The Reality Distortion Field Comes to Biel/Bienne

"Hey, I'm a reasonable guy. But I've just experienced some very unreasonable things."

Jack Burton as played by Kurt Russell - Big Trouble in Little China

Courtesy of the FH

Many business journalists and psychologies have mused about what many early employees at Apple Computer referred to as the Reality Distortion Field that seemed to envelope Steve Jobs. Well, it would seem that this is not exclusive to the computer business in Silicon Valley. According to the FHS, everything is "Jim Dandy" and trending upwards! And in other news, Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy have all signed on as new Hublot brand ambassadors...

Per those bold prognosticators in Biel/Bienne (just don't ask them for a weather report, or you will be wearing your swimming trunks and sun screen during a blizzard), here is the "happy" analysis -

"Swiss watch exports suffered from a negative base effect and one business day fewer in January, posting an 11.0% fall, to 1.6 billion francs. The result for the month will nonetheless have only a limited effect on the upward trend seen since last summer and a return to significant growth is expected over the next few months."

I can only assume that they can't understand their own graph, or that the words significant and growth possibly don't actually mean what they are implying. Now as the math department at Oberlin High School will attest, numeracy was not my strong suit, but I am fairly certain that when the graph line on the chart keeps heading south, it in fact means that you are NOT improving, but rather doing quite the opposite, and upward trend typically means that the graph line would be heading, well, upward.

The House of Hayek...

Might about to be plundered.

A few others closer to the situation in Biel/Bienne have already commented in greater depth and detail, but something a wee-bit unusual was taking place in Hayek-Land yesterday.  Per Business Montres the share price had been up as much as 5% before trading closed.  But more interesting was what Business Montres reported as an increase in trade volume of 77%. 

The value of pretty much any watch brand right now is questionable, so for the small, individual investor you might be better off sticking your money in your mattress or under the floorboards.  I am no economist, but I have a difficult time believing that a large number of individuals would suddenly decide to purchase shares in SWATCH Group (or frankly any watch group) right now.  The sales continue to be poor, more brands and suppliers are on the cusp of insolvency, and it does not show any real sign of improvement.  For the individual investor it would be as sensible as taking bundles of cash and flushing them down the toilet.

But as I might have mentioned last night, what if there were some sort of "nudge" operating within the watch industry advising some major investment firms who DO NOT normally invest in things like the watch industry that perhaps, maybe, now might be the time?  This could not be some anonymous analyst sitting in the bowels of a Swiss bank.  No, this would be someone well-known, well-connected, someone whose voice would carry some weight and veracity when speaking with friends in Texas or the Silicon Valley.  Moreover someone that the investment firms could turn to to shepherd a transition.  Someone who has proven themselves, been around the block.  To quote a colleague, someone who did not magically achieve their position as a result of being born out of the same gene pool as the boss.

A few of us have our theories as to who this might be,  and for now they remain just that - theories.  And maybe, just maybe this is all a strange coincidence and those of us who have been kicking this theory around are merely looking for a story that isn't there.

Yes, a coincidence.

But the older I get, the less I believe in coincidence.