The second option of the two new Ollech & Wajs models, this is the OW P-101. Hours, minutes, seconds and date (at 6 o'clock). The case measures 39.56 mm X 12.5 mm which I have to be honest is a slightly curious set of dimensions. The movement is the ETA 2824-2. Here are the pertinents, straight from the source: REFERENCE OW P-101
DIMENSIONS 39.56 mm X 12.5 mm
CASE brushed 316L stainless steel, screwed back, screw-down crown, rotating bezel 12H. origin: stamped, machined, and brushed in Jura, Switzerland.
GLASS sapphire with anti-glare treatment
DIAL hands and indexes in Super-LumiNova®
WATER RESISTANCE 300M/ 30ATM
MOVEMENT automatic ETA 2824-2 OW3P, hours minutes seconds date
SWISSNESS over 90% of components of Swiss origin, assembled in Swiss Jura
BRACELET 20mm wide, natural leather and linen, origin Great Britain
PACKAGING leather origin Great Britain, Italian Kraft paper
Boy, you go to sleep the night before, you wake up and the world has gone crazy!
Unless you have spent the last several hours in an isolation chamber, you now know that Nick Hayek dropped the SWATCH bomb, and went with what American politicos term the "nuclear option". As per too many news outlets to credit, SWATCH Group has announced that they will not be rolling out the red carpet for their retail partners, the press and the general public at BaselWorld 2019.
Now if we look at this on the surface, we can totally appreciate all of Mr. Hayek's reasoning. The fair is way too expensive to participate in - tell me about it! The returns don't justify the outlay, the watch making and buying world has become more transparent, yada, yada, yada... But there are a few things that, upon reflection, don't ring true to me. First and foremost, harping about the cost of the building itself is nonsense. Essentially, and I am paraphrasing here - that it is not up to the SWATCH group to help recover the cost of building the BaselWorld Halls in the first place. Well, based on that logic, it should not be up to me, the customer, to help recoup the expenses of "maintaining" the Gerber-Crawford relationship, the massive construction project going on in Biel/Bienne, and the exorbitant rent for the New York City boutique/s with the purchase of a rather steeply priced Omega that I will likely find in the grey market at an equally steep discount a little later down the road. So in fairness, to me this is a bit of the pot calling the kettle "less than shiny". But if we go a little deeper, there are some other considerations. Now on the one hand, SWATCH group posted fairly significant gains in their half year report recently. On the front page of their half year report, SWATCH stated that "growth" in "America" had been particularly good. Well, I can't really speak to that with anything specific, because I do not have access to the sales ledgers. But I would point out a few key points. For starters, SWATCH has a fully owned subsidiary in the US. So what that means is that actual sales are a bit dicier to quantify from the outside. The single biggest problem with trying to gain anything "knowable" from the Swiss export numbers is the realities of the new Swissness regulations - SWATCH Group and all of the other big (and small) dogs still have a shit-ton of components that were manufactured under the old standards, and they need to assemble and export them by the end of the year. It is July 29th, which when you factor in the holidays (which essentially start in the second week of December) it's essentially four months. Because when the clock strikes midnight, quite a few watches will turn into wrist-bound pumpkins. So if you are running these brands, you know that by that date everything must be out of Switzerland as any of the remaining stuff can't be used anymore. It's safe to say that this definitely leads to higher export volumes which (if we are being honest about it) don't really match up with what the real market demand is. As a friend who knows about these things pointed out to me, Hong Kong‘s wholesale is dead but the export figures to Hong Kong continue to explode. Un petit mystere, nes pas? So let me venture a few theories - Paul is Dead
Borrowed from the world-wide infoweb
People of a certain vintage will remember this one. It got their attention, people were talking, until...
Courtesy of Life Magazine
So, maybe this is a lot of bluster. Essentially, make the announcement, and make the BaselWorld organizers jump to the height you are requiring. Simply put? With the current state of the watch business, I do not think that there are sufficient numbers of deep pocketed brands to fill the vacuum that will be created by the SWATCH group's absence. So it is possible that a spirit of détente will be reached by both sides. Keep in mind, we still aren't even to September, if Hayek can go from a yes to no for BaselWorld, he can go back to yes again. Stranger things have happened.
But let's say that, in Hayek's mind, to quote the Dude (The Big Lebowski) quoting President Bush (the first):
"This aggression will not stand, man." And maybe, just maybe, he feels that there truly has been a seismic shift in the watch business. Well, maybe yes. But given the vast amounts of cash thrown into pr and media things for SWATCH group brands, I don't completely buy everything he is selling. Because after everything has been said and done, while Omega can certainly manage without BaselWorld, the less glamorous brands in the group actually really need to be seen.
My gut tells me something different (and in fairness, it is possible that my gut has shit for brains) but let me air it out for you - I think that the reality is somewhere in the middle. BaselWorld is crazy expensive. If the feeling was that the fair was failing and that it's expenses couldn't be justified? Well they would have walked away a few years ago. But more than just the fees for participation, a big component of BaselWorld is the cost of the actual booth itself. You budget for them, and the cost is amortized over time. And every several years? You build a new one (or in the case of SWATCH group - several). Now I do not know this as gospel, but just a theory - what if the cost of the booths (yes, that is plural) has been amortized and it can go off of the books? Well, then you have a perfect opportunity to walk away. At least for one year ; )
Why might that be important? Well, let's get back to that whole export / Swissness bugaboo. The analysts would have you believe that the watch industry is experiencing a comeback of heroic proportions. But the truth is far muddier than that. Exports are up, but that is not necessarily a corollary to strong sales. In many cases, this is just products being shunted out of the Swiss borders and over to subsidiaries overseas. If and when retail stores start crowing about their record breaking sales (which in fairness, all of us would be happy to see), it is a dubious notion to talk about recovery. So keeping that in mind, it also stands to reason that the actual number of watches departing Switzerland after December 31st might be, well, smaller. Meaning that in order to keep shareholders and the analysts sweet, you need to find savings. And although numbers like CHF 50 million are bandied about for expenditures during BaselWeek, I suspect that they could, in fact, be higher. So if your sales numbers slump due to smaller production and export, you might want to find money wherever you can. On the other hand - You could cut some of your budgets, don't spend the amounts of money to fly people in and out, close the cafe, etc. Savings could be found. But that might not really be the point of all of this. So whether this is hard hearted pragmatism, or Kabuki theater for the goofy, time will tell.
The results for August are in, and strictly looking at the numbers, they would appear very encouraging.
Courtesy of the FH
And in fairness, they show a very positive trend. The export numbers are, indeed, up. But the tell-tale realities remain - sales are not up to a level that would clearly state that things are back to normal. And that remains the $64,000 Question - when will the export numbers truly measure the strength and stability of the Swiss Watch Industry?
One key time period we should all be waiting on is the first (and possibly second) quarter of next year. As I and many others have mentioned - the new standards for what make a Swiss watch "Swiss" go into effect, and there is a not so subtle push to get as much product outside of the borders of Switzerland as possible before the odometer turns on January 1. Export numbers are simply that - export numbers. They do not tell us whether manufacturing numbers are up, they do not tell us that sales are up. When we are talking about the major groups, all that they are really telling us is that products have been transferred from HQ to a subsidiary.
Now one other interesting item to consider - the US market is STILL down. And in fact it is down nearly 5%. Also interesting to relate with that number being as low as it is, the US is still #2 in global exports... I am no economist and am not on the shortlist to replace the current Secretary of Commerce, but the numbers don't really make sense.
We will wait and we will see - and hopefully we'll see an actual recovery. But what we in the press, and many of you consumers have absolutely no way of knowing - is just how much of this export increase is due to a business improvement, and how much of it is a flush of product prior to January 1?
To be really, really clear - I personally want to see things improve. I am tired of reporting on less than inspiring results. But the industry, and those who ran the brands and wrote the checks have spent the last 7 years pigging out and forgetting the lessons that they should have taken to heart then. Let's see if the lesson sticks this time.
In fairness, July's numbers were posted a little while back, but I wanted to take a little time and really think about what these numbers might really mean.
Courtesy of the FH
Now to be completely fair, the graph is definitely heading north. And in principle, that is really good news because the export numbers have been so stinky for so long.
And while the uptick in the export numbers would be welcome in any situation, there are still a few factors that continue to be ignored, or at least not really discussed.
While the export numbers continue to climb, the actual sales numbers being reported by retail store operators continues to run contrary to this increase.
Another point of curiosity is the drop off of a few recently strong market places. The UK is dramatically down with an -8% decrease. And Italy, that convenient dumping enclave just across the line from Lugano? A fairly serious drop-off of -14.3%.
Also interesting to relate, Hong Kong and China are both up dramatically. But with more and more companies replacing CEOs, brand managers and sales reps? It all points back to the same inescapable reality - the actual sales numbers do not match up to the increase in exports.
About a year ago, a good friend of mine who knows about these things predicted that we would see something like this - in his words, something akin to "a tsunami of grey market product" sloshing around the parallel markets owing to the need to liquidate all of the existing stock that would not pass muster under the new "Swissness" codes. This would explain the very sharp upticks in exports.
To some extent we could look at the numbers in any light and come up with reasons for positive or negative feelings. But there are a few inescapable truths that keep looping back. Brands continue to make cuts, advertising spending has clearly dropped and shows no signs of coming back this year, and more and more talented people are being let go, and not being replaced. And if the whispers are to be believed, we may see some more brands join others in the deep sleep of a coma patient that has been removed from life support, but the brain has not fully received the message that the body is dead.
The good news? If brands continue to toe the line and keep production down, once the current flood of grey market merchandise is flushed through the system, then the sales numbers might stabilize.
Okay, I will start out by saying that yes, the video that was created by the folks at Moser was funny, you can find the link at the bottom of this post.
Having said that, I can honestly say without fear that I will change my opinion, that this is a watch that is so unpleasant to look at that it hurts my feelings.
Courtesy of H. Moser & Cie.
I appreciate humor. I absolutely appreciate making a statement. But with this latest splash of bravado, I start to understand what Gertrude Stein meant when she wrote of Oakland - ...but not there, there is no there there
I suspect that some of you are waiting for me to get to the damn point, so here it is - More and more I wonder are the cinematic efforts of H. Moser an attempt to REALLY communicate brand identity and values? There is a time for bravado, and there is a time for restraint. On the one hand the message is we are extremely rare and wonderful. That is a great message by the way. But there is one problem - in the same message they say that not only are they rare and wonderful but please check out our latest partnership. Oh, and we're irreverent! Oh, and edgy too, don't forget edgy! Oh, and did we mention that we are also very rare...
Rare and wonderful? Then show me the watch makers, show me the production, show me the real care and attention that I am absolutely certain they pay to their product. If your message is about the watch, then talk about the watch. Cool it with the gimmicks and gags. Because more and more what it comes to look like is the boss writing large checks to feed his ego and make fun videos.
And while other brands are struggling to pay the milk bill, it is a wonderful luxury to have the funds to create an ego trip that tells the time. But it also shows that the brain trust at H. Moser are failing to heed one of Barry Hearn's rules (as adopted to the watch industry) - Keep your heart and your wallet in different places.
Let me close with this - while I write about this stuff, I am clearly not in H. Moser & Cie's demographic, and that is okay. The fact that it is not my particular demitasse of espresso, I understand that it might turn your crank. So if you're so inclined, here are the pertinents - TECHNICAL FEATURES
SWISS MAD WATCH
Reference 8327
Reference 8327-1400 model made with Swiss cheese, red fumé dial, Swiss cowhide leather strap, unique piece
Dial Red fumé with sunburst pattern White lacquered applique indexes and hour and minute hands in the shape of a swallow's tail
Movement In-house, hand-wound, mechanical HMC 327 calibre Dimensions: 32.0 mm or 14 ¼ lignes, height: 4.5 mm Frequency: 18,000 Vib/h 29 jewels Power reserve: minimum 3 days Moser teeth for all wheels and pinions Original Straumann Hairspring® with stabilised Breguet overcoil
Functions Hours and minutes Power reserve indicator on movement side
Strap
Hand-stitched cowhide leather strap
Steel pin buckle, engraved with the Moser logo
Which makes you sound like a bad ass when you say it in a sales planning meeting, but it makes you look like a plonker when the books get closed for the year and you've got millions of francs worth of watches still not paid. None of this is new news. But to quote another poet, the shit's about to get realer!
For at least the past 5 years, brands have been radically overproducing. Now it is worth noting that this overproduction was not the result of bad times, but rather good ones. Sorry to pick on JEANRICHARD but it is a perfect example - millions are invested, brand is reinvented, a modular concept for the three different lines is implemented, and limited selection is offered. And the crowd goes WILD!
But then the shot-callers got the fidgets. The logic being that if they are making their numbers with a black, silver and blue dial, they should make green, aubergine (in fairness, my all-time favorite) and have several partnerships as well. So in less than an 8 month period, they went from a tight collection that everyone wanted, to what can honestly be called a stretched and diluted identity. All those watches had to go somewhere, so even 2 years ago JEANRICHARD was dumping stock to the grey market. But the grey market couldn't absorb and dispatch it all, so a lot of it then moved to the light-grey market (even deeper discounts).
Interesting to relate, I now use this as a talking point when consulting with other brands. And it becomes a very simple question:
Are you trying to build a brand, or are you trying to sell a shit-ton of watches in a short amount of time?
Now while these two ideas are not necessarily mutually exclusive, they are not always going to happen within parallel time frames. What we see happening in a handful of brands like JEANRICHARD is an unfortunate tendency to overreact when things slow down. The logic being - "hey, we need more selection!" More selection means more sales, right? Not necessarily. Because what inevitably happens is that while you might sell a few aubergine dial watches, you sell fewer silver dialed ones. In other words, you have increased your product selection (and your costs), but your sales have stayed the same. Lather, rinse, repeat, and suddenly your safes start to resemble the Star Ship Enterprise being overwhelmed by Tribbles -
Now take this image and put it on steroids.
Remember that whole new "Swissness" thing some folks have been talking about? Well, the clock is ticking, and Swiss brands need to "export" as many of their previous and current collections that don't quite meet the new standards as possible in the next 12 months.
So maybe, just maybe, brands need to start thinking about how big (or small) their grasp really is, and adjust their reach accordingly.
So what happens when you take an aggressive new stance on what "Made in Switzerland" means, mix in 2 cups of overproduction, and bake it for approximately 15 months in a major watch sales slump?
Well, suffice it to say, it is not going to be pretty.
Here are the "armchair" basics as I understand them. As always, if I have gotten a fact wrong I welcome feedback and will correct it immediately -
1. Introduction of the Swissness legislation will take effect finally on 1 January, 2017.
Meaning that a lot of the "semi-Swiss" watches out there still unsold that were produced before January 1, 2017 will need to be sold before the end of 2018. Seems like a long time, doesn't it? Well let's take a few other considerations into account. It is closing in on the end of 2015 and several brands are still trying to blow out preexisting stock from the overproduction from previous years, which will be replaced by the need to sell the over production of this year and next year and on and on. Think I'm kidding? Check your favorite Internet/grey market source. And that is just what you can see. Like cockroaches, most grey marketers spend their time scurrying around in the dark. In fairness, they are the creation of overly rapacious watch company CEOs.
2. If you can sell 4000 watches, then by all means you should double that production to 8000 because you can always dump those watches in Hong Kong and mainland China... not any longer. Many retail giants in Asia are reporting deep stocks of unsold watches. And they are PISSED.
3. We are in the depths of one of the worst watch sales periods on record, and we still do not know where the "bottom" is. But it is likely that we have not reached it yet. Smart watches? Cell phones? Slowdown in China? Those are all excuses. What the brands are now learning in a very painful way is despite what IWC's Mr. Kern so boldly claimed - that essentially an IWC watch represented a somewhat inelastic demand - meaning no matter how high you jack up the price, the demand will still be there, they in fact do not.
Wanna' revisit those talking points Mr. Kern? While I agree with him that watches are emotional purchases, sooner or later rational thinking will collide with and surmount emotion. And rational thinking is now governing watch buying decisions.
What I suspect we will see in the coming months?
Even greater numbers of watches flooding the discount/grey market at even more deeply discounted prices. More and more retail stores struggling and ultimately giving up. The brands that can't survive will either go broke or go "dormant" - which by the way is the suspicion that many people are starting to have about Zenith - it is their anniversary and it is being celebrated with all of the excitement of Arbor Day. In other words, it is not being celebrated AT ALL.
A person with a great deal of knowledge has described this gathering catastrophe as a tsunami. I think that is probably a pretty apt analogy. As we know, those who see the signs and make the adjustments will make it to a safe harbor. Those who insist on going the same way as always will find themselves broken on the shore.
