A New Watch Material!

With the now "new and improved" tariffs in effect for Swiss goods, I wanted to take this opportunity to introduce a new watch making material now in favor with several US brand representatives and agents largely dependent upon selling Swiss watches in the US. You're no doubt familiar with stainless steel, gold, platinum... allow me to introduce you to irony!

Courtesy of Black Adder Quotes - https://blackadderquotes.com/

I witnessed a curious thing happening on "Liberation Day" at the Geneva shows. Several well-fed, well-groomed, semi-closeted Make America Great enthusiasts got a particularly cold cup of coffee while roaming the halls of Geneva. The administration that they unfailingly supported had essentially jammed a rather nasty implement up their collective bank accounts without the benefit of a romantic word or lubricant. And it was a curious thing. Grown-assed men were literally pooping in their tighty (suddenly not-so-tidy) whities, lamenting how unfair it was! This was their livelihood for goodness sakes! How could this happen to them?!?

But another funny thing happened, a few weeks later it seemed that all was well! It was all just a bluff! Let unbridled enthusiasm, and even possible avarice reign! And these same folks who were sharing their misgivings about their choices last November on that April day were suddenly back on their soap boxes (via LinkedIn) extolling the virtues of the Presidential administration and flatly criticizing anyone who disagreed with them. 

Fast forward to this past Friday. It seems that the old adage about fool me once should be changed to fool me multiple times... they have yet again changed their collective tune for the third time - give me strength!

It is clear that these "summer soldiers" and "sunshine patriots" (thank you, Thomas Paine) didn't know that the discomfort they felt on Liberation Day was nothing compared to what they are feeling now that the US government has decided to make good on the not-insignificant tariffs for Switzerland, in particular as it applies to Swiss watches.

To be clear, this is not intended to be a political post, favoring one party over the other. But it does serve to underscore an important thing that a lot of these guys seem to have forgotten. This is a relationship business. This is why most folks in the business pre-2016 tended to keep their political views to themselves and not admonish people on LinkedIn for having opposing political views - and this happened and continues to happen on both sides, to be fair. Nobody has a monopoly on self-righteous indignation ; )

Even though it is transactional relationship business any relationship, even a transactional one, requires some level of sincerity. When you blow in the wind to suit what is expedient for your personal bank account? It's hard to have much respect. You should always have your own beliefs, you should not feel the need to have to please anyone but yourself, regardless of which side of the political spectrum you inhabit. But don't constantly modify these (oftentimes loudly stated) opinions to suit whatever situation is going to benefit your bank account only to change back with each new news cycle. It cheapens an already cheapened business. We don't have to agree on everything, but just be honest with yourselves, and be consistent. Because if you can't be honest with yourselves, how can we, your customers, expect you to be honest with us?

The Forecast Calls for Pain

Courtesy of the FH

Pay no attention to the numbers on the graph, everything is fine!

Well, in fairness, according to the folks at the FH, things in some sectors are getting better.  But here in the U S of A?  Per the FH -

On the other hand, the United States recorded one of its worst results of the year after March. 

Maybe, just maybe, it is time to consider that everything that used to work in the past is not working any longer.  Close some retail doors, hold back on stock, set some realistic expectations...

Ironically enough, there are many out there (me included) who do believe that the US is going to emerge in the coming months as one of the leaders and most important markets.  But for that to happen, it might be time to consider some new, or yet unrecognized talent to lead the US efforts for some of the brands that have been flailing.  There is a great deal of talent already in the industry, people who do fantastic work on a daily basis who should be given their opportunity.  Brands are missing out on a fantastic opportunity to not only save their companies, but identify and promote some top notch talent who will help secure not only their survival now, but their long-term success and growth for the years to come.

Or, they can keep doing the same thing and expect a different outcome.

So we'll close with Moneyball again, but this time from the movie rather than the book.  It closely echoes my feeling of what is fundamentally wrong with the decision making paradigm of the watch industry.  The absolute terror of making a mistake and looking foolish causes brand leaders to select people who fit a stereotype (white, male and frequently Swiss or French) to run their North American branches, know sweet FA about the country, the culture, oftentimes even the language, and then scratch their heads wondering why things didn't work out -

Peter Brand: People are overlooked for a variety of biased reasons and perceived flaws. Age, appearance, personality. Bill James and mathematics cut straight through that. Billy, of the 20,000 notable players for us to consider, I believe that there is a championship team of twenty-five people that we can afford, because everyone else in baseball undervalues them.