Waiting for Biver... The Over/Under

So despite what you might have read in another well-known outlet, I am more and more of the belief that the rumors I heard simmering while I was in Switzerland a few weeks ago are perhaps more accurate than the posturing of a self-proclaimed authority.

You may remember such Biver "Farewell to Arms" platitudes as:

Leaving and focusing on passing on my knowledge.

Ending retirement to come back and run Tag Heuer.

Focusing on trying to save Zenith.

Leaving for health reasons.

And the most recent - 

I am really not coming back.

And... needless to say, some of us long term Biver watchers are not 100% convinced that this is really going to be it.  

I am taking the "under" on this one, and guessing that he is going to be back sooner rather than later.  

As I get older, and my father's own mortality recedes farther and farther behind me in the rear view mirror, I have come to realize that what spouses and family members often categorize and label as a character flaw (being a workaholic) is, in fact, just someone who is (to some extent) in love with work.  That perhaps their work defines (at least to them) who they are.  That work for them is not just an activity, but a state of mind, which in turn is a state of being.

I don't claim to know or understand Mr. Biver any more than I know or understand the guy on the corner who asks me for my spare change.  Not unlike Ralph Lauren there is a very public Mr. Biver, and another guy who runs watch brands.  And in fairness, we all of us have some sort of duality of self.  I think what I am saying is that the watch game is (I suspect) a bit too ingrained into his persona for him to completely walk away.  The ties with LVMH have a few months to go until they are completely severed.  And I think we will see him again.  Now whether that is as the person who will shepherd a Patek change of ownership, the father who will help his son launch or take over his own brand, or simply launch a new thing completely his own without taking over?  Well that part still remains to be fleshed out.

And then again?  Maybe he really means it this time and he is done.
  
We shall wait, and we shall see.

Where's Biver?

So I guess this is one of those "what if Paul is dead" type of posts.  But in fact, it's more along the lines of - what if Jean-Claude Biver didn't really retire?

Shamelessly borrowed from the word-wide infoweb

Okay, in fairness I have already placed my bet that Mr. Biver is no more likely to retire than I am to buy a Shinola watch.  For those tuning in late?  Let's just say I am sometimes unable to discern the difference between fecal matter and the time telling products produced under the Shinola banner.

So if we go with the premise that Jean-Claude Biver is, to quote that other great commentator on watch industry - Kool Moe Dee: "Coming back, like Return of the Jedi", there are only a handful of brands that would really fit the ticket.  Although he looked "Tony Robbins Good" in his video interview a few weeks back, we have to accept the fact that he is not in his 40s or 50s anymore.  So where on the Monopoly board would he be likely to land?  Well, news dribbled out from a few sources today that a small family operation based in Geneva might be seeking new ownership, and while he would not be the owner, he might certainly be seen as the lynch pin in a potential purchase.

For a direct report, please have a quick look at this link from 
SwissInfo.CH - 

SWISSINFO.CH PATEK

Now there are those out there who would say that the whole point of Patek Philippe is that it is a family owned brand, privately held, yada yada yada, they would never, ever sell.  Well, maybe not so much.  Let's consider a few of life's less romantic realities -

Shamelessly borrowed from the world-wide infoweb

1. Very few people actually want to go on forever. Let's face it, even Sisyphus got worn down from the routine. Sooner or later, if you've been doing something a long enough time, you don't necessarily want to keep pushing that particular boulder up the hill.  Now there are those of you out there who would be scoobied by anyone who wouldn't want to lead the world's most famous watch brand.  But we have to remember that Thierry Stern was for all intents and purposes born into the business.  Nothing wrong with that, but for all we know, he has harbored a secret ambition to paint murals, become a master pastry chef, teach history... hell, maybe even be a ditch-digger.  But these have never really been possibilities.  If his kids are disinterested in following the family path, then who could blame him for looking for a reliable custodian and cashing in his chips while he still has a winning hand?

2.  Very few people actually want to go on forever, but a few do.  A bit of personal Henki history - my father was a bit of a living legend in his particular field of endeavor.  Now to be fair, the field of private club management (country club, city club, private club) is a fairly niche profession, but over the years he managed to cut a pretty wide swath through his chosen area.  He retired a little ahead of the typical age of 65, but went on to run his consulting business until he (quite literally) unexpectedly dropped dead at 71.  For a long time it was a lifestyle choice that I didn't necessarily understand, but looking at Jean-Claude Biver's choices, I see a lot of my father's career track and practises in him.  If we look at the industry, it tends to attract a rather unique "type of dude" and it is safe to say that Mr. Biver now casts a very long, living shadow.  He has done some fairly impressive things, and enjoyed some phenomenal success.  And it is safe to say that he is considered the authority by many.  It is also noteworthy that part of the reason why he has remained engaged is because he has not been at the same place the entire time.  He had his apprenticeship, built Blancpain, moved to Omega, reinvented Hublot, stoked the hype machine at Tag-Heuer, and now is footloose and fancy free.  And if I were being honest, has succeeded everywhere with the exception of Zenith.  But as Chuck Yeager (played by Sam Shepard) said in The Right Stuff - "Sometimes you get a pooch that can't be screwed, ya' know?"  Zenith is a brand that is greatly admired by purists and journalists, but will probably never be greatly appreciated by the people who are actually needed to actually purchase it.  To quote two knuckle-headed retailers I was recently trapped on an overseas junket with:  "Yeah, it's a great brand, but I have almost no margin on it.  I have to keep discounting it at least 30, sometimes 40 percent."  Not exactly what you want to hear from two big time watch retailers, even if in real life it's hard to distinguish them 
from -

Courtesy of Wikipedia

3.  Let's be honest, we're talking about a shit-ton of money.  Yes, there are money managers out there who know all about finance.  But, there are also plenty of very successful people from other industries that got involved with the faux fame of the watch business and had their heads handed to them.  And for the record, I am definitely in the Billy Beane / Barry Hearn school of management/ownership.  You absolutely need passion, but you also need common sense and self-control.  And most importantly?  You need a person with some gravitas.  Jean-Claude Biver is probably never going to invite me to his chateau for dinner.  I will be shocked if I ever get any more of the famous Biver cheese (unless it is the batch that went off), and I don't think he and I are going to be sipping pastis while playing boules somewhere in the Luberon.  But whether he is going to win a Noble Peace Prize or not, he is probably the one person you would want as the face of your "takeover" if you were, just for the sake of discussion, taking over Patek Philippe.

So let's see. 
 
Until then?  

We are still waiting for Biver.

Tudor is Coming to the US... Maybe...

In what is seemingly one of the best - worst kept secrets in the watch industry, it seems more and more likely that Tudor is in fact coming to the US this year.  Needless to say, word around the campfire is that this is happening/is going to happen SOON.  In speaking with folks in the know in Switzerland and the US, they say count on it.

If I were the sort to propose theories, I believe it would map out something like this:

January/February - identify and begin training future representatives for the US
March - start firming up appointments for BaselWorld
April - big official announcement and unveiling at BaselWorld

But then again, maybe not.  Maybe the announcement will come sooner than this.  And that would make sense as well - get the retail partners so excited about the news so that they can't wait to get to Basel and place their orders.  In fact, make the announcement during SIHH - really steal some thunder!

But then again... maybe not?  Maybe they really aren't coming?

I often remember - fondly - the Rolex rep who came for a training session at Tourneau in San Francisco when I was working there.  One of my colleagues asked:
"What is the one thing that Rolex does so well?" 
the man from Rolex said:
"It's not that we do one thing so well, it's that we do EVERYTHING so well!"

You have to love confidence like that!  And when you are Rolex, I think it's only fair that you set your own agenda, and you decide when to tell the world what you want to tell them.

For those of us who remember the 80s in the US and in particular the Democratic party's desperate search for a viable presidential contender, we were all waiting for Mario Cuomo to announce that he would run.  Crazy build up and excited anticipation, and each time, at the last minute, he would have a big press conference to announce - that he wasn't running!

So for now, we are waiting for Tudor.  Let's hope it will not be like Samuel Beckett's Waiting For Godot -

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waiting_for_Godot