Weird Wild Stuff...

Okay, in fairness, I don't claim to be the smartest guy in the room. And no, it's not like LVMH, Swatch Group, or Richemont have me shortlisted for a leadership role. But with that said I nearly spit out my coffee onto the screen of my not-so-new laptop. I don't claim to have intimate knowledge of the worth of things in Watch Town, but I do know a little bit. And although my high school geometry teacher was convinced that academically I represented the scholastic equivalent of the sunk cost trap, I can add and subtract.

So that is why it was more than a bit of a head scratcher to read the crowing coming from parts Swiss about the eminent triumphant, phoenix- from-the-flames turnaround, love-story triumph of Ebel version 3.0

As we say in Salem, MA - "Witch, please..."

As we're close to Thanksgiving (at least north of the lower 48), let's talk turkey! Ebel has gone through more than a few iterations:

• 1994 the original found family sold to Investcorp.
• 1999 LVMH buys Ebel
• 2003 Movado buys Ebel from LVMH for, I believe, $62.2 million yankee greenbacks - this also included Le Courbusier's  La Villa Turque, a house I have walked past more times than I have fingers and toes.
• 2026 Movado goes on the block again and this time is picked up by a consortium which includes Chanel and F.P. Journe (among others) who will control 95%, with the price being $66.5 million, meaning that the part retained by Movado is valued at $3.325 million, meaning a total value of just south of $70 million ($69 and some change) if my math is right. The big question is - who gets to live in the house ; )

But all of this begs a bigger question. And I will call upon that other great commentator on the watch business, The Queen of Soul, Miss Aretha Franklin: "Who's Zoomin' Who?"

If we compare the two most recent sales prices, the value of the brand has only risen $7.3 million or a little over 10%. But when we adjust for inflation, that original sale was worth a little south of $113,000 today (thank you CPI Inflation Calculator). And yet it is being sold for dramatically less when you factor in that inflation.

So while the folks at Movado are, in principal, taking a hit on this, when you take into account exactly how much they have going on globally, and you factor in how much Ebel has struggled - let's be honest about this, this is actually a very good deal for Movado group. They offload what can only be described as under performing, and get to hang onto 5% for auld lang syne.

And what of the three musketeers who are now riding in to save Ebel? Chanel has the dollars, F.P. Journe certainly has the horological bona fides, and Pierre Jacques has certainly spent time at the helm with De Bethune. But Ebel is a different animal. The scale and scope are completely different, and it is a brand that sits at a very awkward intersection in terms of pricing & product.

As with anything that happens in Watch Town, there is what the protagonists will tell us, and a lot that is unknown. So as is always the case, we will wait and we will see.