A Summer Day Dream - What If?

Author's note - what follows is purely fanciful speculation based on nothing other than the whimsical musings of an horological raconteur during the very slow summer watch maker's holiday. None of it is based on anything other than my rather vivid (and sometimes undernourished) imagination. It is intended solely and completely as entertainment.

What if...

Rolex Bought Patek 

I know, sounds pretty nutty, but as summer daydreams go, it's got a bit of a toothsome quality to it.  Remember a few years ago when Stern the Younger floated the idea of possibly selling Patek?  Well, in the interest of summer fantasies, what if Rolex sacked up, and bought Patek?  Now I don't claim to be any sort of authority on Swiss law or the rules of business governance, but as both are private companies, would either be required to acknowledge such a sale/acquisition to anyone other than their board/s?

More to the point, of ANY other independent brand out there, in terms of how they position themselves, communicate with the press, and do business, it's hard to imagine 2 corporate cultures that could be any more similar (and hence easy to integrate if even "unofficially").  

I know, it's a crazy idea...

What if...

The Hayek Family Ceded Control of the Swatch Group 

While the sky isn't necessarily falling, Swatch Group has not enjoyed the most "amazing" years recently. Moreover, as it is a publicly traded company/group of companies, it would seem that a leadership position in one of the "jewels" of the group seems to be predicated on a DNA Olympics of sorts, in which being born with a last name that starts with H and ends with K appears to be the surest path to running one of the world's 10 most important brands (Breguet, Blancpain). While Omega has a CEO swimming in a different genetic pool, Blancpain and Breguet were both being run by Hayek the Even Younger. I have never met Marc Hayek, but from all I've heard he's a perfectly nice guy and as far as I can tell, he did not crash Blancpain (in charge since 2002) or Breguet (in charge since 2010) during his stewardship of both brands. Which begs the question - why now? As there do not appear to have been any significant seismic shifts (either positive or negative) why now? Official news teased its way out initially on the 12th, and in depth on Friday that  Lionel a Marca would be taking the helm from Marc Hayek, who would be remaining as "President" of Breguet.  

There does seem to be a "Dear Leader" approach to succession plans within the group. Could this mean that Hayek the Even Younger is about to be kicked upstairs and take the big wheel? As there has been no clear or obvious attempts to develop any significant leaders within the group who are not named Hayek to take over some day, my Summer Daydream leads me to wonder if this is no daydream at all and Marc Hayek is about to be promoted again.

What if...

Swatch Group Returned to BaselWorld

In what would be perhaps the most "Baller" move ever, Swatch Group agrees to come back to BaselWorld, but only if they take a partial ownership in the fair and a few board seats at MCH. In some ways they might have already shown some of their cards. They had planned to bring three or so of their less "well-heeled" brands to Las Vegas (which if we're being honest, is a watch show that should be put out of its, and our collective misery). Now with the Delta variant spreading COVID faster than swinging couples spread syphilis, gonorrhea and unplanned pregnancies at Plato's Retreat circa 1976, it now seems unlikely that this will happen as Nevada is an exceedingly "Hot" location, and I'm not talking about the gambling, legal prostitution and all you can eat buffets. Several brands have already reversed course and are not going to be attending. So whether or not the three ships of the mighty Swatch regatta will dock in Sin City remains to be seen, but despite the power of my Summer Daydream, I tend to think maybe not.

The Sound You Hear...

Is the sound of shit hitting the fan....globally.
Phil Devos - Elizabethtown (as played by Alec Baldwin)

Courtesy of the FH

April is in the books, and it was a bit of a turd.  Swiss watch exports continue to slide in a southern direction.  What seems clear is that, most likely, exports are going to continue to slide steadily towards zero.  We have already seen the initial bump (which was not really much of a bump at all) from the SIHH and BaselWorld.  

In terms of retail here in North America, we are currently in the second best sweet spot for male watch purchasing - "Dads and Grads" with high school and college graduations and Fathers Day taking place.  And the numbers for April in the US reflect an increase in watches coming in, so that perhaps that could be viewed as a bright spot, except...

The anecdotal evidence from out in the field is that traditional retail sales are still pretty flat.  But also curious to relate?  Outlets that offer "gently used" watches are growing at a fairly rapid pace.  More and more brands are turning to blockchain verification systems for pre-owned (which in many instances really means grey-market, with the "previous owner" being the brand itself), and this, in turn, ensures that resale prices continue to drop.  

We shall see what May has to offer, and let's hope the overall export numbers don't continue to dip.  But what this continued slide really reveals?  The lessons of the 70s, 2008 and the past few years seem to still not resonate with the shot callers in several brands.

Leaving Las Vegas

Now in the interest of transparency I will confide with you that I have not attended the annual watch and jewelry-cum frat party that is the twin shows put up by JCK and Couture since 2012.  And there is a reason.  The two shows were not well organized, they were at opposite ends of the strip, requiring a lot of patience, missed shuttles and inevitable taxi fares back and forth.  Things have in some ways improved, but in others fallen back to their earlier state.  

I have only the feedback of brands, writers and jewelers to go on, but the early returns are not exactly rosy.  Consider that Friday through Sunday, so if you haven't hit your targets in those few days?  You're kind of stuffed.

More and more brands are giving Las Vegas a miss, as are retailers.  A few brands, convinced that they are "outsmarting" the system will stay at a "Rat Pack" era hotel and set up "private meetings", which inevitably don't pan out.  Why?  Imagine you are attending these two shows.  It's a big enough pain to drag your ass from one end of the strip tot he other, let alone go "off road" for an appointment that may (and then again, may not) happen.  All too often the brand will decide that the first two days didn't pan out, so they blow off their remaining appointments and hit the casinos.  Yes, it's happened before and will probably continue to happen.

If you are the jeweler/store buyer you will already have determined exactly who you want to see.  You will (if you are doing your job) already have done your homework so that you will be somewhat ready.  The notion that potential customers will magically "discover" your brand is a foolish hope.  The highlight of the trip will most likely be a night out or shopping at the outlet mall.

To be very clear, the slow deterioration of the Las Vegas shows is endemic to the watch industry as a whole.  These shows still serve serve as a very valuable resource for jewelry.  But as for watches, it might be time for a different sort of show.

A Win for Graham

Graham trotted out winners with the Couture Time Award for Technical Excellence at the Couture Design Awards in Las Vegas recently.

Courtesy of Graham

The award was in recognition of Graham's Silverstone Tourbillograph.  Eric Loth, GRAHAM Founder and Member of the Board was on hand to accept the award.


Courtesy of Graham

And Eric had this to say:  "We are delighted to have received such a prestigious award for our Tourbillograph, which was developed in the vein of the GRAHAM DNA, with a powerful design and a rich technological content".

Cogratulations Graham!


www.graham-london.com



HD3 Wins Innovation Award at Couture

This just in from HD3 - Innovation Award!

Courtesy of HD3

In front of a packed house, representing every corner of the watch and jewelry industry at the 2012 Couture Design Awards, HD3 won the Couture Time Award for Innovation with their HD3 Slyde. The show took place at the Wynn Hotel in Las Vegas last week, at the end of the Couture trade show. Accepting the award on behalf of HD3 was Johnny Wizman, CEO of Luxury Montres, North American distributor for the brand.

Courtesy of HD3

HD3 Senior Designer & Founder, Jorg Hysek said "We are very proud to receive this prestigious award for such a revolutionary timepiece. As a designer, the only thing that counts is freedom and we, at HD3, are very happy to prove that taking risks for your freedom can be rewarding when done with passion".