The Transfer Window gets Shattered!

As it is announced today that the man that took the hit for Tag Heuer is now back in the saddle with, wait for it... Gucci!

In one of the shortest job searches in watch executive history, it seems that Stéphane Linder can remove his resume from Career Builder.  There are times when I think you just couldn't make this stuff up, and this is one of them.

Former Tag Heuer CEO Stéphane Linder was unveiled to the press and presented with his "Gucci Jersey" today and with the recent turmoil in the "House of Gucci" stateside (translation - mass exodus of US staff), it is reasonable to assume that "Cause" has been introduced to "Effect".

In fairness, Mr. Linder worked his way up with Tag Heuer and was a Tag Loyalist, which made his sudden departure unsettling to say the least.  But also, when reviewing how things have unfolded prior to that, somewhat predictable.  Mr. Linder is more on the technical side, he is not really a finance/marketing guy which is really what Gucci's bread and butter is.  So whether or not this is a "rebound romance" or "true love" remains to be seen, but I certainly wish Mr. Linder the best of luck.

In the wake of this it seems that we can draw one of two possible conclusions:

1.  This has been in the planning stages for some time and was possibly even somehow connected to Mr. Sofisti stepping down in the manner that he did.

2.  Perhaps, in fact, what is unfolding is a bit of a full-scale transfer?

I know that it's a nutty idea, but stay with me here sports fans:

What if...

Michelle Sofisti was named the next CEO of Tag Heuer?  He is a member of the Biver tribe and if you think of qualified, capable folks out there footloose and fancy-free, he would certainly fit the bill for a brand like Tag Heuer.

The world does indeed work in mysterious ways, and stranger things have happened.  Nobody on the outside could have predicted Jean-Frédéric Dufour moving over to Rolex.  Yet it all seemed to move with a (dare I say it) predetermined smoothness.  Almost as if it was a series of puzzle pieces that Rolex and LVMH worked collaboratively to assemble.  There has been a slightly longer "lag time" here, but that could be down to things like possible non-competes, etc. 

So we shall wait, and we shall see.  Suffice it to say, in regard to the next CEO for Tag Heuer it is clear that "those who know won't say, and those who will say don't know."

I would not necessarily bet the farm on this, but if Sofisti does become the Tag Heuer CEO - you owe me a Coke ; )

The Transfer Window Opens...

At Tag Heuer.

So by now many of you know that the the status of Tag Heuer CEO Stéphane Linder is that of "former".  The official word from Tag Heuer central is that he has "left to pursue other professional endeavors".  Generally speaking you don't tend to leave mid-week to "pursue other professional endeavors".  Feel free to draw your own conclusions.  The usual "niceness" crafted into a company statement that has probably been keeping warm in the "on deck" circle ready for dispatch for some time now.

I used to fantasize about being a "big swinging dick" in the watch world.  Running the show, Maserati  for a company cars, all the watches I could eat.  I am beginning to feel more and more that it is truly a poison chalice.  With the frequency and volume of watch brand CEO's cleaning out their desks I have drawn a few conclusions which may be fair, and then again maybe not.

1.  The watch industry keeps hiring a "type of guy".  Usually someone who has worked in the industry at a certain level and whether they've been successful or not, they are hired because they meet a profile that everyone is comfortable with.  He fails, they hire another in essentially the same mold.  Lather, rinse, repeat.  And somehow they expect that things will miraculously be different...

2.  The person brought in has in fact already been terminated.  This happened even before their first day in the office.  The cards were stacked against them from the start.  They might have a few of what people battling fatal illnesses refer to as "good days", but by and large their goose was already cooked.  They just didn't know it.

3.  The parent company has some pretty unrealistic expectations about what sales numbers should or shouldn't be.  The shareholders want to see growth, and growth is marked in sales numbers.  Now of course what this fails to take into account is sales numbers achieved through the "cleansing elixir" of the grey market where your worst sales quarter is suddenly one of your best sales quarters!  The shareholders are happy - you sold what you needed to!  But the perception of the brand starts to ease it's way down a "greased rabbit hole" that becomes increasing difficult to extricate itself from.  Think I'm kidding?  Why the f*&^k am I shopping for a Tag Heuer in an OUTLET MALL?!?!?  "Yeah, I stopped in for some irregular underwear and an Orange Julius and picked up this little beauty from Tag!"

This is moral hazard writ large for all of us to see.  The industry needs to change NOW, because it is cannibalizing itself and blaming it on China, or the strong dollar or the weak Euro or a hang nail...

The answer is simple - not sexy.  
1.  Make a good product
2.  Market the product, not some brain-dead partnership because you have childhood daydreams about playing pro soccer or being an F1 driver.
3.  Impress upon your board of directors that, in fact, the world has a somewhat "finite" number of potential customers, therefore it is not realistic to produce a number of watches at 3 times that rate and expect to sell them.
4.  The 80s are over, as are the 90s and even the 00s.  There is nothing wrong with growth, but I don't even like steroids in my sports, I sure as hell don't like them in my earnings projections.  Learn to be a bit more pragmatic, a bit more steady.