Greeting Card Holidays and Unrealistic Expectations

I used to sell watches. I also used to write the copy used by other people to help them sell their watches. And I was not above weaponizing FOMO to sell watches. I remember getting the sales memos from Tag, Baume, Cartier and others pleading with us to push watches priced $1,800 and up for Valentine's, Mother's, Father's and every other Hallmark Greeting Card holiday out there - both real or imagined. I once, only half joking as the sword of corporate retribution was dangling over my neck, penned this tagline for a diamond-encrusted piece:
"She carried you for nine months"
And for the man who brought you into this world, and can take you back out?
"He gave you life, consider this a meager thank you".

And as we are rapidly approaching "Dads and Grads" season, the Tempus Fugit inbox is full-to- bursting with watches priced around the price point of an entry level Toyota and the request that I include Watch X in my Mother's Day Gift Guide. This of course would mean I would have to bump my advertorials for Kay Jewelers and 1-800 Flowers! In other words, it's clear that the guys and gals in these PR agencies have not read Tempus Fugit before reaching out to for a Mother's Day favor.

Now curious to relate, if you were to visit the TAG Heuer or Hublot booth at any watch fair, you will see my picture carefully hidden at the reception desk with the instructions:
"Under no circumstances should you let this guy in, even if he has an appointment!"
Well, now that Mr. Biver has a less active role, you never know, I might get to see the inside of the booths once more ; )

And even more curious to relate? I have been watching Mr. Biver's interviews from a year or two ago and the one thing he keeps coming back to is gifting watches. What I loved about his comments about this were that these were carefully thought out purchases, with real intention and consideration for the person he was giving the watches to. Also important to note - these were significant event/holidays like birthdays and anniversaries. 

In other words, this was not a knee-jerk reaction to some feverish pitch to BUY, SPEND MONEY!

So, being the contrarian that I am, I would like to encourage something, well, contrary to the marketing brain trust of Watch Town -

Buy watches as gifts! But not just any gift or just any holiday, because then it ceases to be special. Buy a great watch for a graduation gift! Buy your dad a watch you know he would love but would never get for himself. Buy your partner a watch when they get that big promotion. These are all great reasons to head down to your independent retailer and buy something special. And hey - why not engrave it? And one other thing? A great watch does not necessarily mean expensive. It means that you thought about what the person RECEIVING the watch would like, not just what the PR agency told you to get them. Whether it be a Swatch or a Rolex, make it significant, and make it special. If you just feel the need to give something because the greeting card companies are telling you need to give something? Well, then give your Mother, Father, partner something else that is special - give them your time.

Curious to Relate

So this will no doubt come as a shock to many, but despite my railings, I do quite like the Hublot Big Bang, and despite the fact that Jean-Claude Biver had a full head of hair before he started reading Tempus Fugit and is rumored to have had a Henki voodoo doll on his desk... I honestly feel that it is a pretty cool watch, and he is probably one of the smartest people in the watch business, EVER. I stand by both statements.

And if I had the money? If I picked the lucky six numbers and Lotto changed my life financially? I'd honestly plop down my money for this one -

Courtesy of Hublot

Now a few things about me -

1. I live under no illusions that I am on the A (or some days, even C) list of "noted watch writers".

2. I do not charge brands to appear on Tempus Fugit and I do not typically have advertising (there have been a few short-term exceptions for advertising). Writing about watches is not my vocation. I am a social worker. The organization I work for provides support and help to people who would otherwise fall through society's cracks. If you live on the North Shore and need help with heating for your home, you are homeless, you have an elderly parent who needs help in their home, you need training to enter or re-enter the workforce or you have recently arrived in the US and you need to learn English so that you can get a job and begin your new life here? We are here for you. We are not flashy, we run on a shoe string.

3. While I cannot get behind some decisions that Hublot has made in terms of PR (the less said about Floyd Mayweather the better), they did support Lang Lang's efforts to combat the poaching of endangered animals, and they continue to do some positive things - including their support of Sorai.

Some more about me - back in 2003 I was particularly good at selling Hublot watches at Tourneau in San Francisco - and this was before Mr. Biver came along and (if we are honest) really made Hublot as big and successful as it came to be. It didn't just happen by accident. But it also is a brand clearly positioned to people who enjoy a certain lifestyle. And honestly? There is nothing wrong with that.

So truthfully? I am not Hublot's demographic. And I suppose I can live with that ; )
Ultimately, we should all simply like what we like.

When you write about watches, you frequently get "typecasted". But in fairness, when something speaks to you, it speaks to you. And the Big Bang Unico Titanium Blue speaks to me.

Now if like me, you are planning on how to spend your Lotto winnings and want the specs, here they are -

CASE
REFERENCE
411.NX.5179.RX
DIAMETER
45 mm
CASE
Satin-finished and Polished Titanium
BEZEL
Satin-finished and Polished Titanium with 6 H-shaped Titanium Screws
WATER RESISTANCE
100m or 10 ATM
CRYSTAL
Sapphire with Anti-reflective Treatment
DIAL
Matte Blue Skeleton

MOVEMENT
MOVEMENT
HUB1242 UNICO Manufacture Self-winding Chronograph Flyback Movement 

with Column Wheel
POWER RESERVE
72 Hours

STRAP & CLASP
STRAP
Black and Blue Structured Lined Rubber Straps
CLASP
Titanium Deployant Buckle Clasp

The Success of Biver - a Possible Alternative Theory

I am going to kick this off with a fairly basic 
thesis -
In terms of the watch business, nobody has had a bigger influence, caused a greater paradigm shift, and captured more of the watch world's attention than Jean-Claude Biver.  In many ways, and particularly in light of the latest quagmire that SWATCH and the Hayek heirs are currently dog-paddling in, I feel particularly comfortable with this statement.  I further feel empowered to say this as on a personal level, as I know that he is no great fan of mine.  So while this is not coming from a place of ambivalence, it is also not coming from a 
brownie-hound ; )

I just finished watching a film on Amazon - In Search of Greatness -
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8236398/

It intertwines quite neatly with David Epstein's book -

Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World

Mr. Epstein also features fairly heavily in the film.

If, like most of us, find yourself with some free time in the upcoming days and weeks, I encourage you to check both out.  What both the film and the book focus on is that contrary to popular belief, some of the most successful adult athletes did not specialize or focus too specifically on their ultimate sport until much later than most people would assume.

Okay, so what's that got to do with Jean-Claude Biver and watches?  Well, if you really think about it, Mr. Biver did not over-specialize.  Simply put, he dipped his toe in several different pools within the watch industry.  Sales, marketing, etc.

One thing that the watch business seems to be quite keen on, is to continually promote sales people into management, and even offer them the head chair at the big table.  And what the success of Jean-Claude Biver and the lack thereof for several "specialists" is testament to, is the fact that in an age of over-specialization, the generalists tend to find more success.  Now, this is not to say that Mr. Biver is a novice or a neophyte by any stretch of the imagination.  And in many ways he has been a true pioneer.  What it is to say, is that the success of Mr. Biver, and ultimately the brands that he oversaw, was an open attitude because he was not restrained or confined by dogma, habit or specialization.  Some of it, like at Blancpain and later Hublot?  He had to make up as he went.

Specialists have failed, or at least not seen the same level of success for myriad reasons.  And it is also fair to say that Mr. Biver's success was also due to a myriad of reasons.

1.  Curiosity - he clearly had the desire to try several different things.

2.  Ambition - he wanted to have his own brand.

3.  Luck - Blancpain was available, and he had the vision to see that bridging a dormant brand with an active movement maker, Blancpain would be something different.

4.  Vision - he was willing to see beyond the obvious.

5.  Persistence - he could have retired and lived off his savings a long time ago, but he kept coming back.

Very clearly, Mr. Biver is not someone you come across every day in any industry.  He is, however, a great example of the triumph of the non-specialist.

What David Epstein Could Teach the Watch Industry

I first heard of David Epstein on Dave Chang's 
podcast - The Dave Chang Show.  And the fact that I first got dialed into Mr. Epstein's thoughts on the value of generalization over specialization.  I have dipped into his book - Range:  Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World.

Courtesy of Macmillan

And I feel it was particularly appropriate to learn about Mr. Epstein's work on a podcast that is, ostensibly, about about food and food culture.

My main takeaway from the podcast and the bits I've been able to digest directly is that not unlike Bob Dylan's message that the "the loser nowWill be later to win", the times are indeed A- Changin'.

Now for my part, I probably really got my start on the periphery, as a fan, participating on a limited basis in discussion forums.  I then stumbled into a job at Tourneau in San Francisco, and later with DOXA. A blog led to a media business which led to a consulting concern that touches on sales, marketing, media, production, and on and on.  So it's fair to say, this speaks to me.  

So gentle readers, allow me to share with you what the watch industry could learn from David Epstein -

“Overspecialization can lead to collective tragedy even when every individual separately takes the most reasonable course of action.”
David Epstein

I see this a lot in the watch business and saw it painfully so with two former darlings of the business who collapsed less than three years from their first products were delivered to the public. But it goes deeper than this and in fairness to the former Kronaby and Klokers, both of these brands were led by people with experience in consumer products. And in fact, you can see it in the brands that have been through some particularly rough waters.  GP, UN, Eterna are wonderful brands that in the past have suffered from "Silo Syndrome".  Essentially that they were staffed with a bunch of specialists who were discouraged from collaborating.  While it is tempting to tell people to "stick to their lane" when you feel the sole of a foot on your toes, it might, in fact, be worth a listen.


“We learn who we are in practice, not in theory.” 
David Epstein

What I'm about to say is going to sound mean, and it is not meant to.  It is easy to say that a leopard can't change its spots, and I think that is a gross misunderstanding that people, particularly in the watch business have.  Some of the sharpest operators in the industry also keep the lowest profile. As mentioned here before, it's inevitable to fail. The trick is not to make a habit of it.  And failure offers a wealth of lessons. Some of these lessons can be highly personal, where we need to examine how we handled various situations and how we might have done things differently. 

Put another way, words are great, mottos are great, and a good looking CV is just that.    Now, how then do we explain the serial recycling of executives, sales reps, PR firms from one brand to the next and back again?  It actually goes back to overspecialization.  What Moneyball referred to as the "look test".  In essence, only "baseball people" could understand the game and how to work within it.  And what Bill James, Billy Beane and others proved is that just wasn't so.  

And the watch business is unique in the short memories it instills in many of its gatekeepers.  People who entered the industry from others quickly forget that fact when they start running a brand.  Suddenly, only "watch people" (i.e. industry veterans) can possibly understand what it takes.  And as history will show, these folks were then cycled through and spit out of the formal industry, and those who managed to remain had to create their own opportunities.  Which either proves their own misguided theories, or shows that they were, perhaps, victims of over specialization.


“You have people walking around with all the knowledge of humanity on their phone, but they have no idea how to integrate it. We don’t train people in thinking or reasoning.”
David Epstein


I am actually pretty grateful for this, because otherwise I would not have 

clients ; )

This actually comes back to the "Silo Syndrome". Being an expert is great, but unless you can see the bigger picture, it is increasingly harder to adapt to it. As brands continue to contract in size and need to become more nimble, the ability to think outside of your cubicle becomes more and more essential.

“Almost none of the students in any major showed a consistent understanding of how to apply methods of evaluating truth they had learned in their own discipline to other areas.” 
David Epstein


See above.

“The challenge we all face is how to maintain the benefits of breadth, diverse experience, interdisciplinary thinking, and delayed concentration in a world that increasingly incentivizes, even demands, hyperspecialization” 
David Epstein


So let's talk about brand management. Typically, brand managers are promoted through the ranks of the sales department. It makes sense on a lot of levels, no sales means not brand. But even at a regional level, let's say North America, you need to have the flexibility to weigh in on all aspects of the operation. I can't tell you how many meetings I have been to where the brand manager will pass the buck by saying things like -

"Oh, that's marketing. You'll have to talk to...".

This is not to say that you should not have department heads, and people with responsibilities. But really that conversation should go more like this -

"Oh, let's (collaboratively) talk about this with the marketing team..."

What currently happens in a lot of brands is a fundamental disconnect from certain functions that they either feel uncomfortable with or are disinterested with. Say what you want about him, but Jean-Claude Biver was perhaps the first (and still one of the only) brand manager/brand leader/CEOs who made a point of involving himself beyond just sales. Towards the end of his tenure that trailed off, but there was a time where I suspect Hublot was an extension of his central nervous system.

“As each man amassed more information for his own view, each became more dogmatic, and the inadequacies in their models of the world more stark.” 
David Epstein


Too many examples to site.  


“In a wicked world, relying upon experience from a single domain is not only limiting, it can be disastrous.” 
David Epstein


It is important to have a centralized plan for a global brand.  But there needs to be an understanding of locality/reality.  Simple example - F1 is, by and large, not a thing in the US, no matter how much a brand would like it to be, it just isn't.  Neither is rugby.  If we're very honest, neither is sailing, neither is Chinese language cinema.  And yet, I keep getting press releases about partnerships like this.  

And an even starker example could be found at the SWATCH group and the ETA/COMCO fiasco. When you do not consider the possibility that things just might not go your way?  It can be fatal.

Rest assured, ETA is not going out of business, and I have no doubt that some agreement/accommodation will eventually be reached. But in the here and now, several of ETA's more well-heeled customers are having to lump it, and if the word around the campfires in the Jura are to be believed, some loyalists might be looking for a new camp to call home.

Waiting for Biver... The Over/Under

So despite what you might have read in another well-known outlet, I am more and more of the belief that the rumors I heard simmering while I was in Switzerland a few weeks ago are perhaps more accurate than the posturing of a self-proclaimed authority.

You may remember such Biver "Farewell to Arms" platitudes as:

Leaving and focusing on passing on my knowledge.

Ending retirement to come back and run Tag Heuer.

Focusing on trying to save Zenith.

Leaving for health reasons.

And the most recent - 

I am really not coming back.

And... needless to say, some of us long term Biver watchers are not 100% convinced that this is really going to be it.  

I am taking the "under" on this one, and guessing that he is going to be back sooner rather than later.  

As I get older, and my father's own mortality recedes farther and farther behind me in the rear view mirror, I have come to realize that what spouses and family members often categorize and label as a character flaw (being a workaholic) is, in fact, just someone who is (to some extent) in love with work.  That perhaps their work defines (at least to them) who they are.  That work for them is not just an activity, but a state of mind, which in turn is a state of being.

I don't claim to know or understand Mr. Biver any more than I know or understand the guy on the corner who asks me for my spare change.  Not unlike Ralph Lauren there is a very public Mr. Biver, and another guy who runs watch brands.  And in fairness, we all of us have some sort of duality of self.  I think what I am saying is that the watch game is (I suspect) a bit too ingrained into his persona for him to completely walk away.  The ties with LVMH have a few months to go until they are completely severed.  And I think we will see him again.  Now whether that is as the person who will shepherd a Patek change of ownership, the father who will help his son launch or take over his own brand, or simply launch a new thing completely his own without taking over?  Well that part still remains to be fleshed out.

And then again?  Maybe he really means it this time and he is done.
  
We shall wait, and we shall see.

Where's Biver?

So I guess this is one of those "what if Paul is dead" type of posts.  But in fact, it's more along the lines of - what if Jean-Claude Biver didn't really retire?

Shamelessly borrowed from the word-wide infoweb

Okay, in fairness I have already placed my bet that Mr. Biver is no more likely to retire than I am to buy a Shinola watch.  For those tuning in late?  Let's just say I am sometimes unable to discern the difference between fecal matter and the time telling products produced under the Shinola banner.

So if we go with the premise that Jean-Claude Biver is, to quote that other great commentator on watch industry - Kool Moe Dee: "Coming back, like Return of the Jedi", there are only a handful of brands that would really fit the ticket.  Although he looked "Tony Robbins Good" in his video interview a few weeks back, we have to accept the fact that he is not in his 40s or 50s anymore.  So where on the Monopoly board would he be likely to land?  Well, news dribbled out from a few sources today that a small family operation based in Geneva might be seeking new ownership, and while he would not be the owner, he might certainly be seen as the lynch pin in a potential purchase.

For a direct report, please have a quick look at this link from 
SwissInfo.CH - 

SWISSINFO.CH PATEK

Now there are those out there who would say that the whole point of Patek Philippe is that it is a family owned brand, privately held, yada yada yada, they would never, ever sell.  Well, maybe not so much.  Let's consider a few of life's less romantic realities -

Shamelessly borrowed from the world-wide infoweb

1. Very few people actually want to go on forever. Let's face it, even Sisyphus got worn down from the routine. Sooner or later, if you've been doing something a long enough time, you don't necessarily want to keep pushing that particular boulder up the hill.  Now there are those of you out there who would be scoobied by anyone who wouldn't want to lead the world's most famous watch brand.  But we have to remember that Thierry Stern was for all intents and purposes born into the business.  Nothing wrong with that, but for all we know, he has harbored a secret ambition to paint murals, become a master pastry chef, teach history... hell, maybe even be a ditch-digger.  But these have never really been possibilities.  If his kids are disinterested in following the family path, then who could blame him for looking for a reliable custodian and cashing in his chips while he still has a winning hand?

2.  Very few people actually want to go on forever, but a few do.  A bit of personal Henki history - my father was a bit of a living legend in his particular field of endeavor.  Now to be fair, the field of private club management (country club, city club, private club) is a fairly niche profession, but over the years he managed to cut a pretty wide swath through his chosen area.  He retired a little ahead of the typical age of 65, but went on to run his consulting business until he (quite literally) unexpectedly dropped dead at 71.  For a long time it was a lifestyle choice that I didn't necessarily understand, but looking at Jean-Claude Biver's choices, I see a lot of my father's career track and practises in him.  If we look at the industry, it tends to attract a rather unique "type of dude" and it is safe to say that Mr. Biver now casts a very long, living shadow.  He has done some fairly impressive things, and enjoyed some phenomenal success.  And it is safe to say that he is considered the authority by many.  It is also noteworthy that part of the reason why he has remained engaged is because he has not been at the same place the entire time.  He had his apprenticeship, built Blancpain, moved to Omega, reinvented Hublot, stoked the hype machine at Tag-Heuer, and now is footloose and fancy free.  And if I were being honest, has succeeded everywhere with the exception of Zenith.  But as Chuck Yeager (played by Sam Shepard) said in The Right Stuff - "Sometimes you get a pooch that can't be screwed, ya' know?"  Zenith is a brand that is greatly admired by purists and journalists, but will probably never be greatly appreciated by the people who are actually needed to actually purchase it.  To quote two knuckle-headed retailers I was recently trapped on an overseas junket with:  "Yeah, it's a great brand, but I have almost no margin on it.  I have to keep discounting it at least 30, sometimes 40 percent."  Not exactly what you want to hear from two big time watch retailers, even if in real life it's hard to distinguish them 
from -

Courtesy of Wikipedia

3.  Let's be honest, we're talking about a shit-ton of money.  Yes, there are money managers out there who know all about finance.  But, there are also plenty of very successful people from other industries that got involved with the faux fame of the watch business and had their heads handed to them.  And for the record, I am definitely in the Billy Beane / Barry Hearn school of management/ownership.  You absolutely need passion, but you also need common sense and self-control.  And most importantly?  You need a person with some gravitas.  Jean-Claude Biver is probably never going to invite me to his chateau for dinner.  I will be shocked if I ever get any more of the famous Biver cheese (unless it is the batch that went off), and I don't think he and I are going to be sipping pastis while playing boules somewhere in the Luberon.  But whether he is going to win a Noble Peace Prize or not, he is probably the one person you would want as the face of your "takeover" if you were, just for the sake of discussion, taking over Patek Philippe.

So let's see. 
 
Until then?  

We are still waiting for Biver.

Waiting for Biver...

“Estragon: We always find something, eh Didi, to give us the impression we exist?

Vladimir: Yes, yes, we're magicians.” 


Samuel Beckett, Waiting for Godot

So...

To be very clear, I am not a mind reader, soothsayer or knower of "unknowable" things.  But I like to think I am a pretty good judge of actions and motivations.  If you have not yet, I strongly encourage you to check out the excellent Hourglass video interview with Jean-Claude Biver -

Jean-Claude Biver / Hourglass

Let's hop in the "not-so-wayback" machine to where it was announced that due to health concerns, Jean-Claude Biver was stepping aside from his full-time responsibilities at LVMH.  At the time, many of my colleagues in the Fourth and Fifth Estates theorized that this was indeed the end.  Being the contrarian that I am, I bet the other way.

And while I am not calling the other participants in the office pool to collect yet, I am fairly certain I might be seeing some extra walking around money coming my way shortly.  If you watch the interview carefully, (hell, you don't even need to watch it that closely) you will see a physically and (again, let's be honest) emotionally different person than you heard from in the months previous.  In the interview, a lot of the conversation was about how passionate Mr. Biver is about watches, about his need not necessarily to work, but to do something he is passionate about.  And I gotta' be honest, he looks good... Tony Robbins good!

But I am not here to sanctify him, because the interview also revealed some of the contradictions that he presents. His comments on his special jury prize from the GPHG were telling.  He starts out genuinely touched and moved, and then the darker side creeps in as he mentions that he has felt that some of the people in the industry are (or have been) jealous of him and not necessarily liked him.  I am paraphrasing here, but you get the idea.  He also mentioned that he was touched that he still received a standing ovation, and that (again, paraphrasing here) folks put aside their feelings about him and recognized his contributions to the industry.

Now normally, you might just mention that you were chuffed, be gracious, accept your award and move on.  But if I am reading the tea leaves correctly, I think that this is a bit of a James Brown riff to  get ready for a "how 'ya like me now" moment in the near future.  Mr. Biver has a lot of achievements, and has done great things in the industry.  But having been on the receiving end of some of his less-than-warm and fuzzy feelings, I will simply say that I am not buying absolutely everything that is being sold here.  

I suspect that we will see him back in the next few weeks / months with something new.  And I certainly wish him Godspeed and the best of luck.  For better or worse, the industry needs its stars, and at the moment his is the biggest.  And as I said to some folks when asked just following his "semi-retirement" announcement back in September, I would be more surprised if he didn't come back with a new/different brand than if he stayed retired.  In the end, we are all our own person and we have to be true to ourselves.  And let's be honest, the press and fans love to follow him.  Personal feelings aside, the man has charisma, and his achievements speak for themselves.  So we will watch, and we will wait to see what he decides.

“Let's go." "We can't." "Why not?" "We're waiting for Godot.” Samuel Beckett, Waiting for Godot

Pre-Thanksgiving Leftovers

This piece first ran back in January.  I have had a bit of time to reflect on it, on the way the industry is moving and the continued pursuit of ideas that simply don't work.  I go on a few press junkets per year.  As I have a day job making the world safe for students to go to college, I am not on the "full-time circuit" that many of my more pampered colleagues travel.  I despise horse racing owing to the high number of horse casualties each year, so I am not weeping about not being on the Longines "go-to-guest-list".  I also work for a growing number of brands as a consultant and therefore appreciate time, effort and expense that a brand goes through to set such things up.  It is not a simple endeavor.  Long hours, too much hand-holding, little to no personal time, and you are always "on".

Press junkets can be fun, and by and large they give you a unique opportunity to bond with brand insiders and get a better understanding as to what makes them tick.  And when you are traveling together with other journalists, retailers and North American staff, you are somewhat trapped in a mobile "summer camp" of sorts.  And you get to see the good, the bad and the... well, not so attractive side of things.  But what continues to fascinate me is the obsessive need to follow shiny objects.  By that I mean the unfailingly understanding that if "influencer X" tells you that they are the "Dog's testicles", by golly you'll believe it!

While I am by no means a "lifer" in the watch game, I do feel that I can honestly say I have been to the city and I have seen the rodeo.  And there are a handful of people who are the real deal in terms of communication, knowledge, belief and appreciation.

Mike Pearson - Brand Evangelist Extraordinaire.  This guy could probably go to the Middle East and solve the crisis in an afternoon.  He is that friendly, that engaging, that engaged, and that passionate.  Any brand with any sense should be picking up the phone and trying to hire him.

Another Mike - Mike Margolis.  A man who proved that passion and commitment actually do count for something.

Manon Vauthier - A true loss to the watch world, she flew the flag for Eterna and Porsche Design, often single handed. The watch world's loss is the real world's gain.  Since leaving the world of horological communication she is doing amazing things by all accounts.

Xavier Markl - Someone who actually took the time to listen to everyone - from the small to the mighty.  GP would be a lot better off if he were still there, but sometimes companies have to learn the hard way.

Dan Lewis - Of all the people I have met in the industry, I have to say that Dan is someone I always look forward to seeing.  Honest, kind, patient, and someone I am truly proud to call my friend.

In many ways, these folks are the old guard.  Which seems weird because many of them came up at the same time as me.  Many have moved on to other things, a few are still there and in many ways demonstrating what can be right about the watch business.  

I guess I've gone on about the good, now let's re-heat the "not-so-good".

Happy Thanksgiving!

Influencer

This continues to be a hot topic, and it will continue to be so long as brand CEOs, managers and marketing folks keep dipping into the till to pay off popular boys and girls in the hopes of being relevant to the Millennial demographic. 

It has now seeped so far into the public awareness that various sources beyond the Urban Dictionary are defining it.

noun

1A person or thing that influences another.

‘he was a champion of the arts and a huge influencer of taste’

‘genetic factors are key influencers of your metabolic rate’

‘Frank's been a teacher and cultural influencer for years’

1.1Marketing A person with the ability to influence potential buyers of a product or service by promoting or recommending the items on social media.

‘influencers can add serious credibility to your brand’

Ultimately, brands will push the envelope as far as they can until the FTC or the public at large gets tired of the never-ending game of Manchurian Candidate Kabuki theater that is the "influencer trade".  It is false, it is deceptive and it is manipulative.  And I would like to think that the powers that be could be a little less disingenuous (lacking in frankness, candor, or sincerity; falsely or hypocritically ingenuous; insincere: Her excuse was rather disingenuous.).

But I'd like to propose that the guys and gals writing the checks at HQ consider a different way to go about this whole influencer thing.  Now back at the turn of the century, there were a few people out there who were influencers before such a thing existed.  And they did it in a way that was honest, forthright, and understandable.

While it is very true that Hublot became a sensation through the tireless work of Jean-Claude Biver, there was another guy who made Hublot and its story his passion, which then became his career.  While Mr. Biver can be thought of as the father of Hublot, in many ways Mr. Margolis is the American uncle.  This did not simply happen because Mr. Margolis demanded several thousand dollars to feature Hublot in his communication.  It happened because Mike was passionate about Hublot, and his passion was contagious.  And here is the key thing - YES - he became an employee of Hublot - but that did not make his passion any less real, or his communication any less honest.  In many ways it did just the opposite.  It was a way of saying - yes, I work for these folks but I'm also a fan.  And I am going to go to every event, pour coffee, shake hands and kiss babies to spread the word because I believe in it.  

It is safe to say that in many ways Mike was the prototypical brand evangelist for the watch industry.   And I think that is the way many watch buyers and fans would like to see things evolve.  

An instafamous influencer is a gun for hire.  While they may appear in a brand's SIHH video with other instafamous influencers, they will then turn around and cash the check for yet another brand to feature them in their social media feeds.  So if you bought brand X based on the desire to be like them, you will then not be like them in next week's instagram feed ; )

Guy Kawasaki became Apple's evangelist.  And in his way he did as much (and in some cases more) than Steve Jobs in spreading the good word.

At a time where things are in flux, the industry does not need more bullshit.  It needs more transparency.  And it needs some sincere people who are truly passionate about what they are promoting, not merely bottom feeding for the next instafamous check.

Bring back the evangelists!

Searching for Severin

Contrary to what some of my not-so-collegial colleagues would have you believe, I truly hate seeing people and companies fail.  But the news about Corum withdrawing from BaselWorld has deeper implications than many people want to consider.  While I realize that they are (at least on paper) separate entities, the fates of Corum and Eterna are now intimately intertwined.  And the current state of affairs at Eterna is (to be diplomatic) not great.  And that is simply on the watch front.  

The other, more concerning aspect is the fate of Eterna Movements.  The word around the campfire is that after some "away time", and a few tentative moves forward had been made Eterna and the Eterna Movements might do a "JEANRICHARD".  The "sleeping beauty" strategy is starting to become a somewhat worrying trend.  We often think back wistfully of similar "Prince Charming" happy endings in the 80s, where the plucky young entrepreneur gently kissed the slumbering watch brand, bringing it back to life, while Jim Kerr (Simple Minds) gently crooned in the background.  But I don't think that Jean-Claude Biver is going to be donning a Polo shirt and bomber jacket, regenerate a wedge hair style (complete with perma-gel) and ride in on his moped to save the day any time soon.  Because those (Blancpain and others) were brands that had been beaten, lay down their hands at the table and walked away.  They did not exist any longer.  But Corum and Eterna?  These are brands that have now passed through several sets of hands before landing at City Champ.  And the sense that many of us are getting is that City Champ can wait it out hoping for their own Prince Charming to come in and buy them out of the current quagmire.  

And as I often say when acting as a mediator in my dispute resolution practice - we didn't get here overnight.  This didn't just happen.  This is a series of decisions - some good, some clearly bad, that have led to the situation these brands are now in.  And I turn back again to that (seemingly) crazy guy who took a fairly basic idea, priced it at an appealing level, and brought Corum back to life.  The Bubble that caught everyone's imagination was not a $5,000 watch.  It was much more attainable.  And it sold.  I realize that Corum is much more than the Bubble, but the Bubble is somewhat emblematic about the dysfunction in the decision making paradigm.  The belief that Corum must be priced at very high levels in relation to what the other brands are selling for, has put them in a bit of an unworkable corner.  The result?  Too many SKUs languishing, unsold.  Severin Wunderman was unique in that although he was rich, successful, and in later years lived a lifestyle many would be envious of, he understood what people wanted.  And he also understood pricing.

Two things -

One - I don't claim to have any special "insider" knowledge about the current situation at any of these brands, and I have been wrong before.  But I also can read the tea leaves well enough to know that when news stops flowing, new models cease being released, shows are cancelled... let's just say it raises more questions than it answers.

Two - Running a watch brand is hard, hard work.  Watch enthusiasts all think that they can do it, and do it better than the people doing it.  We are, of course, wrong.  Having said that, the watch industry is also an incredibly forgiving industry which tends to attract people with a certain degree of moral flexibility, where people are promoted, fail, crash, and come back reborn multiple times.  And it is not to say that people don't deserve second (or third, fourth and fifth) chances.  It is to say that when you continue to pursue the same path, strategy, philosophy even though it has failed repeatedly, then perhaps you need to rethink the entire premise of how you do business.

If I were City Champ?  Well, if the stories are to be believed, they have plenty of cash.  They do not need for their Swiss investments to start shitting Tiffany cufflinks right away.  On the other hand, they are not stupid.  The smart play would be to simply not put any more money into either of these brands until they can either straighten themselves out, or find a buyer who is looking for a hobby to dump his/her millions into.  

We all wanted something better for Corum and Eterna, and you never know, there could indeed be a happy ending out there.  So get your hair gel out, and bust out that soundtrack to Sixteen Candles!

Biver Leave's the Party - Maybe this Time for Sure...

So you've read it everywhere else, the last emperor is perhaps now finally, really, actually leaving the party.  Well, this time seems more likely than previous retirements.  

Shamelessly borrowed from the world-wide info-web

But to quote that other great commentator on the watch industry, Lieutenant Columbo - 
"Something's still bothering me..."

So I'm going straight up on the "Columbo-tip", and ask a few questions that are, perhaps, not being asked elsewhere.

I held off putting anything out there yesterday because, frankly, I felt that there was more to this than an ill executive stepping aside to focus on his health. Moreover, it was the guy's birthday. A little respect was in order. But remember, we've been down this road before, when he announced that he was stepping down, and returned with an even broader mandate a few months later.

And the fact that there were two names being "mooted" as possible replacements was not accidental. And today's press release from LVMH HQ confirms what I suspected -

After an extraordinary career spanning over 40 years in watchmaking, Jean-Claude Biver, together with LVMH, has decided to relinquish his operational responsibilities and assume the role of non-executive Chairman of the LVMH watchmaking division.

Stéphane Bianchi has been appointed CEO of the Watchmaking Division, with effect from 1st November 2018. He will directly lead TAG Heuer, with the CEOs of Hublot and Zenith reporting to him.

Frédéric Arnault has been appointed Strategy and Digital Director of TAG Heuer.

Okay, let's consider this from LVMH's perspective - You've got a strong, dynamic leader in charge of 1 of your most important brands, and "overseeing" 2 others. But what you also have is a wee bit of a cult of personality. And I want to say something very clearly - that is not a dig at Mr. Biver, it actually underscores his charisma, popularity and ability to lead. But what also happens in this situation is that you then find yourself without a real contingency plan, and more than just a small power vacuum just waiting to happen.

Hublot, while having a CEO not named Biver, constantly finds Mr. Biver front and center at a LOT of its operations. Tag Heuer? Mr. Biver has been the defacto CEO for several years, and there still does not seem to be anyone lined up and ready to take the helm, even though he has said frequently that it would be a priority to develop a replacement. And Zenith? Sure, lots of interesting new models, but if the conversation I recently heard two US retailers having about sales is anything to go on? Not exactly punching their weight. Now I also want to clearly state that these points are merely anecdotal. But when taken as a whole, they are worth considering.

Mr. Biver admittedly has been having health troubles, but as one person who knows about these things confided, Mr. Biver has had, and worked through several rather serious health issues for the past several years and has still remained at the helm. Moreover, we are talking about a guy who LOVES what he does, and has worked through similar challenges. And the last point about the health concerns, he has stated in his brief comments that he is now starting to do better health-wise. If so, why leave now?

And more pertinent, if it was really about health, why would the replacement not be starting until November? My sense is that someone at LVMH who has a last name that might begin with the letter "A" has a case of the fidgets.

It bears considering the language used in the release:
Jean-Claude Biver, together with LVMH, has decided to relinquish his operational responsibilities and assume the role of non-executive Chairman of the LVMH watchmaking division.

So at least insofar as LVMH goes, this is the end of a truly dynamic career. And if I am being honest? I think that there will be some changes coming within the brands as well, because when there is someone with that much personal involvement, who commands the type of loyalty that Mr. Biver has? Let's just say that for some, there might be some uncomfortable questions that cannot be ignored any longer.

Another way to look at it is what a person inside the industry has referred to as the "Biververse" or "Biversphere". Meaning that at the center of it all, you have Jean-Claude Biver, and orbiting around him are the satellites, such as Ricardo Guadalupe. There have been others, who have seen their career trajectories greatly altered once they have been uncoupled from the mother ship. The rare exception to this perhaps being Jean-Frederic Dufour, who landed perhaps one of the safest and most secure gigs out there when he landed on the Green Planet, Rolex. Aldo Magada is laboring on an obscure and dark planet with Anonimo and Vulcain. Stéphane Linder who resigned unexpectedly from Tag Heuer (which led to Mr Biver taking over at Tag) stopped for a glass of Tang at Gucci (less than 2 years) a brief stint as a consultant, then off to Breitling-World where he is now piloting the LEM with Georges Kern, potentially arguing about who will be the first to walk on the moon. What has not happened in recent years, which had happened in previous Biver regimes was the development of new talent. Many people felt (and rightly so) that a stint at Biver U could help develop someone to lead a brand of their own one day. This explains the 2 appointments announced by LVMH today. I do not claim to be a great friend or confidant to Mr. Biver, but I feel confident is saying that I think he would have looked for someone with actual industry experience, and probably would not have looked to promote based on family connections.

I think to sum it up, in many ways, Mr. Biver was the patron of the watch making peloton, and while you couldn't really argue with the overall results, it eventually led to a set-up that was entirely too dependent upon him to oversee, and as such it was inevitable that it would end. Sooner or later time is called on all of us, we just don't always know when it will be, or how it will come about.

Now on to the two New-Jacks. Per the LVMH announcement -

Stéphane Bianchi has been appointed CEO of the Watchmaking Division, with effect from 1st November 2018. He will directly lead TAG Heuer, with the CEOs of Hublot and Zenith reporting to him.

This breaks the Biver model, because while Mr. Bianchi might have been a titan in the cosmetics/perfume industry? This is quite a different thing and goes contrary to what Mr. Biver has said in more than one interview, and I quote particularly from an interview he had with Wired, essentially? You have to learn the ropes before you try to take command of the ship. He often reflects back to his beginnings and his stint at Audemars Piguet where he was put through an internship at half-salary for one year to learn the inner workings of the business. Something tells me that Mr. Bianchi is not taking a similar path. You could argue that at his age that would be unreasonable, but then again we do need to consider the title that he has been given. Time will tell, but from an outside perspective, I suspect that this appointment was driven more by the LVMH folks and was probably not taking into account too much feedback from the folks who actually work in this particular sector within the group.

And as for Arnault the "even younger"? Firstly, age is not necessarily a requirement for ability. Having said that? Well, it is interesting that Arnault the "slightly older" was invested with a luggage company, and now another family member is being inserted into a fairly high level position within the group in a company that he has spent some time with, but in an industry that he has very little actual experience in. So again, we will see what develops and how things go, but it doesn't hurt that he shares the same last name as the owners.

But if anything is abundantly clear given today's announcement, it is that LVMH is making a fairly serious change in how the watch brands will be managed, and I suspect that while this is a very big shift, there are more to come. And in this instance, I do not think that we will see Atlas shrug.

Something REALLY COOL from Tag Heuer!

Courtesy of Tag Heuer

Earlier this afternoon, a press release snuck into my "in"box from Tag Heuer.  It announced a new Tag Heuer co-branded model - the Gulf Special Edition Tag Heuer Formula 1.  I am not going to lie, a first I was somewhat dubious.  All due respect to Mr. Biver and the team at Tag Heuer - I am a wee bit done with all of the partnerships that have been proffered lately.  My bone of contention is that these are, by and large, mechanical and, well, expensive.  

BUT -
to be clear, Tag Heuer has a much longer track record than Yours Truly, and although I was a successful brand manager, my own modest little brand was very nearly still-born.  So my own judgments aside, even if I don't agree with every move, they seem to be doing okay ; )

Courtesy of Tag Heuer

So I was very, very pleasantly surprised to find out that this is truly a watch made for BOTH watch and auto racing fans.  Yes, it is quartz.  You might remember quartz from such watch articles as:

"The Most Accurate Time Measurement Available"

Isn't that appropriate for a piece that pays tribute to time, speed and the race against both?

And best of all, this is priced at a level that will attract new people to Tag Heuer who might have felt that they were previously priced out of the market.

And it will do something else - it will give some of those people their first REAL taste of a cool watch, and perhaps it will kindle a love affair with Tag Heuer, which then in turn will probably lead to the creation of walking, talking ambassadors.  And maybe, just maybe some of those new devotees will then aspire to a more expensive mechanical model?  Stranger things have happened!

So a very hearty (and sincere) congratulations to the team at Tag Heuer!  This might fly in the face of what the "purists" deem as "horology", and fair enough.  Let them poo-poo it.  I think it's bitchin'!  

And I expect a lot of "as yet to be discovered" Tag Heuer ambassadors will agree!

Here are the pertinents -
 

DIAL
Blue dial with Gulf stripes
3 counters for chronograph
Indexes and hour/ minute hands with white superluminova®

CASE
43 mm diameter
Steel case
Aluminum blue tachymeter fixed bezel
Flat sapphire crystal
Black PVD steel screw-down crown
Steel crown protector
Steel screw-down case back
GULF logo special engraving
Water resistance : 200 meters

MOVEMENT
TAG Heuer quartz movement, one of the most reliable and accurate made in Switzerland
Powered by a battery
Regulator (time-measuring device): quartz crystal.
Electrical current that causes the crystal to vibrate very consistently and at a very high frequency (32,768 times per second).
Almost perfect precision (a variation of only a few seconds per month.)

STRAP
Blue calf skin strap with asphalt texture
Brushed steel pin buckle

What I've Learned

Despite some pretty dubious watch coverage (i.e. you pay, we'll cover you), I still really enjoy Esquire and I am a big fan of their "What I've Learned" interview segments.  So given some recent interactions I've had both in person and online, and considering that if I count back to when I first stepped behind the counter at Tourneau in San Francisco, I've been "in the game" for 15 years now, I thought it might be fun to put out my own "What I've Learned" piece.  So, gentle reader, here is some of what 
I've learned -

While it is true that Hayek saved the Swiss Watch industry, Jean-Claude Biver would have still kicked ass with Blancpain and would have lived happily ever after either way.

I was there before Hublot became what they would become.  
I am still here now that it is a somewhat bumbling PR gas factory that, apparently, also makes watches.  Although I know that I have the ability to highly irritate him, I have a great deal of respect for Jean-Claude Biver.  But now is the time to start thinking about legacy.  About what happens when he is no longer there.  Jean-Claude Biver is a very, very impressive man.  He has done some very amazing things. Here's hoping it doesn't get washed away.

When a brand manager or CEO asks you "How are you my friend?"  The translation of that is - "how you doing, asshole?"

Brand managers, CEOs, PR people?  By and large,they are not your friends.  Don't delude yourself to the contrary.  You might get lucky with a few - and I have, but the true friends will reveal themselves over time, and they are the ones you should always make time for at BaselWorld.


Having said all that - sometimes you will, despite your compulsion to serve up cold cups of coffee, find some true friends and supporters in some very unexpected places.

You will learn to see when people are genuine.  Hold onto those people like a non-treatable social disease.  They have every reason to dislike you based on what you write or say, and yet they are your audience.  And they are your friends indeed.

Rich, famous, important people - are a lot less interesting when you finally meet them.

Little known piece of Henki lore, my father was a country club manager.  Translation?  He worked so that the more well-heeled could play.  I worked in the locker room of the club, my first job working as a shoe shine guy.  Believe it or not, in the 70s and 80s, there was an actual industry based upon shining the shoes of rich people while they walked around a park-like environment, drinking beer and whacking small white balls.  Rich people, famous people?  They are people.  George Steinbrenner was a titan of industry and master manipulator.  I can tell you from personal experience, his shoes smelled just as awful as an orthodontist, dermatologist or mid-level auto executive's.   The one thing all four of these guys had in common?  They were shitty tippers.

I have met some of the big swinging dicks of the industry.  It is all too often underwhelming.

When anyone tells you how amazing you are and how "just as soon as you take advertising, we're in!"  this person should be taken with about as much seriousness as you would take the drunk person asking for $3 on the commuter train so that they can "buy a healthy snack".

We all say a lot of highly dubious stuff when we've been drinking.  That's why your wife/husband/partner learns over the years to apply the bullshit filter.  Make sure you do the same, it will spare you a fair amount of heartache.

When you have made it clear by your actions, your writing, and your passion that you are predisposed to write nice things about a brand, and said brand treats you with a fair amount of indifference?  Take it on the heel and toe.  Love needs to be reciprocal.

I am still somewhat miffed by my interaction with a certain member of the SWATCH group.  I gave up a Thanksgiving holiday, spent several hundred dollars of my own money to interview their CEO, and then watched as the outlet that they were on retainer with got so-called "exclusives", review opportunities, etc., and I got the cold shoulder.   To this day, I have no doubt that the North American brand manager of SWATCH GROUP brand X just thinks that I am a difficult person.  But in fairness?  If someone is willing to give you so much for NOTHING?  You can spare a little time and a little effort.  And for what it's worth?  In speaking with retail partners of SWATCH GROUP brand X, they are not exactly selling like the waffle's sexier cousin - the hotcake.

Brands are made up of people.  The brand does not exist without the people.  If a brand has good people - I will do ALL that I can.  If a brand has people that just don't care?  Why should I care about them?

I get the odd comment - "I thought you were a fan of Brand A".  Well, I have come to learn that brands are made of people.  It's not as if the founders of Girard-Perregaux are going to make a special appearance in the physical world to tour me around the factory.  The brand?  The brand is the people who work there.  So put it in another context - do you like spending time with people who treat you poorly?  Of course you don't.  Molly Ringwald's entire career was based on this notion.  A watch is an inanimate object.  It can't speak for itself.  A brand is not simply products.  A brand is the people who make those products, and share that message.  

Brand ambassadors are about as worthwhile as what you wipe your backside with.

There is a reason why Hitler, Stalin and Pol Pot are not mentioned as customers of Brand X.  

Churchill, Napoleon, Lindbergh?  All flawed, all now "ambassadors" from the great beyond.  Well, they won, didn't they? They were all flawed, all had baggage. But they are a whole lot more palatable. 

Question - do you think that the Mario Batali Ernst Benz is a big seller right now?  

Sorry, too soon? 

A brand ambassador will not be there with you when they turn out the lights.  A former brand that was "ALL IN" can attest to that.

Remember everyone you meet when times are good.  You will see them again on your way back down.  

It is inevitable to fail.  The trick is not to make a habit of it.  More importantly?  Don't be a jackass when times are good.  Sooner or later, it is likely you will fail.  By and large, most of us want to help people and offer our support.  That is, of course, presuming that person behaved, well, like a person when times were good ; )

Don't fake the funk 

Because in the immortal words of that other great commentator on the watch industry Daryl Dawkins:
“When everything is said and done there is nothing left to do or say.”