A Fusion of...

So...

We are back to the topic of celebrity partner / endorser.  Want to know why Breguet doesn't have any problems with the celebrity clients they used to mention in their advertisements like Napoleon and Churchill?  Simple, most of them are dead.  Sounds a bit harsh, but with the news breaking of celebrity partner Lapo Elkann's unfortunate mishap in New York City this past weekend, the question comes to the surface again - are celebrity partners worth the risk?  For those unaware, according to the New York Times (among other outlets) Mr. Elkann was in New York City when following a night of fun, frolics and antics he was believed to have made a false police report.  Britain's Guardian put it a little less subtly -

Lapo Elkann, scion of powerful Agnelli family, charged with faking own kidnap

What pretty much every other outlet I have read has agreed on is that Mr. Elkann was reportedly with an "escort" and that there were drugs involved.  Which is, in fairness, neither here nor there.  The problem arose when he contacted his family, let them know that he was being held against his will and needed $10,000 to gain his release.  I refer you to the reporting from the Guardian.

Needless to say, $10,000 for an Agnelli is a bargain even in this economy.

Part of the fun of working for a watch company that has a following of any sort is that you get to meet some famous and interesting people. And there are few people as interesting as the grandson of L'Avvocato.  But just as celebrities come with entourages, they also come with baggage.  

The people at Hublot are not fools.  There are plenty of bright, savvy people who I suspect give a fair amount of consideration to risk vs reward when it comes to their celebrity partners.  There have been some home runs - Usain Bolt, Pele and others.  Some have been a wee bit controversial like Diego Maradona (although I still say at his peak he was a better player than Pele).  And some were just not good ideas - Floyd Mayweather was perhaps an ill-advised roll of the PR dice.  And that is putting it as delicately as I can.  Luckily the "Black and Blue" Bang never saw the light of day.  Now if we could just convince them to walk away from FIFA we'd really be onto something ; )

And now we come back to Elkann the younger.  Hublot was, of course, counting on his celebrity, enthusiasm, and potential to provoke attention.  Well, when viewed strictly in those terms he has delivered.

So the big question is - was this a PR "black eye" that Hublot was unwilling to suffer? 
Well, maybe, because it appears that perhaps this was a bang too big for the folks in Nyon because as of 7:00 AM Eastern Time, any attempt to find Mr. Elkann's visage on the Hublot website or to select the Italia Independent watch was greeted with:


Our website is under maintenance,
Sorry for disconvenience.

 

Now before you get too snarky, it bears mentioning that although disconvenience is not a word that could be said to be in "common usage", it is actually a word.  Albeit not one regularly used for several hundred years.  So strap on your "Big Bang Sundial" while I educate you, courtesy of Oxford Dictionary Online:

Disconvenience

noun

rare

• 1historical
  Lack of accordance or correspondence; = disconveniency. Compare inconvenience. historical and rare after 17th cent.
• 2Inconvenience, disadvantage; (as a count noun) an inconvenience, a disadvantage. Now rare.

Origin

Late Middle English; earliest use found in Guy de Chauliac's Grande Chirurgie. Originally from (i) Middle French disconvenience disagreement, incompatibility.

 

The Golden Bridge Round 39mm

From Corum -

Courtesy of Corum

A beautiful new take on the Golden Bridge, available in several different variations.

Courtesy of Corum

 As advertised, the case measures 39 mm, and can be had in either rose or white gold.

Courtesy of Corum

The case itself is set with 76 diamonds, and is water resistant to 3 ATM although I highly doubt this little bijoux will journey anywhere near the briny deep.

Courtesy of Corum

 The movement is the CO 113 which is hand winding with a power reserve of 40 hours.

Courtesy of Corum

One version is a wee bit different, the B113/03279 which is set with 48 gemstones in addition to 28 diamonds.

Courtesy of Corum

A New Chrongograph

From Brellum -

Courtesy of Brellum

Although I have yet to see one in person, the photos look pretty compelling.  This is the Duobox Chronometer.

Courtesy of Brellum

Available with either a blue, silver or grey dial and a choice of a leather strap (brown or black) or bracelet.

Courtesy of Brellum

Courtesy of Brellum

This is a brand new endeavor, but it looks good so far!

Here are the pertinents -

MOVEMENT
Caliber: BRELLUM BR-750-1 Chronometer Automatic (base Valjoux 7750);
Certification: Chronometer movement officially certified by the COSC;
Decoration: Spotting decoration (Beadwork), Côtes de Genève, Oscillating weight BRELLUM;
Technology: 25 jewels, 28'800 A / H, power reserve 46 hours;
Functions: Hours, Minutes, Seconds, Dates, Chronograph, Pulsometer.

CASE:
Material: Stainless Steel 316L, DIN 1.4435;
Diameter: 41.80mm, Thickness: 16.20mm;
Crystal: BOX type sapphire glass with anti-reflective treatment;
Dial: BLACK Dome curved, sun satin dial with appliques and luminova;
Hands: Hands with Luminova;
Water resistant: 50m;
Caseback: Numbered caseback with BOX-type sapphire crystal;

Strap: Leather strap with fold clasps.

Luminox Goes to Mondaine

So news came out today that the Bernheim brothers (owners of Mondaine) had completed their purchase of the remaining 50% of the remaining shares of Luminox -

Courtesy of Mondaine

ANNOUNCING THE PURCHASE OF LUMINOX WATCH SHARES BY MONDAINE WATCH LTD OWNERS

San Francisco/Zurich, November 28^th, 2016 -- The owners of the Swiss watch manufacturer Mondaine Watch Ltd, Ronnie and Andre Bernheim have reached an agreement with Barry Cohen to purchase his shares in Luminox, including its American distribution company. The brothers first bought a fifty percent share of the business from Cohen’s former partner in 2006 and now own the Luminox companies and brand in their entirety.

 

Cohen, who created Luminox in 1989, says: “I founded Luminox in order to introduce self-powered illuminated watches to consumers.  I take great pride in having achieved something rarely accomplished, producing truly innovative Swiss-made watches which are globally distributed and recognized as the best in class. I wish both Andre and Ronnie great success in taking Luminox forward.”

 

Ronnie Bernheim comments: “At this point and time we thank Barry sincerely for all his commitment, passion and involvement with the brand and wish him all the best in his life outside of the Luminox world.”

 

Speaking of the plans for Luminox, Andre Bernheim says: “We have great concepts and products under development which we strongly believe will take the brand to a much higher level, even with the difficult nature of the industry at the moment.

 

This new vision will be showcased during the Baselworld Watch Fair (March 23-30, 2017). Rather than exhibiting inside the event hall, Luminox promises to surprise and delight visitors with a specially-designed space some one hundred meters (300 feet) away from the Baselworld building.

 

Moving forward, the primary goal will be to continue to grow Luminox worldwide in conjunction with distributors on all continents and supply this rugged Swiss-made watch collection with constant night visibility to people involved in pleasure and extreme outdoor activities.

Two Phrases to Eliminate at BaselWorld

"James is a longtime friend of the brand!"

I hear this throw-away phrase at least six times a day during BaselWorld.  It is one of those profoundly dubious comments bandied about most often by the agencies hired at ridiculously high costs to somehow make you (the blogger) feel important.  I actually couldn't contain the laughter when that little set of bons mots was proffered with utter insincerity in the Girard-Perregaux booth this past year by the very agency that had avoided my calls and put off my repeated requests for an appointment.  Luckily, my coffee cup was only halfway to my mouth, avoiding a potentially embarrassing spray of lukewarm espresso onto the (no doubt) miso stained ties of the Japanese journalists sitting down the table from me.

Friend of the Brand is code for - "We don't advertise with them, we don't really make a huge effort, but they keep insisting on an appointment, so try to say something nice".  It is that not-so-subtle cue that you are clearly inconveniencing these people.


"Good to see you my friend!"

My friend is one of those funny expressions that clearly has different meanings in literal translation. The watch industry's lingua franca is English.  But the majority of the gatekeepers, CEOs, and transplanted brand managers are not native English speakers.  In French, mon ami has a very nice, collegial, downright fraternal meaning.  But there is a certain edge to "my friend" when used by native speakers of English, as it is oftentimes used in what can gently be referred to grammatically as the facetious tense.  I will defer to Chef, author and liver of life Anthony Bourdain's analysis from his seminal tome on the restaurant industry, Kitchen Confidential -

Shamelessly borrowed from Wikipedia

Pinche wey means "fucking guy" but can also mean "you adorable scamp" or "pal".  But if you use the word pal - or worse, the phrase my friend - in my kitchen, it'll make people paranoid.  My friend famously means "asshole" in the worst and most sincere sense of the word.

The Limes Neptun

Has received an update -

Courtesy of Limes

The folks at Limes have taken something that was already quite good, and made it even better.  Some of the elements of the case (formerly all brushed) are now polished to offer some stronger contrast.  This extended to the hands which are now polished in an effort to provide greater legibility.

Courtesy of Limes

Here are the pertinents -

Technical details

Movement
Swiss automatic movement Sellita SW 200-1

Watch case

ICKLER diver's case, water resistant to 100 ATM, stainless steel brushed and polished,
diameter 41,5mm, with crown 46mm, length 6-12: 50mm, thickness 12,5mm,
sapphire crystal with A/R coating, unidirectional rotating steel bezel with indexes and luminous point, solid screw down case back, screw down crown, screw bars

Dial

Black with large luminous indices

Hands

Luminous hands

Band

Stainless steel bracelet with safety clasp and fold-out extension.
Width 20mm, wrist size: 16-22 cm

The Peter Henlein in Gold

This is the latest from Meister Singer -

Courtesy of Meister Singer

The release was a bit thin on details, so I'm just gonna' serve it up the way that I received it -

The “Peter Henlein” edition honors one of the originators of German watchmaking
MeisterSinger manufactures unusual mechanical watches that display the time with one single hour hand, precisely to the nearest five minutes – quite sufficient for people who arrange their time themselves and don’t worry about seconds.
The “Peter Henlein” edition is both technically and optically a big exception in the MeisterSinger collection. Instead of the upright hour digits, the “Peter Henlein” edition has them placed radially. In the center of the dial there is a second circle indicating the hours in Roman numerals. The design of the needle-shaped hour hand is also quite different from the usual MeisterSinger style: The dial of the “Peter Henlein” is based on historical timepieces, which Manfred Brassler, the founder of MeisterSinger, took as an inspiration when designing his single-hand watches.

Mechanical miracles from the city of the mastersingers
In Germany, one name in particular is synonymous with early watchmaking: Peter Henlein (around 1479 to 1542), a master locksmith from Nuremberg who was, for a long time, somewhat too generously accredited with having invented the first “wearable” clock. Although we now know that he was not the first to design this type of timepiece and that the famous “Nuremberg egg” pocket watches were only made after his death, he was certainly responsible for the popularity of the “pocket watch”. Unfortunately it is not known whether he, as a Nuremberg master craftsman, sang in one of the city’s singers’ fraternities from which MeisterSinger draws its name. The name Peter Henlein is also synonymous with the age of the Renaissance, in which the proud bourgeoisie, both artistically and technically talented, began to shape the world in a decisive way. 

Chronometer with a Renaissance face

In Henlein’s day, clocks were designed with one single hand – firstly because they were unable to indicate smaller units of time with any degree of precision, and secondly because the world simply did not need to run by minutes or even seconds. However, there is a good reason why the “Peter Henlein” edition in particular is also fitted with a second hand: It is the prerequisite for participating in the strict precision tests in the laboratories of the Swiss COSC, according to which the watch may be officially named the first MeisterSinger chronometer. That is a wonderful accolade for the specially designed movement that powers the Peter Henlein edition – the hand-wound caliber MSH01, which MeisterSinger had developed in Switzerland. Crafted to meet the specifications of MeisterSinger watches and fitted with a uniquely shaped bridge designed by Manfred Brassler, to date it has only been used in MeisterSinger’s premium line – the Circularis. A top-of-the-line movement, precise and reliable, the MSH01 also continues in the tradition of Peter Henlein and his “portable watches”. 

 In the Peter Henlein edition, the movement and the bright dial are enclosed in an 18-karat gold case, 43 millimeters in diameter and waterproof up to 5 bar. The hand-wound movement with its gold-plated bridge and a generous 120-hour power reserve is clearly visible through the sapphire glass exhibition back. 

The Peter Henlein is available from September as a limited edition of 15 watches.

Exodus

BaselWorld is shrinking.  Now to be clear, this is not akin to the polar ice caps melting, but rather what one of my favorite commentators on the watch industry Gordon Gekko mentioned in Wall Street - Money Never Sleeps:


"The mother of all evil is speculation."

I find it fascinating how difficult it is for a group of European MBAs to get their heads around the fairly simple laws of supply and demand.  Because we are now seeing a knock-on impact on not just the watch brands, their suppliers, their retailers, their marketing and advertising partners, but BaselWorld itself.  And it has been pretty much the same type of thinking that is doing in several watch brands that is now taking a bite out of the largest, most important fair in the world.  I mean, the watch business will keep growing and growing, right?

BaselWorld is a great experience for the journalists.  It is very professionally managed, a great deal of accommodations are made for us.  Even free food (and more importantly coffee) is available all day long.  Media packages, statuesque models dressed to the nines, no expense (seemingly) is spared.  But none of that comes for free.

The new construction which increased the hall space was welcome.  Hall 2 used to have all the charm of a Stalin era airport terminal, and now I no longer feel as if I am going through Check Point Charlie when I'm transiting between Hall 1 and Hall 2.  But if I am honest, I think that the fair organizers got a wee bit greedy.  Rental space prices went through the roof.  One brand was "frog marched" out of their booth on the second day of the fair in 2015 because the final part of their payment hadn't yet been received.  Think about that for a minute, the fair organizers decided that a PR black eye and guaranteeing that they wouldn't get the balance of payment made more sense than working with the brand owners to reach a solution.  Several brands that had been exhibiting for years decided that enough was enough and it was time to spend the money somewhere else.  In the past these had been smaller independent brands. 

But in this past year we have seen Ulysse Nardin and Girrard-Perregaux throw in the towel to head south to Geneva in January.  This opens up two rather enormous spaces.  Now if we are being honest, Girard-Peregaux made little to no effort to even participate in this past year's BaselWorld.  People trying to get an appointment were forced to just show up at the counter, deal with some rather sarcastic and clearly put-upon gate keepers, then continue to email and call throughout the fair in the hopes of getting even a shared appointment.  So it was clear that GP had given up not only on BaselWorld, but even putting forth a half effort while they were there.  Truth be told, it was a colossal waste of time and money.  So maybe SIHH is going to be more in their wheelhouse. 

Timex has called time on their participation for the upcoming fair, and offered some very sane, rational and wise reasons for not being a part of BaselWorld 2017.  And chances are good that there will be other dominoes to fall.  In related news, after they had "shoo-ed" all of the smaller independent brands out of the Palace, several of the more well-heeled space holders who they had cleared out the rabble to accommodate are also off to Geneva, and now with vacancies being a bit more pronounced, the Palace will not be open this coming year.

I love BaselWorld.  For me it is like Christmas, the World Cup, my Anniversary, the Tour de France and my Birthday all in one.  I hope that things stabilize.  I hope that the fair organizers will learn from the painful lessons that the brand owners are now grappling with and price the space more realistically.  And frankly, if that means no more free lunch, well I'm prepared to live with that ; )

Doing Good - SEVENFRIDAY

This was a very, very welcome sight over the Thanksgiving weekend.  A watch company actually spending time, money and effort in a meaningful way.

Courtesy of SEVENFRIDAY

I like to walk. In fact, I like to walk a lot. In my life I have been pretty lucky. For the most part I can walk anywhere I want without worrying about stepping on something that at best would blow off my leg, at worst... well you know the worst.

So bravo to SEVENFRIDAY for focusing some of their ever-growing marketing muscle on raising money to help clear land mines in Laos by directing not 10%, not 20%, not even 50% but 100% of the sales of 100 special watches to benefit Handicap International!

That's right, ALL money after tax from the sale of every M1/05 Freedom goes to Handicap International to help aid their essential work demining Laos.

SEVENFRIDAY has partnered with Handicap International to raise funds to help finance the removal of landmines in Laos. And because they are doing something so valuable, so important, I think it's only fair that they get a chance to tell this story in their own words -

SEVENFRIDAY is about Freedom. For people in some regions, the simple freedom of stepping on their own soil represents a mortal risk. Ones of those regions is Laos. It was the most bombed area in the world and still to this day it’s covered with bombs and landmines, even more than 40 years after the war. Many loose their lives or are disabled because of these remnants of war.
 

As a global, community centred brand, SEVENFRIDAY feels committed to take social responsibility. To support the courageous  people in clearing the fields and demining Laos we launch the #freetowalk project to raise awareness and launched the M1/05 to raise much needed funds.

100% of the sales of each M1/05 FREEDOM Limited Edition (100 pieces) goes to support Handicap International, clear landmines in Laos so the people there can be #freetowalk, free from danger and free from fear.

 

                             M1/05

 

The M1/05 is a limited SEVENFRIDAY watch constructed in partnership with the Global Peace Prize winning charity Handicap International. All money after tax from the sale of every M1/05 goes to Handicap International to help aid their essential work demining Laos.

1 watch sold = demining an area equivalent to 4 tennis courts

100 watches sold = demining an area equivalent to 20 football pitches

It's All About Timing

Every now and then Frederique Constant comes out with something surprising, intriguing and downright useful. 

Courtesy of Frederique Constant

This is their latest offering - not a watch, not a smart watch, but something that will certainly keep you better informed about your watches!

There have been a few different attempts to create a rate measuring device for the "hobbyist", and they have had varying levels of success/acceptance.  They have been a bit bulky, some have debated the accuracy of the measurements, etc.  I can hear the "Pointdexters" right now arguing about frequencies, etc.,  and how only their slide-rules, calculations and tea leaves will give an accurate reading ; )

Courtesy of Frederique Constant

And if you are a one or two watch kinda' guy or girl, then this is probably not for you.  But if I am honest, I see a HUGE group of people that this could be of great use for.  From the small store that offers pre-owned watches, to the collector going to get togethers where they might wish to trade or buy a watch from a fellow collector. I myself could get great benefit from this when doing reviews of watches. 

Here is the release in full from the folks in Geneva -

Accuracy

The hallmark of a great timepiece is accuracy. A measure of accuracy is a measure of value. Each mechanical timepiece has a tiny Balance Wheel that acts as a pendulum. Every oscillation back and forth should take exactly one second. But if the Balance Wheel mechanism is off by just a matter of a few degrees, the accuracy of the watch will suffer.

Measure

To start measuring the heartbeat of the timepiece, the ingenious Analytics Clip must be placed on the watch and the user must launch the SwissConnect Analytics App, available for iOS and Android. Within seconds, Frederique Constant Analytics measures the accuracy of the watch. It measures the precision of mechanical watches, with an accuracy of at least ±0.2s/day.

Visualize results

An oscilloscope shows the audio waveform in real time. The result is plotted in a chart, which can be saved for later reference.
Also, Analytics can record and save a long-time measurement, e.g. for 12 hours, to analyze the long-time performance of your watch. 

Multiple watches

Frederique Constant Analytics supports a wide range of frequencies, covering almost all mechanical watches available on the market. In case the user doesn’t know the watch’s frequency, a frequency auto detect function is available on the app.

Track

Frederique Constant Analytics connects to the Cloud. When the user measures a watch, data is saved to his or her cloud account. Accuracy measurements can be tracked over time on a dashboard. Frederique Constant encourages every user to monitor their watch collection and record all measurements. This will enable them to follow their timepieces over the years and detect when each should be serviced.

Knowledge base

Frederique Constant offers a growing knowledge base on mechanical watch accuracy, maintenance and service. There are various reasons that the accuracy of a mechanical watch changes over time. Particularly the balance spring can change in strength from the micro-stresses to the metal they are made of. Moreover, watch escapements are lubricated with oils, and as those oils age, the rate of a mechanical watch changes as well.

Backup and restore

Once the user has registered his or her Private Account, the Analytics app will back up the watch’s measurements to the cloud and keep data available anywhere. The user can easily restore data if he or she switches to a new smartphone.

The Frederique Constant measuring clip will be available at Frederique Constant Authorized Retailers and through the Frederique Constant webstore at: http://frederiqueconstant.com/analytics/

The asking price is 99 Euros, and it supports both Android and iOS.

For more info -

Frederique Constant Analytics
 

Where's the Love?

So it is now clear that the shot callers at Richemont, and the people that they employ have recognized that they have a fundamental difference of opinion regarding how they should work together to improve the financial situation of the group.

Richemont believes that jobs should be cut.  Oh, and instead of trimming the executive levels, they should increase them by shifting the current CEOs into even higher level (most likely higher paying) positions and replace them with new CEOs which will (you guessed it) increase the amount of payroll and benefits directed towards senior level management.

The people who do the actual heavy lifting have a different perspective - maybe they could go to part time / reduced schedules, hang on to their jobs, and work TOGETHER to try and improve the very awful situation that the very people getting promoted are actually responsible for.

Today the rubber hit the road as the UNIA labor union reported in their newsletter that approximately 700 watch makers in the Vallée de Joux and Geneva protested against what appears to be a nearly terminal case of "Greedy Bastarditis".  Here is a link to the article -

UNIA

"Our lives count more than your profit!"
That was the rallying cry of those protesting, and it signals what an industry insider shared with me was a truly unique moment in the history of the Swiss watch industry.  Typically, the employees would cave, accept the situation and move on.  But in my personal opinion, I think that the people who are being expected to pay the freight on the excesses, miscalculations, and failures of the people now being promoted have finally had enough and are calling BULLSHIT.  The emperor is running around "starkers" and it's time to work TOGETHER to try and find a reasonable solution.

Again, I am sure nobody at the upper levels of Richemont or UNIA are likely reading this, but I am a qualified mediator, and I'd be happy to help you guys work it out ; )

 

 

Something New from Pierre DeRoche

These two new models are referred to as Pure.  They are the two newest members of the GrandCliff Collection.

Courtesy of Pierre DeRoche

The men's version, the GrandCliff Pure, is a fairly straight forward proposition.  Black dial with hours, minutes, seconds, large date and power reserve.

Here are the pertinents -

MOVEMENT

Mechanical automatic, 21 jewels, decorated and engraved oscillating weight. 

Power reserve at 7 o’clock. Date window at 3 o’clock.

FUNCTIONS

Hours, minutes, seconds, date and power reserve.

CASE

Steel, 40 mm. Anti-reflective sapphire crystal, front and back.

DIAL

Black or white. Hour-markers, Arabic numerals or Roman.

STRAP

Alligator leather with steel safety folding clasp.

Courtesy of Pierre DeRoche

The ladies version is known as the GrandCliff Pure Nacre.  It offers the same functionality as the man's model, but with a beautiful blue mother of pearl dial, and a diamond set bezel.

MOVEMENT

Mechanical automatic, 21 jewels. Decorated and engraved rotor.

FUNCTIONS

Hours, minutes, seconds, date and power reserve indicator (42 hours).

CASE

Steel. Anti-reflective sapphire crystal, front and back. Bezel set with 60 diamonds (0.91 cts). 40 mm diameter.

DIAL

Mother-of-pearl, 4 Roman numerals. Power-reserve indicator at 7 o’clock. Date window

at 3 o’clock.

STRAP

Alligator with safety folding clasp.

OTHER VERSION

Non-set bezel.

Who Knows Our Customer Better...

than our customer?

As I have shared on more than one occasion, I am called upon from time to time to offer feedback/consultation to brands both big and small.  And with sales continuing to drop, and brands scrambling to try and find something to offer their customers that might stimulate them to actually buy something I was brought back to something I read several years ago in the FYMW book -

 

 

 

Shamelessly borrowed from Amazon

It was actually a riff on what an "in touch" fashion brand owner might say in the form of a memo to his staff.  A lot of it is very tongue in cheek, but one thing that the fictional fashion brand owner asked really struck a nerve with me:

"Who knows our customers better than our customers?"

And this is clearly a question that watch brands are NOT asking. 

Think about it this way, in virtually every other industry companies enlist the help of focus groups to gather information and valuable feedback on what might be the best way forward with a new product.  When I lived in San Francisco I was an active member of the "Focus Group Circuit".  It was great!  Generally once or twice a week you could go and participate.  You were fed either lunch or dinner, and paid $100 in cash for 1 hour of your time.  And I can honestly say that of the 20 or more focus groups I participated in, only about 3 of those potential new ideas ever made it to market.

Now consider some of the many watches that just did not make it, that just weren't ready for prime time.  Watches so unpopular and so unloved that they had to be stripped for their guts.  Or some that simply had to be dumped in bulk on the grey market.  It is very hard to be objective about what the buying public wants when you are the one making and promoting it.  So maybe it is time to start looking at what sold, and ask some probing questions of the people who actually bought it.  You know, crazy questions like - why did you buy this?  What did you like about it?  Do you still like it?  Why?  Why not?

I realize that this is an over simplification, but I do begin to wonder more and more how much the decisions a brand makes are driven by what they think their customers may want, as opposed to what people within the brand want.  A focus group, even after the sale has been made, will go a long way to informing future decisions - hopefully for the better.

Irrational Desire

Sometimes you just swim against the stream.  When asked about Tudor just about everyone will mention the Black Bay, the Pelagos or even the North Flag.  And those are all very fine time keepers.  But for me there is one that I long for beyond the others -

Courtesy of Tudor

I have written about this alarming little bijoux before, but I guess that is the true sign of irrational desire - it keeps bubbling to the surface. 

I realize alarm functions are not for everyone, but this one I just really dig.

Now it's off to teach class, if I had an Advisor it would be telling me so ; )


Enjoy your watches!

You Don't Know What You're Talking About!

Yeah, right...

Courtesy of the FH

As sales continue to slump and jobs continue to be shed, reality continues to be avoided at all costs.

October is in the books, and insofar as the US and Canada goes, it is most likely that there will not be any further exports before the end of the year. 

I take no pleasure, no joy, and have very little enthusiasm as I write this because what it underscores is a certain intractability in the very people who got their companies into such a shitty situation, and will continue to do so because they frankly have no ability to see things in a different way. 
Bonuses, promotions, maybe a new car, they are made of Teflon, and they continue to walk between the raindrops of the toxic shit-storm they created.

But for the people who actually do the work?  Layoffs and terminations.  The people who work in the background as suppliers?  Sorry, we're not paying you, and good luck finding new customers as you write off our bad debt. 

And even for many of my colleagues.  Let's just say that adult sized Depends might be on several holiday wish lists.  Because brands are now finally admitting that they are feeling the pinch.  Advertising is going to be cut, and advertisers are now oftentimes not paying what they already owe.

Although I have no personal experience in the area, I have often heard in the literature of addiction that real change will only happen when the person is in so much pain that they cannot imagine any alternative but to change their behavior. 

So at the moment, it seems somewhat clear that for many of the brands they have achieved a new threshold for pain.  And continue to lack the imagination to conceive of alternative outcomes.

So once more, I turn to Moneyball for some common sense that the watch business could really use -

“There was but one question he left unasked, and it vibrated between his lines: if gross miscalculations of a person's value could occur on a baseball field, before a live audience of thirty thousand, and a television audience of millions more, what did that say about the measurement of performance in other lines of work? If professional baseball players could be over- or under valued, who couldn't?” 

― Michael Lewis, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game

Breitling

and the theory that they may, or may not be for sale has finally caught the attention of the more mainstream media, so now I will weigh in on what I think is next for Théodore Schneider's brand.

For the past two years, the word around the campfire was that Breitling was "sprucing itself up" for a possible sale.  Well, Switzerland's Cash online has sort of danced around the issue without really saying anything -
Cash.CH

But let me posit a theory -
There would really be no reason for any of the big groups to make an offer.  SWATCH is stacked, LVMH is asserting that all is well, and truth be told I do not think that Breitling would really add to their portfolio.  Kering has proven one thing very, very clearly - they have absolutely no idea how the watch business works.  And Richemont, unless they are playing a truly epic game of chicken with Unia, are more likely to shed a brand or two rather than pick one up.

That leaves City Champ (Eterna, Corum) or the ever growing and evolving Citizen (Citizen, Arnold & Son, Frederique Constant and Alpina).  

And this is where I'd put my money on Citizen and I'll tell you why -

1.  City Champ, by all accounts, has plenty of money.  With Eterna they have a brand with TONS of potential, but that potential has not been realized as Eterna has been mishandled and mismanaged.  They have everything that they need to succeed except a seasoned, savvy, swashbuckling captain at the helm - picture Errol Flynn with a manufacturing and mechanical background.  Someone who can identify the problems, take steps to correct them, and be a leader, not an ego.  So I think that they will be focusing on putting Eterna in dry dock, cutting away the rot, patching the hull, selecting the crew and setting sail again.

2.  Citizen has proven that sexy is not always the answer.  Most people never saw the FC/Alpina acquisition coming.  So don't be surprised if it was Citizen coming in.  Breitling has the technology to make beautiful chronograph movements.  So it stands to reason that this could be a very logical, rational acquisition.  And if I were a betting man, this is where I'd place my marker.

Now keep in mind that, as I said, several of us have been talking about a possible Breitling sale for some time, and it might be that there is an oil-drunk sheikh out there in need of a hobby making all other theories irrelevant.

So as always, we shall wait and we shall see.