Moonphase Monday - The Fiftysix Complete Calendar 18K 5N Pink Gold

From Vacheron Constantin -

Courtesy of Vacheron Constantin

Okay, it bears mentioning that I realize that for many readers - this writer included, the idea of owning a watch from Vacheron is akin to drinking water from the moon. But I also believe that she watches (not brands, but individual watches) are not unlike a singular work of art that you wear on your wrist. This is not "payola fluff". If I am completely honest, Vacheron makes some watches that frankly offend my sense of aesthetics. Eric Ripert is a wonderful chef and I truly enjoyed his memoir - 32 Yolks.  But the American from the Historiques collection for all its pedigree simply is not my jam, no matter how fondly he recounts acquiring it.  And then again, it also illustrates that we all have to dance to our own drumbeat ; )

But back to the Fiftysix Complete Calendar -

Courtesy of Vacheron Constantin

It is a beautifully executed design, and despite it costing more than my car, if money were no object I would be heading to the closest Vacheron boutique to pick one out.

Here are the pertinents -

CASE

• Material

  18K 5N pink gold

• Size (mm)

  40 mm

• Thickness (mm)

  11.60

• Caseback

  Transparent caseback, sapphire glass

• Water-resistance (bar)   

  3

Courtesy of Vacheron Constantin

MOVEMENT

• Reference

  2460 QCL/1

• Energy

  Self-winding

• Size (mm)

  29 (11 ¼''')

• Thickness (mm)

  5.4

• Number of parts

  308

• Number of jewels

  27

• Power reserve (hours)

  40

• Frequency

  28800 v.p.h. (4 Hz)

• Indications

  Hours, Minutes, Second in center, day of the week in apperture, stop seconds device, month in aperture, hand-type date, precision moon phase

• Certification

  Hallmark of Geneva

  
  

  
  

  
  

  
  

  
  

  
  

  
  

  
  

  
  

  
  

  
  

  
  

  
  

  
  

  
  

Best in Show at Watches & Wonders -

Goes to Baume & Mercier's Hampton Automatic Big Date / Dual Time -

Courtesy of Baume & Mercier

Watches & Wonders often rapidly devolves into a popularity contest.  Sure Panerai, Vacheron and Jeager are cool and exciting, but for me the real star of this year's presentations was a new take on the Hampton from Baume & Mercier.

Baume & Mercier had been in the wilderness for awhile.  But with the previously released Baumatic, and now the new self-winding Hamptons, I think there is a real opportunity for Baume & Mercier to step out of the shadows of it's more popular, flashy brothers and sisters and to finally be appreciated for what it is.  

Courtesy of Baume & Mercie

I love the shape, I love the size, and as I am now in the beginning chapters of my second half century I love the realistic legibility of the dial and its various functions.  Yes, I do love little details like GMTs and dates, but they inevitably are writ small on most dials or require a certain amount of patience that I, frankly don't always posses.  And as my optometrist will tell you, my vision is not exactly 20/20.  The big date is extremely welcome, and the day/night indicator on the dual time register is a wonderful piece of whimsy that will also ensure you don't inadvertently jack-up the date changing mechanism should you need to re-set the watch after not wearing it for awhile.

And while I was once in my 30s, and I weighed less, and was not quite so grey on the sides, I hold no fantasies about getting behind the wheel of a Formula 1 car, diving for sunken treasure, or punching out a Nazi on Omaha Beach.  I want a watch that speaks to me, not to some goofy vision of what the marketing department tells me I am.  

And ultimately, what we like and don't like should be, somehow, personal, right?  If I were invited to Geneva for the big show, and given a blank check?  This is the one I'd put my marker on.

Here are the pertinents -

HAMPTON REFERENCE
 M0A10523
MOVEMENT
  Automatic (Soprod TT651)
  Bridge with circular-grained decor
  Sandblasted plate with snailed decor
  Oscillating weight adorned with “Côtes de      
          Genève” and snailed decors
  Power reserve: 42 hours
  Jewels: 21
  Frequency: 4Hz (28’800 vph)
  Thickness: 5.25 mm
FUNCTIONS
  H/M/S, grande date, second fuseau,  
          indicateur jour-nuit
CASE
  Rectangular
  Size: 48 x 31 mm
  Thickness: 10.8 mm
  Polished stainless steel
  Scratch-resistant curved sapphire crystal 
  Open case back secured with 4 screws*
DIAL
  Opaline and grained silver-colored
  Riveted black ruthenium Arabic numerals   
          and indexes 
  Black ruthenium sword-shaped hands
  Black and grey minute-track
STRAP
  Interchangeable black all square scales  
          alligator with grey stitching
  System of bars with very reliable lug that   
          allows to change the strap without tools
CLASP
  Triple folding clasp with security push- 
          pieces 
WATER-RESISTANT
  5 ATM (approx. 50m)

Who's Next?

Speaking with a brand owner the other day and the question he kept asking - who is next?

What did he mean by that? Well, up until the (if we're honest) late 90s / early oughts nobody really gave two tosses about who ran what watch brand. And designers were, by and large, only really recognized by a handful of people.

Now the funny part of all of this is that no single thing so dramatic happened to change the landscape inside of the industry. It was a lot of little things that all took place around the same time, and created a snow ball effect. More on this for a different post, but it's important to bear in mind that there was a time not so very long ago where we neither knew or cared about who designed our favorite watch, or who ran the brand.

Now back to the opening salvo - Who's next?

The watch industry is just that, an industry. But within every industry there are always glimmers of excitement, mavericks, people who chart their own course and in doing so offer something truly remarkable, that stands the test of time.

Names that were mentioned during this conversation included the obvious - Biver, Hayek and Schnyder. But some others came through - Silberstein, Genta and Richard Mille. And the question again was - "Who is next?" and the honest answer that I gave was pretty blunt - nobody.

Now before you beetle over to the comment button to leave your bon mots, allow me to elaborate. There are plenty of creative, talented people out there making some wonderful things -

Sarpaneva -

Shamelessly borrowed from the Sarpaneva Facebook page

Fiona Krüger -

Courtesy of Fiona Krüger

Patrik Sjögren -

Courtesy of GoS

But these folks have been at it for awhile, and in fairness, they are taking different approaches from the luminaries that preceded them. Because back in the day, you had to have a benefactor. The Royal Oak is a great watch, but (and I say this with all due respect), it would not have been anything more than an interesting idea without the weight of Audemars Piguet behind it. And even that, on it's own, was not enough, a certain amount of luck was involved and it is safe to say that it was lightning in a bottle. Think I'm full of it? Well let's see... there is the Nautilus. It was backed by a tiny, insignificant little Swiss firm... Patek Philippe.

And yet there were other really dope designs such as the Overseas and the Laureato. But neither one has really enjoyed the same level of "thingness" that the Royal Oak or the Nautilus have.

So who or what is next remains really hard to know, and here's
why - fear. I am a risk averse fellow myself, but fear is what drives the majority of decisions made in the larger brands. Fear of failure, fear of embarrassment, fear of looking bad. And now that Vacheron, GP, Blancpain and others are part of larger groups that are answerable to investors, etc.? That fear is on steroids.

What many of us are waiting for is to see brands develop and grow talent IN HOUSE. Talent that will be encouraged to take some risks, and make watches that are out of the norm and challenge the status quo. Now it would be easy to say that there is nothing new in watches. Well, I wouldn't necessarily buy that, but I would say that at the rate we are going we will never know if the big brands don't start letting the next generation take their turn at the wheel.

In this day and age, you don't necessarily need a benefactor, but more and more it becomes impossible for the independent creator to do more than merely create. It can be the most beautiful, technically advanced, cutting edge watch out there. But if nobody knows about it, nobody buys it.

We are ready to find out who's next. So big brands? The ball's in your court. And I hope that the independents maintain their independence. If the big dogs aren't willing or able to take some chances? Let them labor on in mediocrity.

We Sail Tonight For Singapore - Part the Third

From Singapore, by Tom Waits - 

We sail tonight for Singapore
Take your blankets from the floor
Wash your mouth out by the door
The whole town is made of iron ore
Every witness turns to steam
They all become Italian dreams
Fill your pockets up with earth
Get yourself a dollar’s worth
Away boys, away boys, heave away

So the November numbers are in, and because it appears to be my lot in life to be (if not the lone) one of the few contrarians out there in the watch world, here goes -

Courtesy of the FH

Again, the image is sort of fuzzy, and I do apologize for that.  But truth be told, the results are more than just a wee-bit fuzzy themselves.

The first thing to notice is that the numbers are going rather retro.  Now in fairness, they are much better than this time last year.  But if we are looking at them objectively, it is safe to say that they have been slipping the last 3 months.  And it is also safe to say that the only reason that they are as good as they are, is the push to shove as much product across the borders of the various cantons before the new regulations go into force.  

But then it gets more interesting when you factor in the countries that are "up" versus "not-so-up".

Curious to relate?

Mighty Singapore is once again back with one of their semi-annual market surges this time of (wait for it) +9.5%.

Now in the interest of total transparency, the closest I have ever come to Singapore was when my girlfriend (at the time) left Japan to return home to the UK and spent a week in Singapore and sent me postcards and letters from the Raffles Hotel in, you guessed it, Singapore.  Well, needless to say that relationship did not stand the test of time, nor do I suspect that the recent (again, semi-annual surge) of watch exports to Singapore, truly signals their emergence as a world hub for buying watches.  Now as a source to "source" grey market watches for global "discharge"?  Sure!

Even stranger, the US is apparently the darling of the industry with a mighty surge of + 17.6%.  Curious to relate (again) this export figure does not nearly match the (granted anecdotal) evidence provided by several US retailers that I have spoken with.  Of those I have spoken with?  Sales are pretty flat.  

Once again, at the risk of being, well, honest?  If the export numbers don't correlate with the "on the ground" feedback about actual sales, it tells you one clear thing that further informs other points -

1.  Watches are being exported to subsidiary offices to get them off the books at Swiss HQ.

2.  Watch sales are flat in North America.

3.  The grey market has PLENTY of product to sell.

The industry has not recovered.  Sorry, but it hasn't.  On the positive side?  Several brands have reduced their production to match real world demand.  The problem?  There was way too much product sloshing around that had to be flushed through the system.  And short of crushing watches?  That means our old friend the grey market.  The good news?  Lot's of affordable (let's call them price adjusted to reality) watches will now be available!  And hey, don't worry about the warranty!  You'll get some chicken-shit after market warranty for your pennies on the dollar purchase.  

It is a tired, skipped record from this d-jay, but simply put.  If you buy a grey market watch at a bargain price?  Don't lose your shit when that watch is worth even less than you paid for it when you are hoping to re-sell it.  Along with the grey market?  The Sunk Cost Trap is alive an well!

Enjoy your watches, and spend your money carefully!

The Five Stages of Grief and Loss

Well, it would seem that the time has come for the industry and event organizers to put on their "Big Boy Pants" and start dealing with reality.  But change is painful, and loss - even the loss of a perceived norm or way of doing things can be just as painful.  After being jilted by two of their most doting of suitors, the SIHH put out the statement you see below.  So let's unpack this note from the big hearted people at that warm and fuzzy organization, the SIHH, in light of what is traditionally referred to as the five stages of Grief and Loss-

SIHH 2020

Geneva, 27 September 2018 - The SIHH takes note the departures of Audemars Piguet and Richard Mille from 2020 onwards, in line with the strategic repositioning of their distribution channels.

The Exhibitors’ Committee, with the support of the Foundation of Haute Horlogerie’s Board, confirms its firm intention to pursue the SIHH’s core purpose, which now extends beyond a trade salon with a distribution focus, to encompass a true culture and experience-led communications platform for all professionals and end customers of Haute Horlogerie.

Building on the success of its recent editions, the salon will in 2019, 2020 and beyond, continue to pursue its mission, closely aligned to the needs of exhibiting Maisons (currently numbering 35 brands) by building on and extending new services, new experiences, and expert content tailored to all audiences in the Haute Horlogerie community, who regard the Salon as a must attend event. 

Historic Maisons 2019

A.Lange & Söhne, Audemars Piguet, Baume & Mercier, BOVET, Cartier, Girard-Perregaux, Greubel Forsey, Hermès, IWC, Jaeger-LeCoultre, Montblanc, Panerai, Parmigiani Fleurier, Piaget, Richard Mille, Roger Dubuis, Ulysse Nardin, Vacheron Constantin.

Carré des Horlogers 2019

Armin Strom, Christophe Claret, Chronométrie Ferdinand Berthoud, DeWitt, élégante by F.P.Journe, Grönefeld, H. Moser & Cie, Hautlence, HYT, Kari Voutilainen, Laurent Ferrier, MB&F, Ressence, Romain Gauthier, RJ, Speake-Marin, Urwerk.

Salon International de la Haute Horlogerie

Palexpo - Geneva – Switzerland - January 14-17, 2019


Well, let's unpack this one, shall we?

It's important to note that the five stages are not always experienced in the same order, but for those of you playing along at home, the stages are:

1. Denial and isolation

The Exhibitors’ Committee, with the support of the Foundation of Haute Horlogerie’s Board, confirms its firm intention to pursue the SIHH’s core purpose, which now extends beyond a trade salon with a distribution focus, to encompass a true culture and experience-led communications platform for all professionals and end customers of Haute Horlogerie. 

Yeah, not so much.  The SIHH is a private party, let's not delude ourselves to the contrary.  Having said that, they are clearly hoping that the attendance will justify this boast, but until they have a more democratic (i.e. fair and balanced approach to press accreditation) it remains to be seen whether AP and RM will have any type of regret in leaving.

AP and RM are big, shiny brands that love the spotlight.  My hunch is that it was time to renew their contract, they weren't thrilled with the terms, and they decided to punt. 

2. Anger
The SIHH takes note the departures of Audemars Piguet and Richard Mille from 2020 onwards, in line with the strategic repositioning of their distribution channels. 

Translation?  Why did those (insert expletive here) go and make these two separate announcements without letting us "package" the news?
 
3. Bargaining
Building on the success of its recent editions, the salon will in 2019, 2020 and beyond, continue to pursue its mission, closely aligned to the needs of exhibiting Maisons (currently numbering 35 brands) by building on and extending new services, new experiences, and expert content tailored to all audiences in the Haute Horlogerie community, who regard the Salon as a must attend event.  

I'm calling bullshit on this one.  The organizers of the SIHH are about as inclusive a group as a 1970s era country club in the suburban US. 

Courtesy of Wikipedia

I think that they should hand out "Members Only" jackets as giveaways, but I don't think that they'd get the irony.

The organizers of the SIHH, and in particular the US agency that "vets" the journalists who hope to attend are a rather snotty, myopic bunch and while I did finally get a somewhat begrudging invitation a few years back, I had absolutely no desire at that point to attend.  And strange to relate, I have had no desire to attend since.  Let's just say I'm from Missouri, you need to show me that your show is worth 3 days vacation from work, round trip airfare and accommodation in a very expensive city.  I have seen nothing in the coverage of the SIHH that has made me change my view.
 

4. Depression
Will be an ongoing experience.


5. Acceptance  
Will clearly be a work in progress.  But keep in mind that these are the first two brands to up stakes, it is not beyond the scope of possibility that there will be more.
 

We Sail Tonight for Singapore - The Voyage Continues

Numbers, they say, don't lie.  But sometimes they fib.

Courtesy of FH

Yes, numbers are up.  EXPORT numbers.  And interesting to relate, the US is again up.  Which makes sense because the big three as well as Rolex and Patek have subsidiaries here and they can "park" a lot of watches here.  In speaking with my friends in the retail sector, they are not exactly going out and buying a new sports car.  And some once very influential and successful retailers are seriously contemplating whether or not they will make it through this year.  Because what we often fail to understand when we read the (insert the metaphor of your choice) love-story-comeback-feel good-triumph story put forth by some of my colleagues in the 4th and 5th Estates is the reality that exports are not the same as sales, and more importantly, the increase in exports is very likely to level off fairly dramatically once the new SWISSNESS standards are fully in force.  December 31st the clock will strike midnight, and many of the small and the mighty in the industry will watch the  stock that does not meet the standard still remaining within the Swiss borders turn into pumpkins. 

And apart from that, there is one very curious statistic that I will share, the phenomenal improvement shown by that titan of watch sales... Singapore! 
Mighty Singapore showed an uptick of, wait for it, +25%!  Point of full-disclosure, I have never been to Singapore, but I suffer from a distinct sense of incredulity in believing that the demand in Singapore is that great right now.  Is the Grey and Soft Grey market demand great?  Sorry, silly question ; )

And now a little inside baseball for all of you who think I might be full of it, ever wonder how the grey-market and soft-grey market always seem to have so much product?  And have you ever heard the near comedic response of brand managers and their Swiss and German ownership claiming to be just as shocked and concerned as their frustrated and pissed-off retail partners?  Well, to quote that other great commentator on the watch industry - Gabriel Byrne as Tom Reagan (Millers Crossing) -

“I’d worry a lot less if I thought you were worrying enough.”

Here's hoping that I'm wrong.

Patrimony Collection Excellence Platine

From Vacheron Constantin -

Courtesy of Vacheron Constantin

A 42 mm platinum case houses the manual winding 4400 AS movement.

Courtesy of Vacheron Constantin

Here are the pertinents -

Patrimony Collection Excellence Platine 

References:

1110U/000P-B306
Hallmark of Geneva certified timepieces 

Calibre:

4400 AS
Developed and manufactured by Vacheron Constantin 
Mechanical, manual-winding
28.6 mm (12’’’1⁄2) diameter, 2.8 mm thick 
Approximately 65 hours of power reserve
4Hz (28,800 vibrations/hour)
127 components
21 jewels

Indications:

Hours, minutes
Small seconds at 6 o’clock 

Case:

950 Platinum
42 mm diameter, 7.65 mm thick
Transparent sapphire crystal caseback 
Water-resistance tested at a pressure of 3 bar 
(approx. 30 meters) 

Dial 

950 Platinum
Sand-blasted
“Pt950” hallmark between 4 and 5 o’clock
Convex external zone with circular “pearl” minute-track 
18K white gold applied hour-markers 

Strap:

Dark blue Mississippiensis alligator leather with alligator 
leather inner shell, hand-stitched with platinum 950 and silk, 
saddle-finish, large square scales 

Buckle:

Platinum 950 buckle
Polished half Maltese cross-shaped 

Limited edition of 150 individually numbered pieces 
“N°X/150” engraved on caseback

 

The Hunger Games, Part the Second

I'm sure you've already read about it, but to confirm -
Georges Kern has "dropped his letter" at Richemont HQ.

Unlike many resignations and appointments, the news braking this Bastille Day has taken a lot of us by surprise, including me.  But when you spool it out and look at it in its (current) entirety, the pieces do fit together rather nicely.

Courtesy of tick-talk time

So let's start at the beginning with the announcement put out earlier today from (I suspect) a very harried PR department:

Richemont announces resignation of Head of Watchmaking, Marketing and Digital
 
14 July 2017

Richemont regrets to announce the resignation with immediate effect of Mr Georges Kern. Mr Kern was Head of Watchmaking, Marketing and Digital. He has stepped down from the Senior Executive Committee and the Group Management Committee and will no longer be standing for election to the Board of Directors of Compagnie Financière Richemont SA at the forthcoming annual general meeting of shareholders.

Commenting on Mr Kern's decision, Mr Johann Rupert, Chairman, said:

Quote
Georges has been offered an interesting opportunity to become an entrepreneur.
He has had a very successful career at IWC Schaffhausen and we wish him well.
Unquote

Richemont's watchmaking, marketing and digital activities will report to the Senior Executive Committee.

But there is, it would seem, another twist in the tale.  Later in the day it was intimated (albeit not by anyone willing to go officially on the record) that Mr. Kern would be taking control of another testosterone fueled brand, Breitling.  This reporting came from the folks at Le Temps.  Attempts to get either confirmation or denial from Mr. Kern were apparently unsuccessful as of this morning (Swiss time).

Okay, so that's the obviously knowable, but let's dig into the context.  Mr. Kern did a very good job with IWC, and I suspect that in the palace court that is Richemont HQ, there has been more than a little jockeying for position.  With the announcement of a "twin towers" approach which resulted in booting both Mr. Kern and Mr. Lambert upstairs into Richemont's newly re-jiggered corporate structure, it seemed that the one who could be the most Machiavellian would probably emerge as the CEO of the entire Richemont group.  And very often when you have two people who want the same thing, it can very rapidly become a war of attrition.

The other thing to consider is what Charles Horton Cooley termed the Looking Glass Self.  Essentially, that the way we view and value ourselves is, more often than not, a reflection of how we feel we are perceived by others.   When you have been at the forefront of a fairly successful brand, it can be a bit of a let-down to no longer be the face of that brand.   Being in charge of several brands gives you status for sure, but it is not nearly as sexy as the red carpet.  Breitling has historically been ready, willing and able to throw money around and pursue celebrity "chums".  And in fairness to Mr. Kern, he does posses a gift for the "grip and grin".

It is important to really understand that although this news is "breaking" for the rest of us, this was clearly put in motion some time ago.  From time to time impulsive decisions are made in the heat of passion, but I do not think this is one of those times.  This has clearly been building, and more than likely Mr. Kern was just looking for the best possible sortie (and that would be the French definition).

So if the reports are true, and Mr. Kern is on his way to Grenchen, then it marks an interesting step in his career.  As to the "entrepreneurial" aspect of this step, it is also unclear as to whether Mr. Kern raided his piggy bank or whether he was granted some equity in exchange for taking on the challenge.  

My only request would be that he remove the fighter jet from the Grenchen roundabout just off the highway... it's an eyesore.

 

A Return to Common Sense

Courtesy of Vacheron Constantin

This is the new Patrimony, referred to by Vacheron Constantin as the Patrimony small model.  And I can only speak for myself, but I think that this might be the first sign from one of the big dogs that they get, understand, and are adapting to the realities of the situation they are in.

The case is of pink gold and measures a sane, rational and practical 36 mm in diameter and 8.1 mm thick.  

The dial is silvered opaline and the indices are also of pink gold.

The movement is Caliber 2450 Q6.  It is self-winding and offers 40 hours of power reserve.   Hours, minutes, seconds and date at 6 o'clock.

You want this watch - and you should!  36 mm is a realistic diameter for a dress watch.  It is suitable for both men and women, and frankly?  You don't need tons SKUs, you just need one or two god ones!

Well done Vacheron - let's hope this is a sign of more sane things to come.

Here are the pertinents -

Patrimony small model

References
4100U/000R-B180: brown leather strap 4100U/001R-B180: purple shiny leather strap Hallmark of Geneva certified timepieces

Caliber
2450 Q6
Developed and manufactured by Vacheron Constantin 

Mechanical, self-winding
26.2 mm (11’’’1⁄4) diameter, 3.6 mm thick 

Approximately 40 hours of power reserve
4 Hz (28,800 vibrations/hour)
196 components
27 jewels

Indications
Hours, minutes Central seconds 

Date 

 

Case

18K 5N pink gold
36 mm diameter, 8.1 mm thick
Transparent sapphire crystal caseback
Water-resistance tested at a pressure of 3 bar (approx. 30 
meters) 

Dial

Silvered opaline
Convex external zone with circular “pearl” minute-track 
18K 5N pink gold applied hour-markers 

Strap

Dark brown Mississippiensis alligator leather with 
alligator leather inner shell, hand-stitched, saddle-finish, 
large square scales
Purple Mississippiensis alligator shiny leather with alsavel 
inner shell, stitched-tip, square scales

Buckle

18K 5N pink gold buckle
Polished half Maltese cross-shaped

 

 

The Quai de l’Ile in Blue

From Vacheron Constantin -

Courtesy of Vacheron Constantin

Here are the pertinents -

Quai de l’Ile 

References 

4500S/000A-B364 – Blue dial
Hallmark of Geneva certified timepiece 

Calibre 

5100/1
Developed and manufactured by Vacheron Constantin Mechanical, self-winding
30.6 mm (13’’’ 1⁄4) diameter, 4.7 mm thick Approximately 60 hours of power reserve 4 Hz (28,800 vibrations/hour)
172 components
37 jewels

Indications 

Hours and minutes Central seconds Date 

Case  

Stainless steel

41 mm diameter, 11.75 mm thick
Transparent sapphire crystal caseback
Water-resistance tested at a pressure of 3 bar (approx. 30
meters)

Dial

Blue opaline
Sapphire disc with date indication
Arabic numerals and indexes crafted in white luminescent material
18K gold hour & minute hands and date highlighted with white luminescent material 

Strap 

Blue Mississippiensis alligator leather with blue alsavel lining, hand-stitched, large square scales
Delivered with a second strap in blue rubber 

Clasp

Stainless steel triple-blade folding clasp with push-pieces Polished half Maltese cross-shaped

March...

Would seem to be an improvement -

Courtesy of the FH

The March numbers are in, and as noted by the FH they seem to be a bit better.  But interesting to relate that the FH has taken to tempering their feedback of late, stating essentially that although this is an improvement, don't read too much into it.

But there are a few other indicators out there that might shed a wee bit of sunshine.  Per some reports, the total number of retail store closures in North America has been down this first quarter.  And that is a potentially positive development as well.  But these same outlets also report that the number of NEW North American retail stores is also down. 

Obviously, it is in the best interest of everyone involved if the industry rebounds.  But this has been a beat-down of nearly epic proportions for brands, distributors, retailers and yes, even customers.  A beat-down the likes of which we haven't seen since the "Quartz Crisis".  And while there were real lessons learned from that paradigm shift, it remains to be seen if this current paradigm shift will illicit the same level of introspection at the higher echelons.

And while the rate of decline is slowing, it does not necessarily mean that we are in blue sky territory. What it most likely means is that the rubber has finally hit the road and at least some of the brands, distributors and retail store owners are starting to realize that things are most likely not going to rebound back to the level that they were.  Production, sales forecasts and pricing might finally be getting closer scrutiny.  The perceived need to carry such large staffs both in Switzerland and in the "outposts" might be getting a second look as well. 

And we have anecdotal evidence that clearly shows that brands and those dependent upon those brands are starting to change their attitudes and approaches.  Some for sound business reasons, some just out of panic:

BaselWorld - will be reduced by 2 full days with participation fees (reportedly) to be reduced to reflect this change.  With attendance down again for retailers and journalists, this was most likely a very cold cup of espresso for the BaselWorld organizers to swallow, but the numbers just don't lie.  It was a bold decision to take, and one that I agree with.

SIHH - 'nuff said.  

Brand Managers - several found themselves let go just before and just after BaselWorld.  This is not exactly a new development, but the level and depth of these cuts was a little more marked this year. So brands are going to be REALLY looking at who is performing and who isn't.  Tough love time.

The "Soft Grey" Market - well known brands are clearly not selling at the level that the could or should, and growing portions of their stocks are being dumped into group buy sites.  Merchandise has to be moved, and this seems to be the most acceptable of a lot of really unacceptable solutions.

And then, as always, there will be holdouts:
 
The Brand Boutique - for a few independent brands, there is still a monumental disconnect on the realities of their given situations and they continue to insist on dropping more and more money into a boutique that can never really pay for itself.  For a group brand?  No big deal, it is a marketing expense.  For an independent brand?  It is an ego stroke and a fairly clear disregard for reality.  And it also reflects the Sunk Cost Fallacy (please refer back to the Sunk Cost Trap - http://www.tempusfugit.watch/2017/04/the-sunk-cost-trap.html for further examples) that is at work at the highest levels of some of these brands.  When you have sunk as much money as some independents have into these boutiques, it becomes harder and harder to walk away.

Now contrary to the frantic assertions of a certain watch industry writer, I am not the Antichrist.  I truly take no satisfaction in seeing the industry suffer.  But I also believe that just because you trim a donkey's ears, that doesn't suddenly give you a Shetland Pony.  

Some of the industry is moving to adapt, and some particularly sharp operators have been a few steps ahead and have done okay even during this downturn.  The real challenge now is for the remaining denizens of planet "Watch" to decide if they are ready to adapt or not.  

Because while a reduced loss is better than an increased one, it is still a loss.