Talk Like A Watch Pro - The Big Comeback!

Okay, it's been a minute, but after putting on The HYPE a few months back, I am happy (and you are no-doubt relieved) to know that Watch Town still has the ability to generate its very own unique lexicon.

I will be providing a refresher, but first? Some new bon mots that will have you talking and feeling just like the big boys and girls in Watch Town -

"Deep South"

The direction retail prices go when your production exceeds your sales actuals by 500% or so. We all get these emails - "Last chance for huge savings!" A multitude of reasons are offered, but long story short? Someone over-spent their allowance and mom and dad aren't happy about it. As that other great commentator on the watch business (Michael Douglas as Gordon Gekko) would remind us - 

"The key to the game is capital reserves. If you don't have enough, you can't piss in the tall weeds with the big dogs."

"Nickeled for a dime" i.e. someone sold you a nickel for a dime

It's an expensive proposition to participate in a watch show, particularly in NYC. Approximately $8,000 USD will get you enough space to place a tray full of watches on a "modest" sized table while half of humanity lazily strolls past your booth. This, of course, is great news for alternative shows...

"New investment"

Someone's buying, someone else is selling. No more, no less.

"Nobody likes to hear that their baby is ugly"
Translation?  When you are asked - "What do you think of our novelties?"  You are really being asked - "Could you please offer an affirmation that this watch is great?"

"I'mGonna'stan"
A fictional country that is more a place of the imagination than an actual reality. I'mGonna'stan is a magical place where everything will happen soon, like tomorrow, and tomorrow never arrives.  

"Pick Your Poison"
Translation - you're screwed either way, and I don't really care.

"My friend"
Translation - You fucking asshole.

"You're just like the Tin-Man"
Translation - You've got no heart.  Usually reserved for sales managers just before they are "freed up to pursue new professional opportunities".

"We don't cover brands like that"
Translation - Pay me, and then maybe we'll cover you.

"Our writers are very busy, but a sure way to promote your brand is through a sponsored post!"

See above.

"We're a small, independent brand and can't afford advertising"
Translation - My best friend's spouse works for another media outlet and we already pay them. We're not going to pay you now, or ever, but you should still make time to cover us because, you never know ; )

"We don't make any decisions regarding marketing, sales or advertising during (insert BaselWorld, SIHH, JCK, etc.), but shoot me an email in a few weeks and we can follow-up then."
Translation - Of course we make decisions at BaselWorld, SIHH, JCK, etc., we just have no desire to listen to, consider or entertain any proposal that you might be offering.  But! Here's a nice paper tote bag and an outlandishly heavy catalog (filled with poor spelling and grammatical errors)!  Thanks for stopping by!

When I Think About Dirk Pitt, I Think About...

Cufflinks?

Courtesy of DOXA

Now, in fairness, maybe there are some folks out there who want these. But please allow me to provide you with some needed context -

When I first launched the Blog Formerly Known as Tempus Fugit, I went to BaselWorld and JCK and multiple brand dinners in Los Angeles. Invariably, there would be swag. More often than not, the swag would be divided by "his" and "hers". If it was Patek Philippe it meant the guys got a tie - which were always very, very nice. If it was Hermes, the guys often got a pocket square. And inevitably, there were the cufflinks. 

Now, beyond that, as someone who used to sell DOXA SUBs on behalf of Synchron in North America, I feel empowered to make the following statement -

The "typical" DOXA SUB customer back in the day (2005 - 2012) was a bit of a stereotype. Having done several events, as well as handling customer service, and writing a lot of the ad copy, I feel confident in this assessment. Almost exclusively men, who (if the Watch U Seek forum was anything to go by) were "manly men" who had they been born at the right time would surely have enlisted after Pearl Harbor, and punched a Nazi out on Normandy Beach. 

Courtesy of DOXA

So thank goodness that DOXA still knows and understands its customer base! 

Now, in fairness, I haven't worked even adjacent to the Jenny's (DOXA company owners) for going on 15 years. And it also seems that they have finally grown their retail network beyond Watches of Switzerland. They have enough SKUs to sink a boat, and if they ever decide to do something beyond a dive watch, who knows?

With that being said, $1,280 for a complete set of DOXA SUB cufflinks ($330 per pair if bought individually) seems a bit hopeful. With that said, I do know that there are guys out there who probably had Dirk Pitt tattooed somewhere on their person, and maybe even the Jenny fish logo, so perhaps there is a market...

A funny side story, I had worked HARD to get a one page feature in what was at the time the equivalent of The Rake, Men's Vogue. I was actually really proud of this because it was not an easy thing to get done. And my boss almost scuppered the whole thing as he tried to get the writer to add 1000 words to a 300 word piece. So I posted an image of the story on the DOXA forum and the "He Men" came out in droves! Comments like:

"Men's Vogue? Better check your man card! Haw-haw!"

A lot of years have passed, and with only a pistachio dialed SUB waiting to be released, the Jennys have certainly taken it farther than we were ever allowed to go. But this latest salvo, to be honest, I just don't know. But for those die-hard DOXA guys out there who need something to help dress up their "formal" t-shirt, it's nice to know that they'll have options...

A Summer Day Dream - What If?

Author's note - what follows is purely fanciful speculation based on nothing other than the whimsical musings of an horological raconteur during the very slow summer watch maker's holiday. None of it is based on anything other than my rather vivid (and sometimes undernourished) imagination. It is intended solely and completely as entertainment.

What if...

Rolex Bought Patek 

I know, sounds pretty nutty, but as summer daydreams go, it's got a bit of a toothsome quality to it.  Remember a few years ago when Stern the Younger floated the idea of possibly selling Patek?  Well, in the interest of summer fantasies, what if Rolex sacked up, and bought Patek?  Now I don't claim to be any sort of authority on Swiss law or the rules of business governance, but as both are private companies, would either be required to acknowledge such a sale/acquisition to anyone other than their board/s?

More to the point, of ANY other independent brand out there, in terms of how they position themselves, communicate with the press, and do business, it's hard to imagine 2 corporate cultures that could be any more similar (and hence easy to integrate if even "unofficially").  

I know, it's a crazy idea...

What if...

The Hayek Family Ceded Control of the Swatch Group 

While the sky isn't necessarily falling, Swatch Group has not enjoyed the most "amazing" years recently. Moreover, as it is a publicly traded company/group of companies, it would seem that a leadership position in one of the "jewels" of the group seems to be predicated on a DNA Olympics of sorts, in which being born with a last name that starts with H and ends with K appears to be the surest path to running one of the world's 10 most important brands (Breguet, Blancpain). While Omega has a CEO swimming in a different genetic pool, Blancpain and Breguet were both being run by Hayek the Even Younger. I have never met Marc Hayek, but from all I've heard he's a perfectly nice guy and as far as I can tell, he did not crash Blancpain (in charge since 2002) or Breguet (in charge since 2010) during his stewardship of both brands. Which begs the question - why now? As there do not appear to have been any significant seismic shifts (either positive or negative) why now? Official news teased its way out initially on the 12th, and in depth on Friday that  Lionel a Marca would be taking the helm from Marc Hayek, who would be remaining as "President" of Breguet.  

There does seem to be a "Dear Leader" approach to succession plans within the group. Could this mean that Hayek the Even Younger is about to be kicked upstairs and take the big wheel? As there has been no clear or obvious attempts to develop any significant leaders within the group who are not named Hayek to take over some day, my Summer Daydream leads me to wonder if this is no daydream at all and Marc Hayek is about to be promoted again.

What if...

Swatch Group Returned to BaselWorld

In what would be perhaps the most "Baller" move ever, Swatch Group agrees to come back to BaselWorld, but only if they take a partial ownership in the fair and a few board seats at MCH. In some ways they might have already shown some of their cards. They had planned to bring three or so of their less "well-heeled" brands to Las Vegas (which if we're being honest, is a watch show that should be put out of its, and our collective misery). Now with the Delta variant spreading COVID faster than swinging couples spread syphilis, gonorrhea and unplanned pregnancies at Plato's Retreat circa 1976, it now seems unlikely that this will happen as Nevada is an exceedingly "Hot" location, and I'm not talking about the gambling, legal prostitution and all you can eat buffets. Several brands have already reversed course and are not going to be attending. So whether or not the three ships of the mighty Swatch regatta will dock in Sin City remains to be seen, but despite the power of my Summer Daydream, I tend to think maybe not.

Talk Like A Real Watch Pro!

As a public service, I thought I'd take a few minutes and share some of the vernacular that gets bandied around the watch world and particularly at BaselWorld, the SIHH and other venues.

"Nobody likes to hear that their baby is ugly."
Translation?  When you are asked - "What do you think of our novelties?"  You are really being asked - "Could you please offer an affirmation that this watch is great?"

"I'mGonna'stan"
A fictional country that is more a place of the imagination than an actual reality.  I'mGonna'stan is a magical place where everything will happen soon, like tomorrow, and tomorrow never arrives.  

"Pick Your Poison"
Translation - you're screwed either way, and I don't really care.

"My friend"
Translation - You fucking asshole.

"You're just like the Tin-Man"
Translation - You've got no heart.  Usually reserved for sales managers just before they are "freed up to pursue new professional opportunities".

"We don't cover brands like that"
Translation - Pay me, and then maybe we'll cover you.

"We're a small, independent brand and can't afford advertising"
Translation - My best friend's spouse works for another media outlet and we already pay them.  We're not going to pay you now, or ever, but you should still make time to cover us because, you never know ; )

"We don't make any decisions regarding marketing, sales or advertising during (insert BaselWorld, SIHH, JCK, etc.), but shoot me an email in a few weeks and we can follow-up then."
Translation - Of course we make decisions at BaselWorld, SIHH, JCK, etc., we just have no desire to listen to, consider or entertain any proposal that you might be offering.  But!  Here's a nice paper tote bag and an outlandishly heavy catalog (filled with poor spelling and grammatical errors)!  Thanks for stopping by!

The Sound You Hear...

Is the sound of shit hitting the fan....globally.
Phil Devos - Elizabethtown (as played by Alec Baldwin)

Courtesy of the FH

April is in the books, and it was a bit of a turd.  Swiss watch exports continue to slide in a southern direction.  What seems clear is that, most likely, exports are going to continue to slide steadily towards zero.  We have already seen the initial bump (which was not really much of a bump at all) from the SIHH and BaselWorld.  

In terms of retail here in North America, we are currently in the second best sweet spot for male watch purchasing - "Dads and Grads" with high school and college graduations and Fathers Day taking place.  And the numbers for April in the US reflect an increase in watches coming in, so that perhaps that could be viewed as a bright spot, except...

The anecdotal evidence from out in the field is that traditional retail sales are still pretty flat.  But also curious to relate?  Outlets that offer "gently used" watches are growing at a fairly rapid pace.  More and more brands are turning to blockchain verification systems for pre-owned (which in many instances really means grey-market, with the "previous owner" being the brand itself), and this, in turn, ensures that resale prices continue to drop.  

We shall see what May has to offer, and let's hope the overall export numbers don't continue to dip.  But what this continued slide really reveals?  The lessons of the 70s, 2008 and the past few years seem to still not resonate with the shot callers in several brands.

The Incredible Shrinking Fair

So news has filtered its way to the North Shore, and if the rather loud whispers are to be believed, it would seem that BaselWorld will be contracting once again.  Hall 2 will be closed and for all intents and purposes, the entire fair will all be in Hall 1 in 2019.

Now for many of us who had to race back and forth between Hall 1 and Hall 2 it meant often being late, and running a very real risk of contracting second-hand lung cancer as we passed through the wall of nervous sales reps and indolent influencers doing their level best to boost tobacco sales by 23% every BaselWeek.  For us, this is not such a bad piece of news.  And if I am being very honest (if unkind) the atmosphere and "decor" of Hall 2 was often more reminiscent of the Jackson, TN Greyhound bus station than of a luxury destination -

Courtesy of roadarch.com

Having gotten off the bus at 11:45 at night at this very station, I can tell you that, well... it's pretty depressing.  

When I worked for DOXA, Hall 2 (somewhat in the right armpit of the building) was where we were located.  The advantage was that the sausage stand was a mere 45 second walk away, the disadvantages?  Too many to count.  When you are in a shitty location, people are more likely to miss their appointments, and not make any effort to reach out for a "make up".  As a rule, nobody goes to Hall 2 unless they have a reason, because the sausage stand has moved across the street.  It just isn't sexy.

And for the fair organizers?  One less building means fewer security guards to pay, lower power bills, etc.  Logistically?  Smoother, easier to deal with.  

In terms of public perception?  Not so good.  Over the last few years we have seen the fair shrink from four halls, now down to one.  The number of attendees (journalists, fans, and retailers) has drastically reduced has well.  And more and more brands have been looking for "alternative" accommodations by renting out cafes, restaurants, shops, even houses rather than drop the cash on space in any of the halls.  And my suspicion is that the powers that be might try to "adjust" pricing to reflect the "exclusivity" of being in Hall 1.  So if you were a brand that was saving some pennies by being in Hall 2, you will be paying Hall 1 prices, or you will be looking for something different.  The question then becomes, will Hall 1 be able to accommodate everyone who wants space?  Or potentially more worrisome, will the potential uptick in price encourage some of the potential tenants to skip the whole thing altogether, leaving a look and feel like a dead shopping mall?

Courtesy of Architectural Afterlife

Let us hope that the new regime in charge of organizing this shin-dig will view it as an opportunity for rebirth and reinvention.  And more than anything else, let's hope they fill the halls and support the brands, the journalists and the retailers - because that will be the true measure of a successful BaselWorld fair.

 

Repeat - The Sunk Cost Trap

This originally ran over a year ago, but following BaselWorld and the noticeably reduced attendance of brands, retailers and journalists, it's a topic that could stand to be aired out again.  Because this year both wealthy and modest brands were willing to break the habit of a lifetime and skip BaselWorld.  And what it underscored was the reality that not only is the business changing, but after several years of financial (and emotional) losses, some shot-callers had finally accepted that they had to keep their hearts and their wallets in separate locations.  Barry Hearn would be proud ; )

What Barry Hearn Could Teach the Watch Industry - 3

3.     Make sure your heart and wallet stay in a different place

http://www.tempusfugit.watch/2016/01/what-barry-hearn-could-teach-watch.html?m=0

Which brings us back to today's repeat:

The Sunk Cost Trap

I think we have all experienced this in one way or another throughout our lives.  For those of you not familiar, the Sunk Cost Trap is the tendency of normal, sane people to foolishly and (if we're being honest) irrationally follow a plan that is clearly not succeeding in its expected outcome.  

Why?

Well, because we feel that we have "SUNK" too much time, and or money into the exercise and we further feel that all of that time and money will be wasted if we changed course. 

Sound familiar?

The Sunk Cost Trap explains why we keep books that we'll never read, and clothes that we've never worn.

The Sunk Cost Trap explains why some brands continue to "sink" hundreds of thousands of dollars into failing partnerships, celebrity ambassadors and the on again, off again retention of the same PR firm that tends to get signed for a year, then replaced the next year, only to be signed again the year after that.  It's a bit like the Olympics or the World Cup, except that it's every two years instead of four.  Why?  Because they've sunk too much money into it now to walk away.

The Sunk Cost Trap explains why blogs and magazines will continue to keep a brand's ads running even though the brand has not paid for an extended period of time.  This is two-fold:
1.  Time spent and money not received
2.  Fear that walking away will ensure that the  brand will never advertise with them again - which is pretty silly when you consider that they are giving the brand free advertising already and not getting paid.  What exactly is it that they are afraid of losing?

The Sunk Cost Trap explains why someone who really only wants one nice watch will buy several discounted through the grey market assuming and hoping that the value of those watches will somehow magically increase in the not-too-long term so that they will be able to flip those watches and have a nice enough profit to then afford that one nice one.  Which never happens because - you guessed it - they are then trapped by the notion that if they sell the watches they bought on the grey market they will be losing money.  Which, of course, they will.  So they hang onto the not-so-loved watches in the hope that things will change.  

The Sunk Cost Trap explains why a retailer who continually hoses the brand manager by not paying their memo account when they actually sell something will not be confronted by the brand manager.  The brand manager has sunk too much time and too much money into the partnership, and even though they often wait a ridiculously long period of time to get paid (making several expensive trips to the retailer to count the safe and prove to them that, in fact, they have sold the watches and need to pay), this "partnership" will live on.  Often without the brand manager getting paid, and inevitably seeking new professional opportunities.

The Sunk Cost Trap explains why an honest retail  partner will get shafted by a brand who will not provide them with a limited edition watch to sell to their client (at full price) because they want to try to sell it at their own boutique.  Even though they do not have anyone who wants to buy it.  But the fear of having had it, and not selling it?

You get the idea.

There Was Shrinkage!

shamelessly borrowed from the world-wide infoweb

Yes, BaselWorld is officially shrinking this year.  And given the wailing, wringing of hands and rending of garments from some of my more well-heeled colleagues in the Fourth and Fifth Estate, you'd think we were in end times.  Clearly flying coach and staying in an Air B&B is not a pleasant reality after so many previously well-funded trips ; )  

Leaving Las Vegas

Now in the interest of transparency I will confide with you that I have not attended the annual watch and jewelry-cum frat party that is the twin shows put up by JCK and Couture since 2012.  And there is a reason.  The two shows were not well organized, they were at opposite ends of the strip, requiring a lot of patience, missed shuttles and inevitable taxi fares back and forth.  Things have in some ways improved, but in others fallen back to their earlier state.  

I have only the feedback of brands, writers and jewelers to go on, but the early returns are not exactly rosy.  Consider that Friday through Sunday, so if you haven't hit your targets in those few days?  You're kind of stuffed.

More and more brands are giving Las Vegas a miss, as are retailers.  A few brands, convinced that they are "outsmarting" the system will stay at a "Rat Pack" era hotel and set up "private meetings", which inevitably don't pan out.  Why?  Imagine you are attending these two shows.  It's a big enough pain to drag your ass from one end of the strip tot he other, let alone go "off road" for an appointment that may (and then again, may not) happen.  All too often the brand will decide that the first two days didn't pan out, so they blow off their remaining appointments and hit the casinos.  Yes, it's happened before and will probably continue to happen.

If you are the jeweler/store buyer you will already have determined exactly who you want to see.  You will (if you are doing your job) already have done your homework so that you will be somewhat ready.  The notion that potential customers will magically "discover" your brand is a foolish hope.  The highlight of the trip will most likely be a night out or shopping at the outlet mall.

To be very clear, the slow deterioration of the Las Vegas shows is endemic to the watch industry as a whole.  These shows still serve serve as a very valuable resource for jewelry.  But as for watches, it might be time for a different sort of show.

A Repeat on Hot Air in I'mgonastan

As it is BaselWorld season, and we all brace ourselves to digest Las Vegas "all you can eat" sized portions of codswallup regarding the great "what ifs" of watch sales and marketing (i.e. bullshit), this seems like a good one to air out again -

The Other Watch Making Center - I'mgonnastan

I'mgonnastan is a wonderful place where everything happens in the future.  Which means that nothing really has to be demonstrated or proven today.  In I'mgonnastan, you are not really required to show facts, figures, sample pieces or even schematics.  Because in I'mgonnastan the future never really has to be realized.

I'mgonnastan is that place that is frequently referenced during BaselWorld, JCK and just about every sales call that the eager and earnest sales manager makes.  Every year I get a few calls from people working in I'mgonnastan asking for feedback, insight and advice.  This same pattern will repeat itself each year as the person calling from I'mgonnastan either bounces to yet another brand or region.

That hare-brained marketing plan that commits hundreds of thousands of dollars to a partnership that is already dead?  That was cooked up by the crack team in the I'mgonnastan home office.  True, sales figures have slumped so while spending all of that money on Top Chef Zug might have seemed foolish, all of those people who got laid off shouldn't worry, because they're gonna' bring you back just as soon as things get better!

For brands based in I'mgonnastan, the reason why they aren't working to establish new markets is because they're HUGE in Mongolia!

If you are particularly lucky, you will be invited by a brand to an event in I'mgonnastan where you are bored for 2 hours, fed rubber chicken, shown 3 watches that you cannot report on for 3 months, and then wonder what the point was.

Because it's all in the future!  The future is boundless, and anything is possible!

And the crisis that the Swiss industry is in?  Born and raised in I'mgonnastan.

And yes, all of our lives are touched by the hard working people of I'mgonnastan.  I've also noticed that my bank will not accept any of the checks I've received from clients who have accounts with the Fifth National Bank of I'mgonnastan, so perhaps it is time to stop doing business there.

The Other Watch Making Center - I'mgonnastan

I'mgonnastan is a wonderful place where everything happens in the future.  Which means that nothing really has to be demonstrated or proven today.  In I'mgonnastan, you are not really required to show facts, figures, sample pieces or even schematics.  Because in I'mgonnastan the future never really has to be realized.

I'mgonnastan is that place that is frequently referenced during BaselWorld, JCK and just about every sales call that the eager and earnest sales manager makes.  Every year I get a few calls from people working in I'mgonnastan asking for feedback, insight and advice.  This same pattern will repeat itself each year as the person calling from I'mgonnastan either bounces to yet another brand or region.

That hare-brained marketing plan that commits hundreds of thousands of dollars to a partnership that is already dead?  That was cooked up by the crack team in the I'mgonnastan home office.  True, sales figures have slumped so while spending all of that money on Top Chef Zug might have seemed foolish, all of those people who got laid off shouldn't worry, because they're gonna' bring you back just as soon as things get better!

For brands based in I'mgonnastan, the reason why they aren't working to establish new markets is because they're HUGE in Mongolia.

If you are particularly lucky, you will be invited by a brand to an event in I'mgonnastan where you are bored for 2 hours, fed rubber chicken, shown 3 watches that you cannot report on for 3 months, and then wonder what the point was.

Because it's all in the future!  The future is boundless, and anything is possible!

And the crisis that the Swiss industry is in?  Born and raised in I'mgonnastan.

And yes, all of our lives are touched by the hard working people of I'mgonnastan.  I've also noticed that my bank will not accept any of the checks I've received from clients who have accounts with the Fifth National Bank of I'mgonnastan, so perhaps it is time to stop doing business there.

The Shit Just Got REAL-ER

At first I thought about using a smaller size image so that the graph would be less blurry, but if I am honest - as honest as those calling the shots in some of the watch brands should be - I think the blurriness underscores their unwillingness to accept and start adapting to the reality of their situation.

Courtesy of the FH

My honest feeling is, sorry to say, we have still not reached the bottom.

It's now REALLY TIME to face some uncomfortable, but very real facts of life:

1.  Most purchase decisions for retailers have already been made.  A few might be squeezed out of JCK or other regional trade shows, but consider what attendance at JCK really costs - that being dollars for the booth / suite, dollars for entertaining, dollars for per diem for your staff, rental car/taxi cabs, airfare, etc.  Now do the math and consider how many dollars of watch orders you will need to write - AND REALIZE in order to just break even?  And yes, that goes for London, Munich and every other regional show.  

2.  Brands are now flailing, dumping millions of dollars into the sports partnerships, random (albeit popular with the non-watch buying public) partnerships such as DJs and music festivals hoping that something miraculous is going to happen.  This does not show any sort of visionary level marketing brio.  It shows a panicked marketing/PR team who have to spend a set amount of money, and truthfully don't know whether to bet on red or black.  Do celebrity endorsements work any more at the level that they once did?  It is becoming more and more clear that they probably don't, and it  continues to be George Clooney in Up in the Air that rings true:

Ryan Bingham: You know why kids love athletes? 

Bob: Because they screw lingerie models. 

Ryan Bingham: No, that's why we love athletes. Kids love them because they follow their dreams.

And when we get down to the brass tacks of publicity and PR, that is really what is going on.  The brand CEO / PR Manager has a boner for soccer, for celebrities for fame by association.

Several brands are most likely going to be laying off additional employees this year, it is beginning to appear to be inevitable.  Sponsoring a yacht, a car rally, a golf pro is not going to increase your sales and it will not save potential job losses.  Your laid off employees will not feel any sort of pride that their former company's logo is on the sail of a yacht when they are down at the unemployment office. At this point, brands would be better served hanging on to some of that "glitter money" and invest in some umbrellas because there are months' of rainy days ahead.


3.  Retailers are tired of all the bullshit.  They are tired of the "force feeding" of additional product that they have not ordered piling up on top of the earlier orders that they did not want and still can not sell.  The brands have overpopulated their own ecosystems and they have nobody to blame but themselves.

One retail store owner has made it clear to even the mighty Richemont and LVMH - No more watches come into my store until I ASK FOR THEM, PERIOD.



So a shakeout is coming, but this one is looking as if it could be even nastier than other recent  downturns.  SWATCH, Richemont and LVMH will no doubt survive.  But this current situation is not unlike my personal brush with necrotizing fasciitis back in 1999.  The surgeon came into the room and traced a map around the infected area of my right leg.  And he said without much emotion that if the "border got crossed", they would be operating right away.  Nothing like the thought of losing a limb to set your priorities straight.  Let's see if the big three are ready to make the changes necessary to avoid amputation of some of their brands, subsidiaries and most importantly, staff.

What MONEYBALL Could Teach the Watch Industry

As we swing into the next phase of the year, JCK beckons.  Several SWATCH loyalists were cut loose during BaselWorld, and those still hunting for brands to represent will be prowling like would be pimps at the Transit Authority.

A few brands have made good decisions and are trying new things - but for too many it's the same thing, again and again, and then shock and dismay when the get the same poor result.

To quote Michael Lewis in MONEYBALL -

"The inability to envision a certain kind of person doing a certain kind of thing because you've never seen someone who looks like him do it before is not just a vice.  It's a luxury.  What begins as a failure of the imagination ends as a market inefficiency; when you rule out an entire class of people from doing a job simply by their appearance, you are less likely to find the best person for the job."

Lather, rinse, repeat.

Glycine-a-Thon! The Airman AIRFIGHTER

So with everyone and their dog from the watch industry on their way to Las Vegas, there isn't a lot of news coming out.  So it is a nice time to share some favorites from Glycine.

Courtesy of Glycine

This is the Airman "AIRFIGHTER"

Priming the Pump for the Hunger Games

And with the holidays over, we take a collective breath and gird our loins for the sprint towards July.  SIHH is now underway, in two more months many of us will fly "cattle class" with itineraries for Zurich and destinations south east for BaselWorld.  And then for those of us in North America we will enjoy Memorial Day, then head off to Las Vegas for the JCK show.

Each year at BaselWorld I learn a lot.  And if I am really, really honest I am not really learning so much about the industry or the new watches that will be revealed.  What I am really learning about is human nature.  While we are all excited about the new watches, there is a whole other layer of reality that is going on.  

Brands are scrambling for customers.  Like ducks on a pond everything looks nice, calm and controlled on the surface.  Of course, if you could see underneath the surface you would see the feet going a mile a minute.  Brand managers and sales representatives are being told that if they can't bring in 10 new potential customers for appointments they should cancel their travel plans - and the subtext of that is that they might want to freshen up their resumes.  

Distributors are out on the prowl, not unlike the predators who stalk the Port Authority of New York in search of the next big thing.  

And BaselWorld's version of "Rick's Café Américain" is the lobby of the Ramada.  This is where perhaps the majority of real deals are being made.  If you want to know how a brand is really doing, and you see one of the senior members engaged in lengthy discussions in the lobby of the Ramada you can conclude that either things aren't so good and they need an investment, or that a pretty big deal is about to go down that needs to be kept "out of the booth".

The retail partners, and "partners to be" brace themselves for a week of "speed dating".  And this is not just about getting new brands, it is also in many ways a week of "couple's therapy".  Retailers are pissed off at brands for a multitude of reasons.  And this is one of the funnier parts of the dynamic.  The retailer will essentially read the brand the "riot act" over a litany of failings - "You've opened too many doors", "you don't advertise enough", "you're not giving me enough product", "you're giving me too much product", "you don't love me anymore".  Now what the brand is feeling is pretty similar - "you don't really push the product", "you discount the product beyond belief", "you dump product on Ebay".  And one that is near and dear to my heart - "you don't pay your f&*^ing invoice even after you've sold the watch!"  But the sharp brand manager will keep these feelings to themselves, they will take the abuse from the retail partner and then if they feel it is a losing proposition, they will quietly "close the door" (i.e. end the retailer's agreement).

As with any truly good drama, there will be winners, losers, heroes and villains.

And like I said at the start - there will be some new watches ; )

The Watch Industry and the Transfer Window - Hanhart

Alas it seems as if the rumors swirling around Hanhart appear to be true.  Thomas Morf has left Hanhart and the brand is now being led by Ronald Grob who is acting as the Interim CEO.  Again, while this rumor has been in motion for quite some time, I wanted to be sure of the details, and this morning received word from the Head of Communication & PR for the Gaydoul Group, which is the holding company that owns the majority shares of Hanhart.

So with the absence of Hanhart at this year's BaselWorld, and closer to home most likely not attending SWISS Watch JCK in Las Vegas in June (anyone with more definitive info on that please feel free to let me know!), it becomes a question as to how Hanhart will move forward from here.  On the one hand it would seem that at least one key person remains on board - Klaus Eble, a 40 year Hanhart veteran will be responsible for the production side.  But to be very honest, I am not sure if things really can be the same.  In the past, Hanhart had some interesting watches, and a rich (if not well publicized) history.  I think of it a lot like Wonka's chocolate factory.  It was there, but until Willy Wonka revealed himself, and the factory, it hadn't really come to life.

Enter Thomas Morf in 2010 and suddenly there was interest, there were things to talk about!  New products started to appear, and slowly but surely, more and more people became aware of Hanhart.  Two of the most anticipated releases are yet to arrive - the Desert Pilot and the Racemaster.  I guess for me, it just seems somehow unfinished.  My sincere hope is that Hanhart, and I guess more appropriately the Gaydoul Group will find a way to get things settled, and hopefully not completely lose the momentum gained in the past 24 months.  Thomas Morf was a champion of the brand, and that kind of enthusiasm, vision and charisma you don't always find in one person.

I myself do not want to see Hanhart disappear, and by that, I mean return to the quite, anonymous little brand that it was not so long ago.  I know and accept that I am a hopeless romantic, and my sincere hope is that there is at least one more "twist in the tale" so that for those of us Hanhart fans out there, there will be a happy ending.

It's hard not to be romantic about watches.

Raymond Weil at SWISS Watch, Las Vegas

One of the most enjoyable visits at JCK was with the nice folks at Raymond Weil.  

I have never, EVER seen such a busy room!  Everybody seems to want these watches.

And the best thing about Raymond Weil, is that there's something for everyone.  For the men and for the ladies...rugged and sporty, classic and sophisticated - Raymond Weil seems to have it covered.

Quartz, and self-winding mechanicals!  And perhaps one of the nicest things about Raymond Weil - it's still a family affair, with three generations all pulling in the same direction.

There is more to come on Raymond Weil - so stay tuned!

15 Days with the Glycine Airman Base 22 MLV

The nice folks at Glycine were good enough to send the Glycine Airman Base 22 MLV.

15 days with the Glycine Airman Base 22 MLV starts now - stay tuned!

A Dark Night in Las Vegas

This is the Dark Night from Girard Perregaux - and yes, I got to lay eyes on it in person - it is pretty swell!  And extremely limited - only 25 pieces, so no time-wasters!  And my understanding - it is just for the US market.


Courtesy of Girard-Perregaux

For those of you "spec. nerds" out there, here are the details:

WW.TC DARK NIGHT


TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS

Black ceramic case with rubber coated crowns and push-buttons

Diameter: 43 mm
Sapphire crystal
Tinted sapphire case-back secured by 6 screws
Water resistance: 10 ATM
Girard-Perregaux movement GP03387
Mechanical with automatic winding
Calibre: 13’’’
Frequency: 28,800 Vib/h (4 Hz)

Jewels: 63
Power reserve: minimum 46 hours

Functions: Hour, minute, small seconds, date, fly-back chronograph,
world time with day/night indicator

Rubber strap with safety folding buckle

Limited and numbered edition of 25 pieces only

www.girard-perregaux.com

Las Vegas

In Las Vegas today/tomorrow - stand by for nearly live reporting!

Point of clarification for those of you who "wish you could be here" - the two main shows are divided by nearly 3 miles at opposite ends of the "strip".  You regular readers know that I prefer to walk, but with the temperature up above 100 degrees, I think walking will be at a minimum.

Stay tuned, should be a "newsy" day!