Dear Breitling - Shop Your Closet!

There are a GAZILLION "Sleeping Beauty" brands out there. And seeing as Breitling just "whipped it out" to buy an (let's be honest) essentially dormant brand, let's take a moment and consider what US $69 million could have been directed towards given the presence of an  already existing red-headed step-child living somewhat ignominiously under Breitling's roof. I speak, gentle reader. of Kelek. 

Formerly located just around the corner from Eberhard in La Chaux-de-Fonds, it merged / was purchased by Breitling in 1997. Prior to this time there had been a few iterations, but the short-form is that Kelek focused on mechanical movements and had worked with Dubois-Dépraz. It is also worth noting that in the 90s, Kelek was one of the largest manufacturers of automatic, mechanical chronographs. It is also curious to note that Kelek developed a working relationship with one Seiko (Hattori at the time), thus perhaps foreshadowing the great Tag Heuer 1887 movement fiasco of 2009 ; )

In short? For the price of, well, ZERO, the brain trust in Grenchen could have directed time, effort and a much smaller amount of cash towards rebuilding and relaunching something that would only be on life-support for a short period of time, and out of the "recovery room" even faster. But is also, admittedly, not the stuff of nocturnal emissions (that's wet dream to you) from watch nerds swearing up and down that they would buy a Universal Geneve if it were ever revived. These folks are, by and large, the horological equivalent of the now infamous (and largely fictitious) 400 pound guy "hacking a political party" from his bed. Hypothetically they exist, but it begs the question as to why the supply of vintage Universal Geneve watches are not exactly thin on the ground. 

Okay, that's not fair. I am sure that there are some folks out there, but the majority of watch buyers with ready cash listening to Beyonce name drop AP and SPENDING said cash are not borderline or current AARP members with purchasing decision-making impulses driven by nostalgic erections.

Just saying.

So back to the earlier question - when you have a viable brand already in your house, why go out shopping for something that costs you a WHOLE LOT more money than you really need (or likely should want) to spend? A lot of it is sex appeal - be it real or (I suspect in this case) presumed. But a lot of it comes back to what that other great commentator on the watch business opined in Moneyball, fear of looking bad and an inability to objectively and rationally asses value (both perceived and real) -

“There was but one question he left unasked, and it vibrated between his lines: if gross miscalculations of a person's value could occur on a baseball field, before a live audience of thirty thousand, and a television audience of millions more, what did that say about the measurement of performance in other lines of work? If professional baseball players could be over- or under valued, who couldn't?”
― Michael Lewis, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game

What is known is that Kelek would have likely made for a fantastic Oakland A. It was, and continues to be a potentially wildly successful brand if the owner / operator would spend one one-hundredth of the time, energy, and money that Mr. Kerns and Breitling are ready to hurl at UG. But then again, when you consider floating an idea like Kelek, you are flying in the face of the marketing logic of a brand that has been worshiping at the altar of stardom (and its reflective glow) for many years. So we'll let Moneyball summarize why activating Kelek would have made a HELL of a lot more sense than spending the kind of money that usually isn't exchanged without the aid of a getaway car.

“The inability to envision a certain kind of person doing a certain kind of thing because you've never seen someone who looks like him do it before is not just a vice. It's a luxury. What begins as a failure of the imagination ends as a market inefficiency: when you rule out an entire class of people from doing a job simply by their appearance, you are less likely to find the best person for the job.”
― Michael Lewis, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game

And yes, it is a metaphor. The "certain kind of person" is a certain kind of brand - in this instance Kelek ; )

What I've Learned - The Summer Vacation Edition

Have you ever had a few weeks of experiences that really make you question the sanity of the people you are dealing with?  Well, gentle reader, this past fortnight has been a trip!  So as life is a journey with several "teaching opportunities" along the way (not unlike Howard Johnson's along the interstates of 1970's North America) I thought I'd take this opportunity to offer a summer bonus - a double-scoop serving of "What I've Learned". 

1.  You only get to be the Prom Queen once

It's exciting to feel popular, to feel like everyone thinks you're the greatest. And the owners and managers of watch brands are just as susceptible to fits of ego as any teenager. It is exciting when the quarterback or the captain of the cheerleading squad asks you out. It's important to understand that one date (even to the Homecoming dance, with dinner at Sizzler and a limo), does not a relationship make. 

More simply put, the doors of success tend (by design) to swing both ways. It's great when you land front and center in a big-time watch media outlet.  And this tends to lend the impression that your champagne wishes and caviar dreams are all about to come true. The fact of the matter is, wonderful brand though you may be, the only reason you were noticed by a big-time outlet is because they found you through a smaller one. Not unlike how footballers get discovered and moved along the ranks from non-conference Sunday park players, to the Premiership. The only difference is that your brand is not a world class striker dating a Spice Girl. Believe it or not, as you are not a huge and well-established brand, and you are not (despite what you might think about yourself) a unicorn, you are likely to have a good pop out of your turn in the spotlight, but unless that big, sexy outlet keeps writing about you, you will be right back where you started from (hopefully a little richer, and a little wiser from the experience).  Or to quote that other great commentator on the watch business, Barry Hearn -

"The day you think you're the 'nuts', is the day you're disappearing down the toilet. Complacency in business is a killer. When you think you've made it, that's the beginning of the end. You have to drive yourself every day, every hour to be better."

2.  Nobody Remembers James "Buster" Douglas, but they should.

Permit me to take you back in time to 1990. I was finishing my last year at the U, getting ready to graduate, and I had finally made it onto the best football club in the city - NFZFC. I had played for a few years without much success in the city leagues. I was known, the opinion around the leagues was that I could play a bit, but I wasn't truly a "baller". That year I scored a boatload of goals, and NFZFC won the title outright. I had arrived after a long and circuitous route. But that's the funny thing about journeymen, they tend to surprise you when you least expect it, and the reason why they can do it is because the big swinging dicks fall prey to what the author of Moneyball warned against -

“The inability to envision a certain kind of person doing a certain kind of thing because you've never seen someone who looks like him do it before is not just a vice. It's a luxury. What begins as a failure of the imagination ends as a market inefficiency: when you rule out an entire class of people from doing a job simply by their appearance, you are less likely to find the best person for the job.” 
― Michael Lewis, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game

I received a communication from a brand owner recently that underscored this very backward thinking.  He essentially told me that his brand would only be sending their English language press releases to outlet X because outlet X had the biggest coverage and fit their perceived demographics as to who would buy their watches. He further said that he had worked with a "PR Professional" and they wanted to "cut down" on the amount of press coverage and focus on only this one outlet.  Now I realize, that I am a bit older and more conventional, but I was always under the impression that the entire goal of PR and marketing was to get your product in front of as many eyes as possible. So I am curious how the "RASPUTIN PR" group convinced the brand owner on such a dip-shit marketing concept. But from my own selfish perspective, it's one less brand that I need to worry about ; )  

But what this brand and their soft-headed pr agency are failing to grasp, is that while Mike Tyson was once the champ, and seemed unbeatable, he was knocked out in the 10th round by someone they didn't rate or respect. In this case, I think the most apt metaphor involves eggs and baskets. If you are a brand, you should want as much coverage as possible. Moreover, you shouldn't tell 99% of the media outlets to go and piss up a rope, because sooner or later, just like Mike Tyson, big sexy Media Outlet X is going to replaced by someone else. Quite possibly someone the brand snubbed before. And suddenly, it's prom night and Brand Y is sitting in the limousine with the corsage for big sexy Media Outlet A, watching as the geeky kid from the math olympics team hops out of his mother's station wagon, and picks up the Prom Queen ; )

Long story short?  It's a relationship business. Relationships take time, and they don't happen overnight. But they can be ruined pretty quickly without too much effort.

What I've Learned - The COVID Holiday Bonus!

It's been a minute since the last one of these, but the latest machinations in Watch Town reminded me that the more things change, there seems a persistent unwillingness to learn from the past.

Fair warning, this is going to get a little "blue", so you might want to send the kids out of the room.

1.  The only difference between a paid sycophant and "sponsored/partner content" is semantics.  

2.  The default position of most brand owners and managers is to "play not to lose" rather than "play to win".  I will refer back to that great treatise on luxury brand mismanagement, Moneyball:

“The inability to envision a certain kind of person doing a certain kind of thing because you've never seen someone who looks like him do it before is not just a vice. It's a luxury. What begins as a failure of the imagination ends as a market inefficiency: when you rule out an entire class of people from doing a job simply by their appearance, you are less likely to find the best person for the job.”
― Michael Lewis, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game 

The Transfer Window is open again, and as it is prime hiring and firing season, and as is often the case, already a few people have been cast into Cuisinart and popped out wearing new jerseys.  And we haven't even gotten to Christmas ; )

Oh, and Citichamp?  I know the guy you need to hire to fix Eterna. Shoot me an email, I won't even charge you a finder's fee ; )

3.  Exclusive Partnership is about as Exclusive as the relationship between a "professional companion" and their regular Thursday night appointment.  The only real difference is that the sex worker will make the client wear a condom.

4.  A stiff dick has no conscience.  Yes watch brand, we were happy to cover you, but that fee you paid was just for that one time.  

The Lincoln Lawyer

Or to quote Mickey Haller as played by Matthew McConaughey in The Lincoln Lawyer:

A.  "I don't get paid, I don't work."

And 

B.  "All you need to know is that we had a deal.  It's time to refill the tank."

I've said it before, and I'll say it again - brands paying for coverage is like lonely people paying for "companionship".  It shows a lack of effort and imagination, and the coverage will only continue if you keep filling up the tank.  Pretty Woman was a movie, not real life.

5.  There is always someone ready to sell you a nickel for a dime.

Happy Holidays!

When the Music Stops - Reality Pays a Visit to Lucerne

Word reached the North Shore offices of Tempus Fugit this AM via Watch Pro and confirmed by some other outlets such as SWI (swissinfo.ch), that mighty Bucherer has told up to 370 loyalists to sling their hooks and take it on the heel and toe.

In the age of COVID-19, this is to be expected. For Bucherer (and let's be honest, nearly every other tourist focused retail store in Lucerne), it is going to be some time before the very, very large groups of Chinese tourists are roaming the city streets, credit cards in hand.



But closer to home, the purchase of Tourneau is probably starting to engender more than just a wee bit of buyer's remorse.  Tourneau, to their credit, have made a half-hearted attempt at online sales.  
But truth be told, a quick browse of the Tourneau website, it is just that, half-hearted. For better or worse, it is no longer a question of whether or not the future of watch retail is online.  The PRESENT of watch retail is online.  In the words of that other great commentator on the watch industry - Billy Beane as played by Brad Pitt in Moneyball -
"Adapt or die."

Summer Repeat: Time to Sack Up - Eterna Can Be Saved

I first dropped this over a year ago, and it's as true today as it was then. City Champ - this is fixable!  But only if you're ready to.  So once again -

Time to Sack Up - Eterna Can Be Saved

In the city of Grenchen, on the train line from Biel/Bienne to Basel, there is a once mighty watch manufacturer that now lies (mostly) dormant.  A beautiful factory and administration building that evokes memories of Willy Wonka's factory.  An owner with enough money to (if they wanted to) not just save the company, but truly resurrect it.  But just like that fictitious confectioner, the building is a shell of its former self.  It would seem that nobody goes in, and nobody comes out.

And for some of us hard-core Eterna fans?  This is frustrating.  In fairness, a very solid sales network has been created by some very talented people who are out there, every day, preaching the gospel of Eterna and the KonTiki.  So a lot of the pieces are already in place.

So a few simple suggestions -

1.  Eliminate everything on the menu except the KonTiki.  Focus on three different versions with the same "guts".  In essence, a single version with three different "flavors".  As any parent will tell you, you never ask a kid what flavor of ice cream they want.  You will be there all day.  Simply ask them - "Do you want ice cream?  Great, we have chocolate, vanilla or strawberry."

Do this for one to two years.  Simply put?  You are guaranteed to sell a lot of this model, and take that time to revamp and slowly introduce new collections.

2.  Find a real turn-around specialist.  Look beyond the hucksters and the confidence men that you have been turning to.  Sorry, I have to call this one like I see it.  The people making the hiring decisions when it comes to the top spot at Eterna keep making some flawed choices.  And once again, I refer to Moneyball:

 “Managers tend to pick a strategy that is the least likely to fail, rather then to pick a strategy that is most efficient," Said Palmer." The pain of looking bad is worse than the gain of making the best move.”
― Michael Lewis, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game 

How many CEOs and "interim" leaders do you need to go through before you maybe look in a different direction?  Stop worrying about making a potentially embarrassing decision, because guess what?  That ship has sailed!  You've made enough bad hiring decisions to last the next ten years.

But there is one guy out there, one person out there uniquely qualified to fix Eterna.  Note that I DID NOT say fix Corum and Eterna.  Let's focus on one problem at a time ; )

There is one person out there who could objectively identify the troubles at Eterna, offer honest analysis without being fearful of keeping everyone happy, and would leave his ego out of the equation.  He is perhaps the most influential person in the Swiss watch industry that you've never heard of, and he and a few of his long-term teammates could not only get their hands around this situation, but chart a course to the sea of success.

Citichamp, if you're reading this and you're ready to sack up and try to right the good-ship Eterna?  Drop me a line!  I won't even charge you a finder's fee ; )

3.  COMMUNICATE!  Silence, in this particular situation?  Not golden.  Stop waiting for the press and fans to come to you - go to them. 

Repeat - Yogi Berra on Brand Management

I originally came out with this just over three years ago.  At that time I was in Malmo, Sweden for the launch of Kronaby.  After a fairly successful launch, followed by a strong BaselWorld 17, and  a BaselWorld 18 that was off the chain (the booth was jam-packed and I saw someone in front of the booth with with a can of grease and a crowbar trying to get more people in), shortly prior to BaselWorld 2019, word leaked out that Kronaby was, in fact, toast.  Now it's funny looking back, because at the time I was somehow thinking that maybe the folks at Kronaby (and let's say that's the four shot-callers and a few key employees that, in hindsight, never should have been anywhere near a watch brand), might be approaching things differently.  Shortly after launch, it began to become clear that, in fact, that was not the case.  Just prior to their first full-on BaselWorld (I'm talking about a week prior) the brain trust in the marketing department thought it made sense to cancel a large chunk of media appointments that had already been booked.  The result, a lot of press took that particular fuck-you at face value and not only didn't bother to re-schedule, but wrote Kronaby out of their collective consciousness.  Ironically, that BaselWorld found all four of the shot-callers hanging out in front of their booth, not unlike used car salesmen prowling the lot, looking for a possible mark.  Curious to relate, the next year was quite good, with people literally spilling out of the booth!  So what happened?  Well, a few things and some that parallel another fairly spectacular fall from grace, Klokers.  And if and when I am asked to deliver a Ted Talk I will endeavor to boil it down to ten minutes or so ; )

But for now, it seems like a good time to re-heat this one!

Yogi Berra on Brand Management

A late night (in Malmo) Face Time call came in waking me from a peaceful slumber.  Clearly I need to figure out some sort of "out of office" message for that when I am out of the country ; )

Worrying that it could be Wendy and there might be something important, I picked up.  At first, relief as it was not Wendy but a fairly senior fellow who works for a company in Switzerland that produces, markets and sells watches.  We had not spoken in 11 months and he was unaware that I had moved to Salem, MA and was no longer in California (and clearly he did not know I was in Sweden).  This turned into the semi-annual call where X (no names, so don't ask!) was on his latest talent hunt.  It generally starts out with some pleasantries:

X:  "How's Mary?"
Me: "Who is Mary?"
X:  "Your wife!"
Me:  "Well, that's news to me as I've been calling her Wendy since 1992."

So let's just say that X's memory is not razor-sharp, and therefore it is safe to say, he's not so good on every detail ; )

X:  "We're looking for a brand manager for  (no names).  Any suggestions?"
Me:  "What happened to (no names)?  You were so sure they were perfect."
X:  "Well, it turns out that (no names) was not a good manager."

And then X split open like an over-stuffed piñata.  And out it flowed.  X shared all of the problems and I listened.  And to quote that other great commentator on the luxury industry, Yogi Berra:

It's like deja-vu, all over again.
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/y/yogi_berra.html

"It's like de-javu, all over again."

You see, X and I have a very similar conversation approximately every 18 months.  It is not always exactly the same date, but generally tends to fall between the close of the year and JCK.
And every 18 months I tend to ask the same thing:
"Why do you keep hiring the same type of person and expect different results?"
Long time readers will know that Moneyball is my default reference, and I even gave a copy to X as a gift a year or so back.  I don't think he ever read it and it's pages were probably used to start a fire in his swanky ski chalet.  So I thought I would dumb it down in the hopes that he might get it this time.  So without further delay, here's some hiring advice from Yogi Berra himself -

"We made too many wrong mistakes"
As an English teacher, I realize that this sentence makes no sense.  But look a little deeper and you will find a kernel of wisdom.  Essentially it reminds me of the anxiety and fear of looking foolish that compels recruiters, hiring managers and even CEOs to go with the same type of candidate again and again.  Simply put, the belief when hiring a brand manager in North America (I honestly can't speak to the other countries) is that they (usually he) must be a sales person.  Now, in and of itself this is good because, you know, you need to sell watches.  But there are several other elements that oftentimes get overlooked:
Management/coaching/mentoring.  Sales is, by its very nature, a fairly solitary pursuit.  While sales people get managed, it is very seldom that they have been called upon to manage the diverse group of personalities that typically make up a brand's office.
PR/Marketing/Media.  Again, frequently a lack of understanding of ROI vs. money actually spent.  If brand managers had a better understanding of this, then certain magazines and "influencers" would probably stop attending BaselWorld as the gravy train would clearly be shut down.  In addition, certain brands would not be the watch world equivalent of "Christmas/Easters" (i.e. people who only go to church two days a year).  Some of us call them Basel/Vegas.  You will only hear from these folks just prior to these two events.
Customer Service. Again, dealing with angry customers is an alien experience for a lot of these folks.

There are some people who, if they don't already know, you can't tell 'em.
Simply put, X, and plenty of other shot-callers in the industry just can't bring themselves to believe that there might be a different way to approach things.  As a friend of mine who works behind the scenes as a very in-demand consultant in Switzerland put it -
"these guys at Richemont, Swatch, and a lot of the others?  They're like trains running on the tracks.  They only move one way, and that's because the 'station master' (i.e. senior management) is following the same schedule they always have.  Which works great in normal times, but quite differently in a heavy snow storm".  And that snow storm started a few years ago and is still screwing up traffic ; )  Perhaps it is time to invest in an alternative "vehicle"?
Now X will probably go out and hire another big group loyalist who is expecting a base salary of 6 figures, business class travel, and a very deep marketing budget.

X:  "But they worked for Cartier for 20 years!"
Me: "So they are still with Cartier?"
X:  "No, but they were there from 92 - 2012."
Me: "So, essentially you are telling me that they have not worked for 4 - 5 years?"

At the risk of sounding mean, there is usually a reason why these people are available.

Nobody goes there anymore.  It's too crowded.
At the risk of sounding crass, X has a boner for big name, fancy retail partners.  The logic being that If you are in "so and so's" store in Las Vegas, LA or New York you will have made it big.  Sounds good, but the realities are something very, very different.  Those stores will most likely be MEMO. (Our old friend of the watch retailer meaning the brand provides the watches and waits for them to sell, and then maybe the retail partner will pay for them.  Then again, maybe not.)  So essentially the brand is acting as the bank, as well as the "supplier".  And if you think that is the only expense, consider the travel to visit the retail partner to do the safe count, the money that will be demanded for co-op advertising, the POS collateral materials that the retailer needs.  In other words, a shit-ton of money that the brand will be putting out there without any confirmed sale in sight.  And once the brand is in the store, they are fighting for case space, because frankly there are just too many brands.

So my strong advice for X after a few hours of sleep is this -
If you come to a fork in the road, take it. 
This is a perfect opportunity to consider a different approach.  There are plenty of talented people (some of them are even female) who despite not being solo artist salesmen might have exactly the talents and more importantly, the temperament to steer the Good Ship Watch Brand through the stormy seas of North America.

Or, you can go ahead do the same thing again, hoping for a different outcome -
Even Napoleon had his Watergate.

There are some people who, if they don't already know, you can't tell 'em.
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/y/yogi_berra_2.html

It's like deja-vu, all over again.
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/y/yogi_berra.html

It's like deja-vu, all over again.
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/y/yogi_berra.html

Time to Sack Up - Eterna Can Be Saved

In the city of Grenchen, on the train line from Biel/Bienne to Basel, there is a once mighty watch manufacturer that now lies (mostly) dormant.  A beautiful factory and administration building that evokes memories of Willy Wonka's factory.  An owner with enough money to (if they wanted to) not just save the company, but truly resurrect it.  But just like that fictitious confectioner, the building is a shell of its former self.  It would seem that nobody goes in, and nobody comes out.

And for some of us hard-core Eterna fans?  This is frustrating.  In fairness, a very solid sales network has been created by some very talented people who are out there, every day, preaching the gospel of Eterna and the KonTiki.  So a lot of the pieces are already in place.


So a few simple suggestions -

1.  Eliminate everything on the menu except the KonTiki.  Focus on three different versions with the same "guts".  In essence, a single version with three different "flavors".  As any parent will tell you, you never ask a kid what flavor of ice cream they want.  You will be there all day.  Simply ask them - "Do you want ice cream?  Great, we have chocolate, vanilla or strawberry."

Do this for one to two years.  Simply put?  You are guaranteed to sell a lot of this model, and take that time to revamp and slowly introduce new collections.

2.  Find a real turn-around specialist.  Look beyond the hucksters and the confidence men that you have been turning to.  Sorry, I have to call this one like I see it.  The people making the hiring decisions when it comes to the top spot at Eterna keep making some flawed choices.  And once again, I refer to Moneyball:

 “Managers tend to pick a strategy that is the least likely to fail, rather then to pick a strategy that is most efficient," Said Palmer." The pain of looking bad is worse than the gain of making the best move.”
― Michael Lewis, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game

How many CEOs and "interim" leaders do you need to go through before you maybe look in a different direction?  Stop worrying about making a potentially embarrassing decision, because guess what?  That ship has sailed!  You've made enough bad hiring decisions to last the next ten years.

But there is one guy out there, one person out there uniquely qualified to fix Eterna.  Note that I DID NOT say fix Corum and Eterna.  Let's focus on one problem at a time ; )

There is one person out there who could objectively identify the troubles at Eterna, offer honest analysis without being fearful of keeping everyone happy, and would leave his ego out of the equation.  He is perhaps the most influential person in the Swiss watch industry that you've never heard of, and he and a few of his long-term teammates could not only get their hands around this situation, but chart a course to the sea of success.

Citichamp, if you're reading this and you're ready to sack up and try to right the good-ship Eterna?  Drop me a line!  I won't even charge you a finder's fee ; ) 

3.  COMMUNICATE!  Silence, in this particular situation?  Not golden.  Stop waiting for the press and fans to come to you - go to them.

Yogi Berra on Brand Management

A late night (in Malmo) Face Time call came in waking me from a peaceful slumber.  Clearly I need to figure out some sort of "out of office" message for that when I am out of the country ; )

Worrying that it could be Wendy and there might be something important, I picked up.  At first, relief as it was not Wendy but a fairly senior fellow who works for a company in Switzerland that produces, markets and sells watches.  We had not spoken in 11 months and he was unaware that I had moved to Salem, MA and was no longer in California (and clearly he did not know I was in Sweden).  This turned out the semi-annual call where X (no names, so don't ask!) was on his latest talent hunt.  It generally starts out with some pleasantries:

X:  "How's Mary?"
Me: "Who is Mary?"
X:  "Your wife!"
Me:  "Well, that's news to me as I've been calling her Wendy since 1992."

So let's just say that X is not good on some details ; )

X:  "We're looking for a brand manager for  (no names).  Any suggestions?"
Me:  "What happened to (no names)?  You were so sure they were perfect."
X:  "Well, it turns out that (no names) was not a good manager."

And then X split open like an over-stuffed piñata.  And out it flowed.  X shared all of the problems and I listened.  And to quote that other great commentator on the luxury industry, Yogi Berra:

It's like deja-vu, all over again.
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/y/yogi_berra.html

"It's like de-javu, all over again."

You see, X and I have a very similar conversation approximately every 18 months.  It is not always exactly the same date, but generally tends to fall between the close of the year and JCK.
And every 18 months I tend to ask the same thing:
"Why do you keep hiring the same type of person and expect different results?"
Long time readers will know that Moneyball is my default reference, and I even gave a copy to X as a gift a year or so back.  I don't think he ever read it and it's pages were probably used to start a fire in his swanky ski chalet.  So I thought I would dumb it down in the hopes that he might get it this time.  So without further delay, here's some hiring advice from Yogi Berra himself -

"We made too many wrong mistakes"
As an English teacher, I realize that this sentence makes no sense.  But look a little deeper and you will find a kernel of wisdom.  Essentially it reminds me of the anxiety and fear of looking foolish that compels recruiters, hiring managers and even CEOs to go with the same type of candidate again and again.  Simply put, the belief when hiring a brand manager in North America (I honestly can't speak to the other countries) is that they (usually he) must be a sales person.  Now, in and of itself this is good because, you know, you need to sell watches.  But there are several other elements that oftentimes get overlooked:
Management/coaching/mentoring.  Sales is, by its very nature, a fairly solitary pursuit.  While sales people get managed, it is very seldom that they have been called upon to manage the diverse group of personalities that typically make up a brand's office.
PR/Marketing/Media.  Again, frequently a lack of understanding of ROI vs. money actually spent.  If brand managers had a better understanding of this, then certain magazines and "influencers" would probably stop attending BaselWorld as the gravy train would clearly be shut down.  In addition, certain brands would not be the watch world equivalent of "Christmas/Easters" (i.e. people who only go to church two days a year).  Some of us call them Basel/Vegas.  You will only hear from these folks just prior to these two events.
Customer Service. Again, dealing with angry customers is an alien experience for a lot of these folks.

There are some people who, if they don't already know, you can't tell 'em.
Simply put, X, and plenty of other shot-callers in the industry just can't bring themselves to believe that there might be a different way to approach things.  As a friend of mine who works behind the scenes as a very in-demand consultant in Switzerland put it -
"these guys at Richemont, Swatch, and a lot of the others?  They're like trains running on the tracks.  They only move one way, and that's because the 'station master' (i.e. senior management) is following the same schedule they always have.  Which works great in normal times, but quite differently in a heavy snow storm".  And that snow storm started a few years ago and is still screwing up traffic ; )  Perhaps it is time to invest in an alternative "vehicle"? 
Now X will probably go out and hire another big group loyalist who is expecting a base salary of 6 figures, business class travel, and a very deep marketing budget. 

X:  "But they worked for Cartier for 20 years!" 
Me: "So they are still with Cartier?"
X:  "No, but they were there from 92 - 2012."
Me: "So, essentially you are telling me that they have not worked for 4 - 5 years?"

At the risk of sounding mean, there is usually a reason why these people are available.

Nobody goes there anymore.  It's too crowded.
At the risk of sounding crass, X has a boner for big name, fancy retail partners.  The logic being that If you are in "so and so's" store in Las Vegas, LA or New York you will have made it big.  Sounds good, but the realities are something very, very different.  Those stores will most likely be MEMO. (Our old friend of the watch retailer meaning the brand provides the watches and waits for them to sell, and then maybe the retail partner will pay for them.  Then again, maybe not.)  So essentially the brand is acting as the bank, as well as the "supplier".  And if you think that is the only expense, consider the travel to visit the retail partner to do the safe count, the money that will be demanded for co-op advertising, the POS collateral materials that the retailer needs.  In other words, a shit-ton of money that the brand will be putting out there without any confirmed sale in sight.  And once the brand is in the store, they are fighting for case space, because frankly there are just too many brands.

So my strong advice for X after a few hours of sleep is this -
If you come to a fork in the road, take it.
This is a perfect opportunity to consider a different approach.  There are plenty of talented people (some of them are even female) who despite not being solo artist salesmen might have exactly the talents and more importantly, the temperament to steer the Good Ship Watch Brand through the stormy seas of North America. 

Or, you can go ahead do the same thing again, hoping for a different outcome -
Even Napoleon had his Watergate.

There are some people who, if they don't already know, you can't tell 'em.
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/y/yogi_berra_2.html

It's like deja-vu, all over again.
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/y/yogi_berra.html

It's like deja-vu, all over again.
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/y/yogi_berra.html

The Forecast Calls for Pain

Courtesy of the FH

Pay no attention to the numbers on the graph, everything is fine!

Well, in fairness, according to the folks at the FH, things in some sectors are getting better.  But here in the U S of A?  Per the FH -

On the other hand, the United States recorded one of its worst results of the year after March. 

Maybe, just maybe, it is time to consider that everything that used to work in the past is not working any longer.  Close some retail doors, hold back on stock, set some realistic expectations...

Ironically enough, there are many out there (me included) who do believe that the US is going to emerge in the coming months as one of the leaders and most important markets.  But for that to happen, it might be time to consider some new, or yet unrecognized talent to lead the US efforts for some of the brands that have been flailing.  There is a great deal of talent already in the industry, people who do fantastic work on a daily basis who should be given their opportunity.  Brands are missing out on a fantastic opportunity to not only save their companies, but identify and promote some top notch talent who will help secure not only their survival now, but their long-term success and growth for the years to come.

Or, they can keep doing the same thing and expect a different outcome.

So we'll close with Moneyball again, but this time from the movie rather than the book.  It closely echoes my feeling of what is fundamentally wrong with the decision making paradigm of the watch industry.  The absolute terror of making a mistake and looking foolish causes brand leaders to select people who fit a stereotype (white, male and frequently Swiss or French) to run their North American branches, know sweet FA about the country, the culture, oftentimes even the language, and then scratch their heads wondering why things didn't work out -

Peter Brand: People are overlooked for a variety of biased reasons and perceived flaws. Age, appearance, personality. Bill James and mathematics cut straight through that. Billy, of the 20,000 notable players for us to consider, I believe that there is a championship team of twenty-five people that we can afford, because everyone else in baseball undervalues them.

You Don't Know What You're Talking About!

Yeah, right...

Courtesy of the FH

As sales continue to slump and jobs continue to be shed, reality continues to be avoided at all costs.

October is in the books, and insofar as the US and Canada goes, it is most likely that there will not be any further exports before the end of the year. 

I take no pleasure, no joy, and have very little enthusiasm as I write this because what it underscores is a certain intractability in the very people who got their companies into such a shitty situation, and will continue to do so because they frankly have no ability to see things in a different way. 
Bonuses, promotions, maybe a new car, they are made of Teflon, and they continue to walk between the raindrops of the toxic shit-storm they created.

But for the people who actually do the work?  Layoffs and terminations.  The people who work in the background as suppliers?  Sorry, we're not paying you, and good luck finding new customers as you write off our bad debt. 

And even for many of my colleagues.  Let's just say that adult sized Depends might be on several holiday wish lists.  Because brands are now finally admitting that they are feeling the pinch.  Advertising is going to be cut, and advertisers are now oftentimes not paying what they already owe.

Although I have no personal experience in the area, I have often heard in the literature of addiction that real change will only happen when the person is in so much pain that they cannot imagine any alternative but to change their behavior. 

So at the moment, it seems somewhat clear that for many of the brands they have achieved a new threshold for pain.  And continue to lack the imagination to conceive of alternative outcomes.

So once more, I turn to Moneyball for some common sense that the watch business could really use -

“There was but one question he left unasked, and it vibrated between his lines: if gross miscalculations of a person's value could occur on a baseball field, before a live audience of thirty thousand, and a television audience of millions more, what did that say about the measurement of performance in other lines of work? If professional baseball players could be over- or under valued, who couldn't?” 

― Michael Lewis, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game

Market Inefficiencies

Yesterday should be a wake-up call for the industry.  FC and Citizen made a bold move.  Unfortunately they are not only the pioneers in common sense, they will probably be some of the only ones making clear, informed, proactive decisions.


The industry is still jammed with people chasing pay checks instead of working to build something.  There is a huge pool of potential talent on the sales and marketing sidelines that will never be considered because they do not fit a particular mold.  So instead of hiring a new person with a different perspective, the same pool of marketing, Pr and sales "talent" keeps recycling around the system, half-assing it from one brand to another.  Sorry, but that's the reality.

So I'll leave you with two of my favorite quotes from Moneyball that truly sum-up why FC and Citizen are big winners this morning, and why pretty much the rest of the industry will continue to suck it for the next two to three years -


“Managers tend to pick a strategy that is the least likely to fail, rather then to pick a strategy that is most efficient," Said Palmer. " The pain of looking bad is worse than the gain of making the best move.” 
― Michael Lewis, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game

And one of my talking points during every consultation that I have with a brand -

“The inability to envision a certain kind of person doing a certain kind of thing because you've never seen someone who looks like him do it before is not just a vice. It's a luxury. What begins as a failure of the imagination ends as a market inefficiency: when you rule out an entire class of people from doing a job simply by their appearance, you are less likely to find the best person for the job.” 
― Michael Lewis, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game

Barry Hearn's Rule #10 - Know Your Sell-By Date

Barry Hearn's 10th and final rule that he learned in owning a football club - and its watch world application -

Know your sell-by date.

For better or worse, the watch world is led (by and large) by a bunch of latter-middle-age white guys. And if we are all honest with ourselves, in many instances, these are people who are making it difficult, if not impossible for the new generation of leaders, managers, etc. to grow into their positions.

But this is more than an age issue.  This is a troubling, overwhelmingly white, male dominated industry - and I say that as a 47 year old white male.  For those of us who get press releases the only people of color or women we generally see are either the celebrity ambassadors, or the PR representatives.

Here in the US there are (thankfully) a few women are leading brands for North America, but really there should be more.  And in terms of the color line - it is a pretty clear one.  It shouldn't be that way, but it is.

So how do we fix this?  I think brands should stop looking for the "right type" of people, and rather look for the RIGHT people.  As Barry Hearn has said - "It's about ability".  Being white and male are not, and should not be prerequisites, just as being a woman should not navigate you directly to PR or HR.  That is starting to change, but it is a slow movement.

So I will leave you again with a passage from Moneyball -

“The inability to envision a certain kind of person doing a certain kind of thing because you've never seen someone who looks like him do it before is not just a vice. It's a luxury. What begins as a failure of the imagination ends as a market inefficiency: when you rule out an entire class of people from doing a job simply by their appearance, you are less likely to find the best person for the job.” 
― Michael Lewis, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game

Think outside the box – and I do not mean the “watch box”

That is Barry Hearn's third rule that I have adapted to the watch industry.

4.  Think outside the box – and I do not mean the “watch box”

The watch business is not strictly black and white.  As Mr. Hearn shared about the business of football, you don't work just right handed or left handed - you need a bit of "ambidexterity".  More often than not, there is an unshakable belief that the business is done by certain people in a certain way to achieve a certain outcome.

And here is where I will borrow from Moneyball -

“Managers tend to pick a strategy that is the least likely to fail, rather than to pick a strategy that is most efficient," Said Palmer. " The pain of looking bad is worse than the gain of making the best move.” 
― Michael Lewis, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game

Or to put it another way, brand managers and department heads are in some instances so concerned  about being reprimanded (or worse), they will inevitably take the safest route to ensure continual employment.

This is, of course, a recipe for failure in the long term.  I will share the abbreviated story that a friend shared with me back in 2009 -
Meeting with the heads of several of the group's brands, they had outlined a plan to cover the needs of the entire group in terms of a pr/marketing proposal that would double their coverage and cut their expense in half.  The brand heads said that they couldn't make that decision, that only Person X could.

My friend said - "Great!  Let's set up a meeting!"

The brand heads muttered amongst themselves, and looking extremely uncomfortable said "oh, we couldn't make that recommendation.  Maybe you could contact Person X and propose the meeting to present it again..."

The truth was that it wasn't that they couldn't make the recommendation.  It was clear that they were too afraid to make the recommendation.  Moreover it was abundantly clear that Person X had instilled such a fear of failure, and fear in general that nobody in all of those companies would dare to "break wind" without running it past Person X first.

It was an opportunity to think out side of the "watch box" and do something different, but the fear of failure was far greater than the possible gain of making a bold, but beneficial decision.

This is not intended as an attack of the brand managers, department heads, or even the CEO pulling the strings.  All of these folks are just doing it the same way that they've always done it.  And being employed is far better than being unemployed.

It is an open question to the culture of the industry and how things are done.  Perhaps it is time for a little more "outside the watch box" thinking?

What MONEYBALL Could Teach the Watch Industry

As we swing into the next phase of the year, JCK beckons.  Several SWATCH loyalists were cut loose during BaselWorld, and those still hunting for brands to represent will be prowling like would be pimps at the Transit Authority.

A few brands have made good decisions and are trying new things - but for too many it's the same thing, again and again, and then shock and dismay when the get the same poor result.

To quote Michael Lewis in MONEYBALL -

"The inability to envision a certain kind of person doing a certain kind of thing because you've never seen someone who looks like him do it before is not just a vice.  It's a luxury.  What begins as a failure of the imagination ends as a market inefficiency; when you rule out an entire class of people from doing a job simply by their appearance, you are less likely to find the best person for the job."

Lather, rinse, repeat.