basel 12 November 2021 Baselworld organizers have decided to take more time for the launch of the new concept. Baselworld, scheduled for spring 2022, will therefore not take place. This decision is based on the one hand on the experience gained from the Pop Up Event at the Geneva Watch Days and on intensive discussions with manufacturers and retailers. On the other hand, it takes into account the fact that it is particularly difficult to launch a new concept for a new target segment due to the renewed aggravation of the COVID situation and the associated uncertainty among customers.  "Over the past few months, we have studied in detail our Watches, Jewellery and Gems ecosystem and gained important insights from discussions with major industry representatives," says Beat Zwahlen, CEO of the MCH Group. "The conclusion is that the market exists for a B:B:C platform that brings together medium-sized and specialized manufacturers with independent retailers. But their needs must be analyzed in more detail. This means we need to have significantly more time to get there."  In the coming months, therefore, an interdisciplinary team from the MCH Group will analyze the target segments and, in close exchange with manufacturers and retailers, make a deep dive into their marketing and transaction needs. In this context, particular attention will be paid to the latest trends in marketing and distribution with a view to the post-pandemic period, especially internationalization and digitization. The goal remains to create added value for the community's business in its target markets with the internationally anchored Baselworld brand and innovative platforms.  Due to the cancellation of Baselworld 2022, Managing Director Michel Loris-Melikoff has decided to leave the company and take on a new challenge. Loris-Melikoff had taken over the management of Baselworld in 2018 under difficult conditions and brought it to a successful execution in 2019. In a short period of time, he managed to gain access to the industry and win its respect. He initiated and helped shape the necessary transformation and repositioning of Baselworld. The MCH Group regrets his decision. It thanks him for his tireless commitment and wishes him all the best for his future engagements.

Well, there is a lot to unpack here, but as we say in the mediation game, Baselworld  didn't get here overnight. And unlike what a horny teenage boy might whisper in your ear at the drive-in movie, you don't get a "little bit pregnant".

So let's reconstruct part of the series of events that led us here, shall we?

1.    For the past several years - let's say from 2016 to the final gasp in 2019, Baselworld has been shedding participating brands at an ever increasing rate. The stated explanations were myopic at best. The message was consistently - We at Baselworld are AWESOME, and if you are too foolish to see that, then we never wanted you anyway!

And then...

2.      Swatch Group, en masse, gently explained what Baselworld could do with their fair and the associated expenses. And of course all sorts of platitudes were issued from the fair organizers as to how much better Baselworld would be without Swatch Group! Spacious, well appointed areas encouraging customers, brands and retailers to interact! Well, we waited, and we saw...

Shamelessly borrowed from the worldwide infoweb

Baselworld 2019 already had the stink of death, and eerily resembled a midwestern shopping mall in a once prosperous, now forgotten factory town that was once bustling but now deserted since the factory that employed half the town shut down.

At the final go-round in 2019, you could have literally driven a double-wide trailer through the center of Hall 1 and not hit a thing. No amount of impromptu fashion shows, or Lamborghinis on pedestals managed to change that reality.

3.     Avarice - like a grasping bully, the Baselworld sales team in 2020 attempted to get money from every brand that it could, even when the organizers had already decided to cancel the fair. If you signed a contract (even if you did so the day before the cancelation notice went out) you would be getting regular, sometimes rather menacing communications insisting that you pay up, even though the fair was not going to happen. 

And the result?  Well, let's just say that the people running watch brands don't tend to forget that type of experience. So when the call went out for participants for the next iteration of Baselworld, there were very few takers.

Where are your friends when you need them?

4.    You don't tug on Superman's cape - Rolex, Patek and some of the other big dogs decided that enough was enough, and announced their departure.

And that final group departure effectively sucked all of the remaining oxygen from Hall 1. 

And what then remained? Nothing but broken dreams and the unpleasant odor of a bargain priced cologne, flamboyantly labeled: 

"Baselworld Sprit!"  

A Summer Day Dream - What If?

Author's note - what follows is purely fanciful speculation based on nothing other than the whimsical musings of an horological raconteur during the very slow summer watch maker's holiday. None of it is based on anything other than my rather vivid (and sometimes undernourished) imagination. It is intended solely and completely as entertainment.

What if...

Rolex Bought Patek 

I know, sounds pretty nutty, but as summer daydreams go, it's got a bit of a toothsome quality to it.  Remember a few years ago when Stern the Younger floated the idea of possibly selling Patek?  Well, in the interest of summer fantasies, what if Rolex sacked up, and bought Patek?  Now I don't claim to be any sort of authority on Swiss law or the rules of business governance, but as both are private companies, would either be required to acknowledge such a sale/acquisition to anyone other than their board/s?

More to the point, of ANY other independent brand out there, in terms of how they position themselves, communicate with the press, and do business, it's hard to imagine 2 corporate cultures that could be any more similar (and hence easy to integrate if even "unofficially").  

I know, it's a crazy idea...

What if...

The Hayek Family Ceded Control of the Swatch Group 

While the sky isn't necessarily falling, Swatch Group has not enjoyed the most "amazing" years recently. Moreover, as it is a publicly traded company/group of companies, it would seem that a leadership position in one of the "jewels" of the group seems to be predicated on a DNA Olympics of sorts, in which being born with a last name that starts with H and ends with K appears to be the surest path to running one of the world's 10 most important brands (Breguet, Blancpain). While Omega has a CEO swimming in a different genetic pool, Blancpain and Breguet were both being run by Hayek the Even Younger. I have never met Marc Hayek, but from all I've heard he's a perfectly nice guy and as far as I can tell, he did not crash Blancpain (in charge since 2002) or Breguet (in charge since 2010) during his stewardship of both brands. Which begs the question - why now? As there do not appear to have been any significant seismic shifts (either positive or negative) why now? Official news teased its way out initially on the 12th, and in depth on Friday that  Lionel a Marca would be taking the helm from Marc Hayek, who would be remaining as "President" of Breguet.  

There does seem to be a "Dear Leader" approach to succession plans within the group. Could this mean that Hayek the Even Younger is about to be kicked upstairs and take the big wheel? As there has been no clear or obvious attempts to develop any significant leaders within the group who are not named Hayek to take over some day, my Summer Daydream leads me to wonder if this is no daydream at all and Marc Hayek is about to be promoted again.

What if...

Swatch Group Returned to BaselWorld

In what would be perhaps the most "Baller" move ever, Swatch Group agrees to come back to BaselWorld, but only if they take a partial ownership in the fair and a few board seats at MCH. In some ways they might have already shown some of their cards. They had planned to bring three or so of their less "well-heeled" brands to Las Vegas (which if we're being honest, is a watch show that should be put out of its, and our collective misery). Now with the Delta variant spreading COVID faster than swinging couples spread syphilis, gonorrhea and unplanned pregnancies at Plato's Retreat circa 1976, it now seems unlikely that this will happen as Nevada is an exceedingly "Hot" location, and I'm not talking about the gambling, legal prostitution and all you can eat buffets. Several brands have already reversed course and are not going to be attending. So whether or not the three ships of the mighty Swatch regatta will dock in Sin City remains to be seen, but despite the power of my Summer Daydream, I tend to think maybe not.

What I've Learned - the "We're nearly out of COVID19" Edition

With Watches and Wonders come and gone, and with most of us still watching for and wondering about something actually coming out of what in hindsight seems to be the watch show equivalent of the trophy every millennial kid in America got just for showing up to soccer practice, I thought it might be a moment to, in the words of the Poet Laureate of Dallas/Miami -

"Stop, collaborate and listen!".

Well, we all stopped, those of us in the Fourth and Fifth Estate were ready to listen.  But in the end?  There was precious little collaboration between the brands, their communications teams, the fair and the press corp as a whole. Or as they have been known to say in Watch Town - 

"If it wasn't reported on in Hodinkee, it didn't really happen".

I kid, sort of...

So while I am not really convinced that Watch Town on the whole has learned a damn thing coming out of COVID19 and Watches and Wonder 2021, I came away with some new nuggets of personal awareness, and reaffirmation of some previously held views:

1.  Magic Beans - Unless you're planning on growing a mutant plant, committing daylight robbery, and then "giantacide" during your getaway, magic beans are best left in children's stories.  Or put another way, apart from Rolex, Patek, Tudor and maybe a teensie bit from the Richemont pack, for everyone else who participated in Watches and Wonders, the payoff was Jack-Shit, and Jack left town.  Watches and Wonders promised a lot, delivered on not too much at all - but just as someone is always willing to sell you a nickel for a dime, there will be someone to buy your "magic beans".

2.  Press releases work better when they are actually, I don't know, released.  Curious to relate, registration as a member of the press for Watches and Wonders triggered almost ZERO communication from the brands themselves, and only a daily email from the Watches and Wonders "communications team" informing me about what an amazing job they were doing, and how totally awesome Watches and Wonders was. In the end I simply camped out at brands various social media outlets and got the news there.

3.  Certain media outlets, not unlike prostitutes tend not to provide "service" without "payment". Unfortunately several brand pr and communication managers spent all of their allowance last year, and with the cost of Watches and Wonders didn't have sufficient monies to grease the wheels that connect "honest, unbiased reporting" with business.  

4. Friendship in Watch Town, as in pretty much every other business (if we are being honest with ourselves) is about as certain as the next paycheck.

5.  "My friend" still means "you f'ng asshole." 

Watches and Wondering...

So, another watch show in the books, and MY FIRST EVER Watches and Wonders / SIHH show under my belt and I think I can honestly say, so what?

I think it's important to go back a few steps to get a better handle on just exactly what Watches and Wonders started life as, what it has attempted to move to, and why it's clear that this year's iteration was really not quite ready for primetime.

Watches and Wonders morphed out of the SIHH. The SIHH was a thinly veiled pr piece for Richemont and a few select "chums" such as AP and one or two other "elite" brands. It was a closed shop as to who would receive an invitation to attend as press and it was run with a precise schedule that demanded not only your attendance, but unflagging participation in every event, presser, etc. Failure to fully comply would mean expulsion (or worse).

And then along came COVID-19, and with it - opportunity!  BaselWorld for all of its egalitarian appeal has been mismanaged for some time. Brands were frustrated, retailers hated going, and many of my colleagues in the Fourth and Fifth Estates would attend somewhat erratically.  And there was the small opening that the folks in Geneva had been waiting for! One by one, the dominoes began to topple.  Rolex, Patek, LVMH, and the rest of the big dogs took it on the heel and toe and headed south.

And then, the big virtual event that we had all been waiting for...

Fell flat.

Communication from the organizers amounted to a fairly anemic press release each morning. A "watch media personality" hosted a so-called "morning show". Not unlike a lot of Zoom meetings we have to show up for in our normal workday, it was more of an inconvenience than a pleasure to sit through presentations that ranged from very polished to something that a junior high school AV Club might have knocked together during 5th period study hall.

Press releases from the brands were sporadic and in some instances non-existent. Press coverage primarily focused on Rolex, Tudor, a wee bit on some Richemont brands (admittedly not too much) and finally Patek on the final day.

My friend who has seen more watch shows than most of us has a saying that I have applied in my working life -

"You can't email a handshake".

Now granted, in this day and age we have a pandemic that is prohibiting travel and close contact. So maybe remove handshake and replace it with elbow-bump, but the point is simple - a show needs gravitas and excitement.  And frankly? It needs better organization. Simply put, for the amount of money brands spent to participate in this year's event, they would be forgiven for feeling a bit shortchanged on this one.  Now the sales argument could have been this - "Participate in our virtual show this year, and we promise to include you next year when we are back "in person".

Another intriguing feature was the emergence of privateers in a so-called open show. "News" (excuse me while I die laughing) outlets doubling as PR / Marketing agencies cutting deals with brands to create content for them and in some instances releasing it on their own platforms in advance of a release coming from the brand's own PR staff to the rest of the press corps. Call me old-fashioned, but just as there is a reason why foxes aren't typically employed by Tyson or Perdue to manage the chicken coops, it's maybe not the best idea to sell out on the idea of a fair and open press/communications strategy out of convenience, expedience or simple laziness. Now the typical refrain I hear on social media is - "Hey, I'm trying to make a living."  

And that's as may be, but to quote that other great commentator on the watch business, Robert Townsend in Hollywood Shuffle -

Where It All Started - Wrapping Up a 90 Day Essay and Finally Talking About Seregin's Watch Club

I had never lived in California before moving to San Francisco from Europe in 2000.  Having said that, people from LA, Sacramento, the 805 and other regional hubs would argue that I still  hadn't lived in California - let's just say San Francisco is, in many ways, a special place unto itself ; )

Courtesy of Meister Singer

Seregin's in San Francisco is probably the most responsible party for my love of watches. It is also where I first discovered MeisterSinger back in 2003. Paul Seregin has been operating in the downtown area for quite some time.  He specialized in pre-owned watches, and the diplomatic way to put it was that Seregin's didn't waste money on interior decorating, but he always had the deepest, best collection of watches pretty much anywhere. Unlike the other stores that would put big pictures of celebrity pals up on their walls, Seregin's was really more of a secret club that didn't go out of their way to self-promote. While back in the early part of the century everyone knew Shreve, if you were to check the wrists of members of the San Francisco Giants, Oakland Raiders, the Giants, the A's or the Warriors (that's Golden State, not the fictional New York City gang) you might be surprised that almost all of them were members of the Serregin's "Watch Club". 

The Warriors

And it went beyond that.  Walking into Seregin's on a Saturday morning to look at watches I did a double-take that nearly broke my neck as I am fairly certain I was face to face with the player who would be named MVP that year.  Who was it?  Well that was part of the code at Seregin's. You didn't blab about your brushes with the famous. You didn't bother these folks when they were "out of the office", and you certainly wouldn't dream of trying to sneak a selfie (which admittedly would have been much more difficult with the technology of the time). I have on more than one occasion discussed the pros and cons of Breitling with future hall of famers - I came down on the con side, and remain there to this day ; )

What did these stars buy?  Well, a lot of it could be expected - Rolex, Cartier, a fair amount of bling, which was "blingier" back then. But there were always some outliers as well. And I will always remember one Thursday afternoon in August that I had off from work, and popped into Seregin's after a walk through Union Square. I was wearing my Meister Singer.  This was back before there was really a Meister Singer collection. I walked in, a few pleasantries were exchanged, and a member of the Screen Actors Guild who may or may not be someone you have heard of (again, first rule of Seregin's Watch Club - you don't talk about Seregin's Watch Club) started chatting me up about my watch:

Famous Person:

"What is that, an altimeter?  Like, are you a skydiver?"  

Me:

"No, I suffer from vertigo and can't really handle going beyond certain heights".

Vertigo

I then had to explain that vertigo was in fact what inspired the name of the movie, not the other way around.

Famous Person:

"So it's a watch?"

(editor's note - no, I am not spicing this up for ironic sarcasm, this is literally how the conversation went).

Me:

"Yup".

At this moment, Francis Zanetti (old friend and the watch savant who coined the phrase: "The Shit That Killed Elvis" as an honorific for watches) broke in and presented the MeisterSingers (all three of them) in the three different color ways. There might have been more options, but that is what they had on hand.

I do not know which model "Famous Person" bought as I had to hustle home to get dinner ready for Wendy, but I do recall getting asked by someone in line at Starbucks 3 weeks later and asked -

"Isn't that the watch 'Famous Person' wears?"

So that you know, there was a hot minute back in 2003 where MeisterSinger almost became the "It Watch", and like Forest Gump, I was there.

Courtesy of MeisterSinger

It's been an interesting 90 days, made even more interesting as it was during what we will in the future refer to as "COVID Times".  While I've always liked MeisterSinger, missed my first one from 2003, and enjoy the one I currently wear I have become somewhat obsessed with the bronze Metris (above).  It really  captures a lot of the spirit of "slow time" has come to mean for me. And being bronze, it will take on the patterns of the wearer's memories over time.  

As I get older, I realize that time has taken on a bit of an accelerated pace.  2003 seems like it was just a few years ago.  Francis Zanetti sadly passed away (prematurely) the year Wendy and I moved to Santa Barbara (2006).  I worked for DOXA for 3 years and some change, and Tempus Fugit's odometer hit 10 years recently. I have fallen in and out of love with the world of watches so many times now that my Facebook Relationship Status should read:

"It's complicated".

But love and angst are frequently inextricably linked, and these past 90 days with MeisterSinger has definitely reminded me of how much there is still to love.

Enjoy your watches.  And take your time doing it ; )

Basel Is The New Lausanne...

Hi Boys and Girls!  Let's hop in the WABAC Machine and travel to those thrilling days of yesteryear, and go waaayyyyy back in time to...

Courtesy of the Rocky and Bullwinkle Show

May 22nd or so, 2020! 

Now I realize, that was a long, long time ago, but if you scrunch up your eyes real tight and concentrate, you might recall that the brain trust behind BaselWorld decided that the city of Basel  was the culprit, and if they changed the name from BaselWorld to Swiss Watch Week, and moved it down the road to Lausanne everything would be "New and Improved!"

Courtesy of CBS

Which now, in hindsight, appears to be about as well-thought out as New Coke was back in 1985. 

Apparently Basel was toxic (high priced hotels, less-than-friendly tram conductors yelling at Japanese and Chinese visitors - in German, and $12.00 sausage from a street vendor across the street from Hall 1). 

Well, apparently now Lausanne is so last month! The shot-callers decided that, in fact, Basel is a GREAT location, and they would change the name again!  And HOURUNIVERSE was born!

      HOURUNIVERSE: IT'S WE TIME!  

I have to be honest, I had to double check the calendar this morning to make sure it was not April 1st, but no, there is a website and everything. So straight from the Bureau of Not-So-Great Ideas, here is the press release just as I received it -

MCH is creating a new concept for a global platform for the watch, jewellery and gemstone industries: HOURUNIVERSE.

Two months to listen, analyse, identify; and create. An innovative platform to meet today's needs. To unite and support a whole community that wants to regroup, make a new start and is receptive to change. Open, modern, experimental, inclusive, user-friendly, interconnected, the MCH teams have put all their expertise and the feedback and input from customers and other stakeholders into giving birth to a new platform concept. An extended ecosystem   Live and virtual, active all year round, benefiting from the latest technologies for content, and for networking, the new platform is dedicated to players in the watch, jewellery and gemstone industries, but not exclusively. The new concept is a B2B2C meeting point that places the customer at the heart of its focus, reversing the order of the past. The entire platform is thought out and designed around the customer. This applies to all players of the distribution chain, traditional and online retailers, including those of the CPO (certified Pre-Owned).  Flanking them, the platform will build an extended ecosystem with watch, jewellery and gemstone brands, developers of new solutions in distribution, marketing and points of sale, and other players of the industry. A global, varied, interconnected, unified world. A 365 platform, with an annual live meeting Named HOURUNIVERSE, the platform will be digitally active throughout the year and will host an annual live show.  A community platform that creates bridges between buyers and sellers and all the players in the industry, it is also a place that encourages exchanges, information-sharing, content creation, reflection through talks and conferences that also provide visibility for brands and their products.  In April 2021, the community will meet at HOURUNIVERSE in Basel, Switzerland. The show will be aligned with the watchmaking events in Geneva, in the best interests of the international community which will only have to travel to Switzerland once a year. The show will reinforce contacts thanks to new tools, the creation of content, a maximum of Touch & Feel experiences, as well as moments of conviviality, networking and fully integrated events. Along with this new customer-oriented approach, a new competitive hospitality concept will also be an integral part of the packages proposed, and those associated players of Basel life will not be exempt from this involvement. The detailed concept of HOURUNIVERSE will be unveiled late August in combination with the start of marketing.   HOURUNIVERSE: IT'S WE TIME!

I can only assume that they have not read Tony Bourdain's seminal memoir on the restaurant business - Kitchen Confidential. While it does focus on the restaurant business, it is quite pertinent to the (sorry) shit show that is currently unfolding at MCH. I refer you to Mr. Bourdain's thoughts on what he referred to as: 

Owner's Syndrome and Other Medical Anommalies -

...when business drops, or fails to improve, he panics, starts looking for the quick fix. He thrashes around in an escalating state of agitation, tinkering with concept, menu, various marketing schemes. As the end draws near, these ideas are replaced by more immediately practical ones: close on Sundays...cut back staff...shut down lunch. Naturally, as the operation becomes more schizophrenic - one week French, one week Italian - as the poor schmuck tries one thing after another like a rat trying to escape a burning building, the already elusive dining public begins to detect the unmistakable odor of uncertainty, fear and approaching death. 

Now for the less cynical of you out there, A Blog To Watch has an exclusive interview, so if you're looking for a sweeter take on this slow moving train wreck, I suggest you head over there.

What to say? Well, I think that MCH is really not living in reality. And by that I mean that they do not even remotely fathom how pissed-off watch brands are, nor do they seem to remember how they screwed several brands out of thousands of Swiss francs that they could not reasonably afford to lose. They had no problem playing hard-ass with the people who were supposed to be their partners. It is, if I am honest, not unlike that abusive relationship. Your friends keep telling you to leave, but you say "You just don't understand! I can change them!"  Well, I guess we will see just how forgiving the people are who got hosed.  My guess? Not very.