Barry B. Kaplan, knows a thing or two about a thing or two. One of them is market research in the watch industry. And yesterday he dropped a truth bomb which laid bare a lot of the presumptions that many brands would be happy for you to maintain about the price stability of their wares and the true market value.
A brief synopsis:
BBK & Co. did a deep data dive through their access to a database of roughly 5 million new & "gently used" watches throughout the world. While a lot of facts and figures wouldn't surprise anyone or raise too many eyebrows, it's is at mid-table where some interesting questions come up.
Here is an excerpt:
"Mid-tier luxury watches have a price problem. Just look at all the unsold new/unworn inventory.
At BBK & Co., we have access to a database of approximately 5 million new and pre-owned watches worldwide.
Across the world's top timepiece brands, we ranked the relative concentration of new and unworn watches in the retail, wholesale, and parallel markets for every global region. We adjusted for each market’s tendency to carry new stock and for relative market weight.
The index below uses 100 as the benchmark. A score of 200 means twice the benchmark concentration after adjustment—not twice as many watches.
1. NOMOS — 202.5
2. Casio — 192.1
3. Frederique Constant — 158.4
4. Citizen — 156.7
5. Tissot — 156.5
6. Glashütte Original — 132.5
7. Bell & Ross — 131.5
8. Hamilton — 126.6
9. Longines — 126.5
10. Montblanc — 121.4
11. Maurice Lacroix — 117.9
12. Baume & Mercier — 111.9
13. Oris — 111.8
14. Rado — 109.0
15. Breitling — 104.9
These brands span very different price points. In my wholesale and retail experience, the mid-tier luxury names here have pushed prices beyond what many customers will pay. Too much unworn stock is competing for the same buyer, and dealers have to discount to move it.
Breitling deserves attention. Alongside the new and unworn Breitlings on the secondary market, I’m seeing many recently manufactured Universal Genève watches offered through private parallel channels, with more waiting in the wings. Universal Genève is a sister brand under the same ownership.
Swiss export figures put this in perspective. According to FH industry statistics, Switzerland exported 29.8 million watches in 2011 and 14.6 million in 2025—a 51% decline. Over that period, wristwatch export value rose from CHF18.1 billion to CHF24.4 billion.
Much of the lost volume was quartz, so those numbers alone don’t prove a collapse in mid-tier luxury. But in the first half of 2026, export value in the CHF500–3,000 segment fell another 5.7%. Those are export prices, before retail markups.
My view: parts of mid-tier luxury are collapsing under their own pricing. The inventory ranking is a signal; the wholesale offers and discounts are where I see the pressure becoming real.
There are also scores of start up watch brands willing to fill the pricing gap for the current crop of watch buyers who don't really care whether the brand's provenance is Swiss or otherwise."
At BBK & Co., we have access to a database of approximately 5 million new and pre-owned watches worldwide.
Across the world's top timepiece brands, we ranked the relative concentration of new and unworn watches in the retail, wholesale, and parallel markets for every global region. We adjusted for each market’s tendency to carry new stock and for relative market weight.
The index below uses 100 as the benchmark. A score of 200 means twice the benchmark concentration after adjustment—not twice as many watches.
1. NOMOS — 202.5
2. Casio — 192.1
3. Frederique Constant — 158.4
4. Citizen — 156.7
5. Tissot — 156.5
6. Glashütte Original — 132.5
7. Bell & Ross — 131.5
8. Hamilton — 126.6
9. Longines — 126.5
10. Montblanc — 121.4
11. Maurice Lacroix — 117.9
12. Baume & Mercier — 111.9
13. Oris — 111.8
14. Rado — 109.0
15. Breitling — 104.9
These brands span very different price points. In my wholesale and retail experience, the mid-tier luxury names here have pushed prices beyond what many customers will pay. Too much unworn stock is competing for the same buyer, and dealers have to discount to move it.
Breitling deserves attention. Alongside the new and unworn Breitlings on the secondary market, I’m seeing many recently manufactured Universal Genève watches offered through private parallel channels, with more waiting in the wings. Universal Genève is a sister brand under the same ownership.
Swiss export figures put this in perspective. According to FH industry statistics, Switzerland exported 29.8 million watches in 2011 and 14.6 million in 2025—a 51% decline. Over that period, wristwatch export value rose from CHF18.1 billion to CHF24.4 billion.
Much of the lost volume was quartz, so those numbers alone don’t prove a collapse in mid-tier luxury. But in the first half of 2026, export value in the CHF500–3,000 segment fell another 5.7%. Those are export prices, before retail markups.
My view: parts of mid-tier luxury are collapsing under their own pricing. The inventory ranking is a signal; the wholesale offers and discounts are where I see the pressure becoming real.
There are also scores of start up watch brands willing to fill the pricing gap for the current crop of watch buyers who don't really care whether the brand's provenance is Swiss or otherwise."
Now in fairness to you, gentle reader, I do not have nearly the analytical data on hand to match Mr. Kaplan. But as I shared with him, I am very appreciative of the work he put in as it validates the anecdotal data I've been leaning on for years. Because what I could see with my own eyes was a flood of product available at eye-watering discounts, and retailers who would often feel like they were getting spanked with a cricket bat. And I will go a few steps beyond this analysis and point to the bigger issue - over production with the ongoing practice of offloading surplus product on the grey and light-grey market.
I am, without a doubt, a skipped record on Watch Town's turntable. But it is also clear that a flock of canaries will die in Watch Town's coal mines if some of these brands can't adjust their operating practices to more closely reflect the reality that they are living in. Because as Mr. Kaplan has much more succinctly made clear to us - when you try to sweep too many watches under the rug, you'll need to invest in wall to wall-to-wall carpeting ; )
